I thought that you lot might find it interesting to compare the results of the African National Congress and Democratic Alliance in the 2009 election with those that they achieved in 2004. I have also thrown in the numbers for the 1999 ballot for the statistically insane. This relates to the national assembly only.
Overall, in terms of the 400 seats on offer, the DA showed an increase of 17 seats to climb from 50 in 2004 to 67 in 2009, while the ANC suffered a decrease of 15 seats in terms of having 279 seats in 2004 and 264 in 2009. Cope has made a very respectable entry with 30 seats, while the IFP has lost 10 seats from 2004, leaving them with just 18.
Of the 17,9-million who voted (15,8-million in 2004) the ANC achieved 65,9% (69,7% in 2004), while the DA secured 16,7% (12,4 in 2004). The DA’s performance being impressive if you consider that they gained more than 4% of the total vote, while more than two million additional voters took part.
In both cases the ANC and DA improved by about one million voters: the ANC 11,65-million (10,88-million in 2004) and the DA 2,94-million (1,93-million in 2004). Cope’s arrival with 1,31-million is a significant introduction, which leaves them as the third largest party just a few short months after their establishment. It is also the largest single gain by any of the parties.
The IFP, Independent Democrats and UDM all lost in excess of a hundred thousand votes this time around, which must be of concern in light of there having been an extra two million plus votes.
I’ve also included a comparative done of the 2004 and 1999 elections, as I said above, for the statistically insane. If you compare the increase in voters for the ANC, DA and Cope (first time out) in 2009 in light thereof then all three parties should be extremely satisfied with their showing this time around. The smaller parties on the other hand will need to assess the way forward. Do they merge with bigger parties, amend their policies dramatically or fold?
The links above also include provincial results for those who really want to break down the numbers.
This is not meant as a detailed analysis but simply a look at the numbers of the past three elections.
Let’s hear your thoughts.
from 1999 to 2006 the DA achieved an average of zero growth staying static at about 1.5 million votes. between 2006 and 2009, the DA doubled its support from 1.5 million to just under 3 million votes, on the back of the profile of Helen Zille.
clearly the DA’s restructuring (2006 – 2009) brought no benefits as evidenced by the 16% brought in by the branch structures in 2006 and the 16% brought in by the bogus “constituency system” in 2009.
the DA, COPE and the IFP made significant gains in 2009, while the ANC has been on a consistant downward trend since 1994 in terms of the number of votes it has polled
and yet the fact is that COPE is taking votes off the ANC and the DA IFP and ID are splitting each others votes – one wonders how long it will be before the big cahunas realise that the current status quo is bad for business?
@ Phillipa Lipinsky
“I use the term black in its broad and CORRECT sense to include Africans, Coloureds and Indians.”
Nonsense: all residents of SA, regardless of race, are Africans.
You strike me as one of those right-on struggle bunnies (rich white girls guilty of daddy’s wealth but safe in the knowledge that daddy would always pay their bail and for the best lawyers) who I encountered at Wits in the 1980s.