The ultimate “scare-the-shit-out-of them” ride at Fairground SA is the Great Zimbabwe Dipper. It colours, even defines, the entire South African experience.
The Zim Dipper shoots them high with its moment as Africa’s breadbasket; it dives into an economy now devolved to feudal simplicity. Then it again catapults them skyward with the land’s exceptional beauty and promise, only to plunge into disease, famine and state-sponsored violence.
Zimbabwe was Africa’s hope. It is Africa’s despair. It may be, many fear, SA’s future.
Such a possibility is on everyone’s lips because Zimbabwe has just marked 30 years of independence. Not that there was much to celebrate, with the country at its social and economic nadir with no end in sight.
Despite this, some in the African National Congress express admiration for how President Robert Mugabe has steered Zimbabwe’s destiny. Some, like ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, go so far as to promise that Mugabe’s racist, undemocratic and failed policies will be emulated here.
Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille warns that unless corruption is stopped, SA will become a “failed state”. More surprising is that the Congress of South African Trade Unions agrees with her assessment. Former ANC minister Professor Kader Asmal warns that the the “politics of intimidation” threaten to negate SA’s “greatest national achievement … our native-hewed Constitution”.
Veteran foreign correspondent Fred Bridgland, writing in Scotland’s The Herald, poses the question, clearly rhetorical in his view, as to whether SA is turning into Zimbabwe. He quotes Financial Mail editor Barney Mthombothi’s view that “hardly a decade from now, Zimbabwe will be our destination, our reality”.
One cannot credibly take issue with Bridgland’s litany of SA’s woes. The problems are significant but are by no means insoluble, given responsible leadership, good governance and a nation committed to a shared future.
The undercurrent, however, to fears that Zimbabwe is the template for SA’s future, is that sound government is simply not achievable in Africa. Sometimes this is couched in racist terms: black Africans are innately barbarous and lack the intellectual resources needed to run a modern state. More often, though, the negativity is not racist but rather a paralysing despondency borne of the magnitude of the task, the scarcity of resources, and the ineptitude of the government.
Bridgland, in fact, distorts for effect what Mthombothi wrote. The quote above was prefaced by the omitted words: “We need to wise up and change course, or …” Although Bridgland flatters the FM by describing it as SA’s equivalent of The Economist, he is right about Mthombothi being “one of his country’s finest journalists”.
The sensible response to the “dreaded Z-word” debate lies in the observation by Mthombothi — who though unflinchingly critical of recent developments is no Afro-pessimist — that “Mugabe didn’t usurp power. It was given to him by the electorate.”
This is important to keep in mind when comparing the two countries. Assuming no coup d’etat, the question in SA is, how likely is it that voters will give power to a Malema-like president?
Forget President Jacob Zuma’s florid words about Malema’s supposed presidential potential. The reality is that Malema barely commands a majority in his uncouth league, never mind the kind of sway in the broader tripartite alliance that could see him — or his ideological surrogate — as king, rather then merely one of a number of kingmakers.
Not only is the ANC not Zanu-PF, but the SA electorate is volubly engaged in events, whereas in Zimbabwe many withdrew from political discourse after independence. SA also has strong democratic traditions — the United Democratic Front’s non-racialism; the influence of the churches, unions, judiciary, business, and the media — and opposition parties are well supported.
One cannot categorically dismiss the Z-word, but if citizens stand up for their rights, meltdown is not inevitable.
Unless the ANC denounces Mugabe, Zim is the most probable SA future. What is wrong with our leaders? Why is Mugabe’s way so attractive?
“the question in SA is, how likely is it that voters will give power to a Malema-like president?”
The answer is that we have already given power to a Mugabe-like president, if not Malema-like. He is systematically and progressively dismantling the judicial system. He has subverted it to prevent his prosecution. He has appointed a crony as head of police and an incompetent friend as national prosecutor; he has dismantled the scorpions. He has released his convicted fraudster friend from prison under the pretext of that the man is ill. Under his watch the judicial services commission has been compromised. To date, Hlope still goes free. He has appointed his friend as Chief Justice. We are beginning to hear threatening noises about land reform. Cadre deployment and corruption continue apace.
All indications are that his people will elect him again, possibly with an increased majority which will allow changes to the constitution.
We don’t need to elect a Malema-like president to become like Zim. We’re already hurtling down that road, and only the Black electorate can stop it. The million dollar question is: Will they? I am not overly optimistic that they will….
Why SA will not turn out like Zimbabwe:
- SA has a vibrant civic and intellectual society to act as a counterweight to totalitarianism
- SA has a strong industrial/ trade union class and is less prone to the Maoist rural indoctrination used by ZANU-PF
- SA’s minorities, both racial and political, remain politically engaged whereas the unspoken ‘deal’ in Zim was for minorities to withdraw from politics completely and focus on business (a recipe for unmitigated disaster if there ever was one – watch this space – the minute the ruling party suggests that minorities no longer have a legitimate political voice we have a problem – Houston style)
- SA’s large urban middle class of all races which is the main tax base and is a stakeholder which the state alienates at its peril
Why SA may turn out like Zimbabwe:
- Zim’s education system is way ahead of SA. Voter ignorance will only benefit those who aim to pillage SA to their own benefit
- The elite in Zimbabwe may be less toxic and have less greedy desires than the super-capitalist racial nationalists in SA – their expensive habits and BMW’s take a lot of taxpayer money to keep up
SA’s headed on exactly the same trajectory as Zim. No doubt about it.
Just like your leader Zille, your fear based politics, get us nowhere. Its been almost TWO DECADES since liberation and what we have certainly learned from Zimbabwe is that, waiting yet another decade for land reform isn’t going to make any difference. The process of LAND REPARATIONS needs to begin immediately to PREVENT another Zimbabwe.
Nowhere else in this world would the concept of the previous oppressors continuing to own over 80% of prime real estate, be ever tolerated, especially so many years after liberation. In fact, in most other liberated countries, the previous oppressors had to make a hasty exit. Yet, here in SA, due to the graciousness of the previously oppressed, we still strive towards that Rainbow Nation envisioned by Mandela. Articles like yours only serves to further polarize instead of helping the transformation process.
“if citizens stand up for their rights, meltdown is not inevitable.”
Absolutely, so rather than fear-mongering, tell us what LAND REDISTRIBUTION ideas you have that can help avoid “another Zimbabwe”. By not actively engaging in transformation, the white minority are SELF-CREATING their very own Zimbabwe, or even worse, right here in SA.
Yes, those of us in favour of the constitution — the constitutionalists — must stand up and be counted. Making sure that the World Cup is a success is the first thing we can do. Fly the flag! Wear the t-shirts!
South Africa isn’t Zimbabwe! Our destination is much bleaker but, the Afrikaaner, the Indian, the coloureds and educated blacks will fight a rearguard action against this evil
1. No “Liberation” party has succeeded. They’ve ALWAYS destroyed their countries. Examples include Uganda, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Angola
2. An Indian academic has a model showing that parties elected on ethnic lines are corrupt to the extent of their ethnicity. As our regime is elected on ethnic lines, it will remain totally corrupt. His results are significant (scientific word implying the results represent what’s happening). The ANCs increased shrieking retoric against apartheid will increase ethnic voting which will increase corruption.
3. The lack of economic growth (less than 1.4% annually since 1992) and ANC destroying jobs will lead to abject poverty.
Why worse than Zimbabwe? The ANCs contempt for the masses – An example, different my usual Mbeki Holocaust where 300 000 people were killed unnecessarily.
Crime is so bad, we don’t get crime statistics. According to the last published statistics. We have one of the largest police forces in the world, 37 Government policemen per 10 000. we also have as many private policemen, call them security guards, rapid response or armed patrols, they are a just a private police force. Crime is uncontrollable and the state police are a failure.
Murder someone and you stand an 11% chance of being charged and an 8% chance of conviction. You can also dramatically improve these figures by buying your docket
‘Fraid I agree with Chico.
We’re already far closer to national destitution than most people realise. Those of us who do, either have no voice or whisper the news.
I see some really brilliant posts here by young black SAns, who clearly see the dangers, but they aren’t politicians and have no wish to become such.
For me, what happens to Malema tomorrow will speak volumes and I was heartened to hear tonight that ANCYL members in now three provinces are backing away from him.
Our next task is to make sure the ANC realises that Zuma is not doing his bit by providing strong enough leadership.
There’s little point in providing the few advantages the poor receive if they cannot appreciate them or they are inferior; education being the point I particularly question. Free quality schooling for the needy would be good. What they receive now, they should be paid to suffer.
(Naturally, I’m generalising, which is dangerous, but I’m sure you all get the point).
Whether South Africa will become like Zimbabwe or not I cannot say. But I do know there are many South Africans who see Zimbabwe as a success, despite its current state, because the land is back in the hand of black people, simple as that. That counts more to many people than the dire economic and social situation of most of the people living there. The effects of colonialism and the Land Act have left scars generations deep, and maybe they will take generations to heal again after being opened in the case of Zimbabwe.
South Africa will end up worse than Zim because there is more collateral to damage. The current ruse of land redistribution – so animatedly argued by Dave Harris from Cape Town – is the thick end of the wedge. The reality is that SA and the world are urbanising and land is merely an easy, emotive argument.
What the majority of the population wants is their place in the economic sun; this only comes from having knowledge and experience, not land!
Boy are we paying for the decision made by the ANC geniuses in the 80′s: “Liberation before education”.
Well done Winnie.
I note with vast amusement that Dave Harris still thinks it is the opposition’s role in life to do the government’s work for it.
Dear Dave Harris
How much money has the Land bank wasted? How much state land is in inertia, just waiting to be handed out? Several communities I know are incapable of continuing with any meaningful agricultural activities because their land (tenure was removed by apartheid government) is now in the tenure of the state which has taken 12 plus years to get it back to the communities and even now haven’t because of incompetence.
Get out on the ground and stop being a keyboard warrior.
One further thing. It is not an issue and it should not be an issue of what colour the land owner is!! The main and only consideration should be what the new owner is going to do with that land, or what the existing owner is already doing with the land. Land re-distribution in Zimbabwe has without a doubt been a resounding success for Mugabe and his goons to stay in power.
But the cost has been that, although the land is now “owned” by the majority, the majority do not know what to do with it and it now lies fallow. The same is happening in South Africa where 90% of the redistributed land is now unproductive.
This sort of behaviour is great for votes but disastrous for the stomach.
What race do you see when you sit around the dinner table and eat a good plate of food? What race do you see when there is no food at all?? Agricultural land should be in the hands of agriculturalists and no one else, never mind their colour!
I have no doubt that most of the people commenting about Zimbabwe have no first hand knowledge of Zimbabwe itself, other than through the eyes of the media. Funny how most Zimbabweans I know have shelved any plans of visiting SA during the SWC, reason being that none is sure whether they’ll be able to bring their heads back home. Good thing about Zimbabwe is that a foreinger can park his vehicle, with windows wide-open, playing music and talking on the phone at the “most notoroous’ of places (like Mbare) at 12 midnight and still live, and yet I can’t do the same in the centre of JHB at 12 noon! I love my Zimbabwe, and would not trade it for SA. Yes, now and then I can come visit, but I chose to live in a relatively crime-free environment, despite the bad politics.
Historically, it must be remembered that Proportional Representation [PR] brought the ‘Populist Revolutionaries’ Hitler and Mussolini to power in the same name of ‘democracy’ that enables tyrants like Mugabe to both gain and keep that power
After the seemingly endless roller-coaster ride of shock, disappointment, outrage, disgust and dismay to which we are subject by ANC rule, your article allowed us, without being complacent, to draw breath.
The ANC and its ‘uncouth league’ are becoming divided. Malema is becoming boring and might well just fade into the background of ignominy.
It is Zuma (so adequately described by Chico) and the ANC itself who,if left unchecked, could pave the way to our becoming another African disaster.
Let’s give a hand to everyone who ‘fights the good fight’ by unrelentlessly resisting the corruption, nepotism, ineptitude and greed of ANC leadership, and who painstakingly pushes for an all-inclusive, just and peaceful society.
A change in mind-set?
‘Ask not what the ANC leadership have done for you.’ (You already know: Nothing!)
‘Ask what the ANC leadership have done to take everything for themselves.’ (That we also already know. Just look at them!)
Good article, dumb comments.
Nice article William… makes me overflow with optimism
@The creator – I echo the sentiment!
Creator & Sizwe, you of course have improved the quality of the comments hugely. Not.
Dari, I have been to Zim and the situation is dire. Good people, starving and desperate, yet honest, reasonable and proud, demonic leaders, greedy, fat, arrogant and uncaring. Sounds like SA in year or two to me.
Po, those who think Zim is a success should be made to live there for a year and be paid in Zim currency.
Good luck!