When Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille confirmed to the special unity conference of the Independent Democrats that the difference between themselves — including Cope — related to style rather than substance, it was to all intents and purposes an accurate assessment of the leading opposition parties.
Theirs is a natural fit where even differences over economic policies can easily be surmounted through negotiation.
This means that either as an alliance or unified party they could move ahead without concerning themselves with potential meltdown every time there is a budget or major policy shift.
All hands would be on deck.
Not so in the case of the current ruling party and its two alliance partners.
In terms of ideology there is a major, insurmountable chasm between the ANC, the South African Communist Party and Cosatu.
As far back as November last year Cosatu was launching a “war” against anti-left elements within the ANC, and suggesting that the next divisive leadership struggle was on the cards. This was as a result of what Cosatu perceived to be the government’s refusal to meet their demands on the economy and that certain members of the ANC’s national executive committee were seen as bitterly opposed to trade unions and the SACP.
Whereas previously the ANCYL, Cosatu, the SACP and the left wing of the ANC had stood firm — with President Jacob Zuma against former president Thabo Mbeki — the lines have now become somewhat blurred.
At that time, in November 2009, the main clashes involved the South African Communist Party and the African National Congress Youth League — arising out of differences between league president Julius Malema and Jeremy Cronin, the SACP deputy general secretary. This reached fever pitch at the SACP special conference in Polokwane, when the SACP crowd heckled the ANC and ANCYL delegates.
Noteworthy as well at Polokwane were the words of SACP General Secretary Blade Nzimande and Cosatu General Secretary Zwelenzima Vavi, which were symptomatic of the fact that both were feeling frustrated at the lack of rewards for the alliance partners after having helped Zuma to achieve the presidency.
Considering the fight that they put up for Zuma they were not wrong.
Subsequently there were disagreements over, inter alia, the following: lifestyle audits; general economic policy direction; claims that the ANC did not come to Gwede Mantashe’s defence when he was attacked by the ANCYL; claims that there is a group plotting to unseat Zuma; Cosatu’s less-than-warm welcome of both the State of the Nation address and the budget; claims that there are those who are already hard at work on the succession debate and even Zuma’s failure to name and shame the individuals concerned.
These are symptomatic of the problem and by no means exhaustive.
Unfortunately for the members of this alliance this is not something that can be cured with meetings or at all because — other than at election time and while looking back fondly at the road they have travelled together — they really don’t have that much in common.
Theirs is by no means a natural fit.
In truth the ANC in terms of ideology is far closer to the members of the DA-Cope-ID alliance than it will ever be to its current partners.
The only way that they could overcome this is by the SACP and Cosatu keeping their names but abandoning their policies. Because in reality their ideology is a million miles away from that of the ruling party and in accordance therewith the source of much discomfort at party conferences.
Whether these three decide to finally go their own way or form natural alliances only time will tell.
What is clear is that if the opposition alliance gets its ducks in a row it could deliver to the people the clear mandate of a natural alliance with all the proof in the world that unless South Africa deals with the major issues right now we are headed for a kleptocracy, perhaps run by a leader who considers calling for the murder of farmers part of politics and who seems to take pride in upstaging Zuma every time the president gets the government back on track.
In accordance therewith the new alliance has everything going for it and will see tangible results in both the municipal elections next year and the national elections in 2014 unless it dithers and debates while direction is needed.
Depends how you define the ANC.
The current leadership of the ANC are a sleazy gang who are almost indistinguishable from the crooks and slimeballs of the DA and ID.
CoPe failed dismally to develop any ideological content and therefore trundles along behind whoever will provide leadership.
However, the actual nature of the ANC — the membership and the reason why people supported it in the 1980s and 1990s and even down to Thabo’s departure — is completely different from the DA and ID and even from CoPe as it currently exists.
Point is, what you are proposing, Mr. Trapido, is that the ANC should sell out to the white right, which is not altogether unlikely but not desirable either.
Incidentally, don’t confuse what the SACP and COSATU say, with what they do and believe. The SACP and COSATU leadership are the most right-wing and corporate-friendly people in the Alliance; they put Julius and Jacob in the shade. That’s why no newspapers look into their backgrounds or report on their shenanigans; they are trustworthy tools of the ruling corporate class.
You right michael they have a meeting of minds. That of being also rans to ANC.
If you think the people of limpopo will vote for Zille you got another thing coming.These parties are like a mouse caught in a glue trap- struggle they will but ultimately they face a sticky end.
People on these blogs should put on another hat should they want to dislodge the ANC.Anc delivered on freedom and will milk this for years to come.
Sowetans , steve bikos grandchildren voting for Zille and ANC leftovers called Cope- that will be the day
Stranger things have happened – especially when communities are being deprived of land and water by mining. Sewerage is being piped to their houses instead of fresh water and access to houses is still an emp
an empty promise. Never mind all the other ones made for the last 16 years
Kleptocracy. Would you say that the theft of R100 Billion would qualify SA as an official kleptocracy, Traps? Check with the Auditor General for the exact figure but my estimate is R100 Billion based on the arms deal overspend, the botched COEGA deals, Eskom’s nuclear sites of the future with the ANC profiting by hundreds of millions, the unending list of illegal tender deals, the cost of Zuma’s legal bills, the theft of public pension monies (E. Cape especially), the mess at Home Affairs, the travel-gate scandal, the involvement of senior government officials in businesses that are receiving tax money to fund their ‘projects’, the hundreds of government officials under investigation as a result of ‘qualified audits’, etc. And those are only the ones that have come to our attention through the media!
We are not on our way to becoming a kleptocracy; we are living in a kleptocracy. In fact, it would seem that the primary qualification for an ANC cadre is the ability to profit illegally from as many government transactions as possible. No government department is free of corruption it seems. Even SARS is now being exposed as corrupt! We really should have a full accounting from both the AG and Statistics SA on exactly how many government officials have been, are, or have been suspected of being involved in corrupt practices, irregular tenders, unbalanced accounts, etc
It is rather naive to think that blacks will ever vote in huge numbers for DA and its allies. But if they are disgruntled, seeing what the ANC is currently doing, for whom will they vote? They can of course refrain from voting altogether, but this still means that the ANC will win except at a lower percentage. The current leaders understand this very well, this is while they are so brazen and say that they will rule forever. So we are sitting on an express train speeding towards a deep abyss and no one can stop it…
It seems to have taken you a long time to realise that “liberation” allies of a different social conviction (communist, socialist, “liberal” = free market?) cannot be partners forever.
I have said it before and will repeat it over and over: SA is moving from a “oppressor vs oppressed”, “black vs white” society to a “rich vs poor” society.
The latter requires the unbundling of the tripartite alliance. They have become uneasy bed fellows. This has made the ANC a dictatorial movement, not unlike the NP had become in his later days.
The ANC could logically split into a Communist party, a labour party and the remnants could join COPE or call themselves the liberal party.
At election time we could see a coalition government emerging where serious social issues would be discussed in parliament instead of in Luthuli House, where succession battles within parties would not directly hurt proper governance of the country.
I look forward to this.
Creator is confused. Compared to the people of the ANC, the leadership of the DA and ID are angelic. I challenge him to name one sleazeball in the DA and ID with substantition.
Haiwe tigere, your people will abstain from voting while those who oppose the ANC kleptocracy, both black and white, will show up in angry numbers. Just look north at the MDC, who are now in the majority. It is the MDC who will be the next rulers of Zimbabwe.
@Haiwa…that remains to be seen.
The ANC may have delivered on freedom, and proceeded to wipe out any trace of other political parties’ contributions; but how much of today’s youth actually care about that?
Specifically, young black youth like myself?
Whether opposition parties go into alliance or not, my view is that the ANC’s days as a ruling party are numbered. It may take a couple of elections, but I am confident I will live to see that day.
In this information age, an evergrowing number of us is all aware of the gravy train that is the ANC and its alliance and we’re determined to put an end to it. Unfortunately, elections aren’t held everyday or you would be seeing the results of our disgruntlement already. In any event, the poor masses have already started revolting and are leading the way…we shall only serve to reinforce their numbers come elections.
Great article traps. I agree with you 100%. The ANC, like Haiwa suggests, is definitely milking the ‘delivery of freedom’ for all that its worth. The problem is they haven’t seemed to be able to do much after that & the masses are getting restless. I think its about time for a strong opposing alliance. I think the ANC, unless it gets its act together, has seen its best days already. Getting its act together requires a serious look at the tri-partheid alliance, which as you say is not sound.
Interesting analysis / theory, Traps – you have articulated something that I have been thinking about for some time.
Haiwa is regrettably correct that Politics in SA will continue to be identity and race-based for some time – especially for the “masses” that lack education, resources and basic services (NOT THEIR FAULT!).
The masses would probably not vote for a Zille or a De Lille just as no matter how accomplished the likes of Trevor Manuel, Pravin Ghordon, Gill Marcus and Rob Davies might be, none of them can ever realistically aspire to lead the ANC.
However, the masses might just possibly vote for a Mamphele Ramphele (especially Steve Biko’s children, Haiwa, who happen to be rather closely related!),OR a Cyril Ramaphosa should a prominent and credible figure like this lead an opposition alliance.
I am convinced that one of the reasons that the ANC keeps COSATU and SACP in the alliance and allows them far more influence than their electoral support qualifies them for is that they look at the MDC’s growth in Zimbabwe and do not like what they see.
Cosatu as a broad based working class policial movement in opposition to the ANC?
Look at Cosatu’s stated position on Zimbabwe corruption, HIV / Aids, business interests for politicians, nationalisation and government tenders – pretty similar to that of the ID and DA, and light years away from ANC.
What we really need is for the electorate to vote based on policies ideologies and issues, not race or personalities.
Thanks for the felicitous idea of a natural opposition alliance, Michael. On the other hand, it matters little at this stage where the ANC sits ideologically. As we have seen, this can flip as briskly as the proverbial coat-tail in the wind.
South Africa is now 16 years down the line since “liberation” and showing many of the symptoms shown by Zimbabwe in 1996: widespread disaffection – and the same reactions: people finally looking for viable alternatives. Three years on in Zim, and the MDC burst onto the scene – the product of just such a mix as Cope, DA, ID, UDM now envisaged – and beat ZANU at the polls.
The frisson that sent through the ANC and other SADC leaders inspired Thabo Mbeki’s quiet diplomacy with Mugabe: you should’nt do such terrible things to your country, but we will not lift a finger at your (wink, wink, well done brother comrade, we don’t want that sort of thing back home!) repression of the MDC.
Especially now, when the ANC is under increasing pressure, Zuma’s Zimdiplomacy may appear to get somewhere, but then, who wants wholesale slaughter across our borders during the WC? Please postpone that to a mutually more convenient time, when your carefully nurtured dogs of war are released.
What does all this have to do with opposition alliances in the RSA? Everything.
Growing police authoritarianism and militarisation are clear signals that the ruling party will not look kindly on meaningful challenges to its hegenomy
I believe that you got it wrong Traps, the DA and the ID can fit in the cap for the protection of lilly-white apartheid gained interests because that is their main objective of existence, the DA for example is vehemently opposed to progressive transformation policies but is engaged on meaningless soothing lip service which is uttered to reverse the positives gained so far with “democratic rhetoric”. My guess is, this proposed alliance which Traps is propagating will kill COPE which is still unsure whether AA,BBBEE and other policies are correct, the UDM will suffer the same fate as COPE because the black majority will never support the DA which is clearly oppossed to the above mentioned policy positions. the flame of the DA’s rightwing outlook will engulf all and after some few years only the DA will be left intact/ standing.
As for the tripartite alliance, well, Traps you must be reminded that they are historically part of the mass democratic movement and they share a lot in common, they participated like glue during drafting of the freedom Charter, even if COSATU was literally not there it supports the Charter this day. the differences and spats might be construed as internal policy contestetation and influencing symptons emanating from the notion that the ANC GOVT might be under the influence of western POWERS.
I hope you will agree with me that the DA is the common enemy of all in the ANC led alliance. Its a binder.
I think it could work, although I would not hold my breath! Those who believe that blacks would never vote for the DA are usually disgruntled blacks themsleves and I offer that the swing has been more significant than they acknowledge since 1994. My question is, what is the reason for a black voter not voting for a white politician who is far more sincere about that particualr black person’s future than the alternative? If it’s not a lack of political sophistication, then it must be based on colour, and if this is the case, is it not then racism? Just a thought!
I’m pessimistic. I do’t believe the ANC will allow themselves to be voted out of power.
They have loaded every government department plus the police and army with their members. The ANC will have learnt a few tricks from ZANU-PF and will swop ballet boxes where needs be
I could almost see COSATU joining that alliance, if it gets fed up enough with the ANC. Most of the families and friend might then also join that vote. The point is not to vote for the DA, but that all who vote for anyone in the alliance can be sure they vote as ‘one’for individual parties.
Gary – while I hear what you’re saying, and would have agreed with you wholeheartedly a year ago – my opinion has changed on talking to a few black people before the last election. They were thinking of not voting at all because they were dissolutioned with the ANC, but they believed that a white-lead political party may bring apartheid back! I was bowled over – I couldn’t believe my ears. Its either a deep-seated fear of the oppressive rule returning, or rhetoric that has been spun in the townships.. I truly believe a bit of both are to blame. The average township dweller is thus between a rock and a hard place & doesn’t know who to believe.
I tend to disagree on this one Mike. The reason is the difference between the ANC and the rest is that , ANC can be oppositions within the ANC and that in encouraged. What is perhaps more disturbing is personal attacked and engaging each other in the media instead of using the party structures.
The biggest reason why people like me with continue voting ANC is that when I have issues of service delivery , the ANC fights with me. I do not see the DA and other parties in my township. Everywhere is the ANC protesting , ANC promoting , ANC , ANC and ANC.
If these 3 parties can admit that they are the same , what are they saying to the voters? we can vote for any of them ? or what?
How are they different to the ANC in terms of policy? if at all?
So the dominance of the ANC needs to blamed at opposition parties , cause they do not , I repeat they do not offer any alternative.
They will always sight Julius Malema in their debates , do you know any other Youth formation that is active?
Does what Julius raised in a number of occasions wrong? if so please explain to be what wrong with him raising the issue of Nationalization of mines?
Nah things don’t change in Africa until the so called liberation party either collapses or a coup takes place. At present the education of the average South African is too low for the majority to discern and so like any other African country SA’s decent into anarchy and chaos will increase in pace and unfortunately this country is well on the way to meeting its right of passage. The good news is those African countries that have been down this road are recovering and doing well; they welcome any investment and any one who wants to add to the national revenue. And by the way as happened in Zimbabwe, once your production intellect and capital leaves the country the rest crumbles.
It’s really daft that people can believe that a merger of DA, ID, UDM & COPE would be a white dominated party that wants to bring apartheid back.
The old Nat party, who invented apartheid, are now merged with the ANC. Kortbroek, who is still in cabinet, was a apartheid-supporting student leader in the ’80s, when most of the whites in the DA were anti-apartheid activists.
I think COSATU and SACP should cool it with their socialist rhetoric and fanaticism, and just break away from the ANC, form a new “labour” party based on the british or italian model and challenge the ANC. ANC would rather lose the elections than implement the left’s demands.