I thought that you lot might find it interesting to compare the results of the African National Congress and Democratic Alliance in the 2009 election with those that they achieved in 2004. I have also thrown in the numbers for the 1999 ballot for the statistically insane. This relates to the national assembly only.
Overall, in terms of the 400 seats on offer, the DA showed an increase of 17 seats to climb from 50 in 2004 to 67 in 2009, while the ANC suffered a decrease of 15 seats in terms of having 279 seats in 2004 and 264 in 2009. Cope has made a very respectable entry with 30 seats, while the IFP has lost 10 seats from 2004, leaving them with just 18.
Of the 17,9-million who voted (15,8-million in 2004) the ANC achieved 65,9% (69,7% in 2004), while the DA secured 16,7% (12,4 in 2004). The DA’s performance being impressive if you consider that they gained more than 4% of the total vote, while more than two million additional voters took part.
In both cases the ANC and DA improved by about one million voters: the ANC 11,65-million (10,88-million in 2004) and the DA 2,94-million (1,93-million in 2004). Cope’s arrival with 1,31-million is a significant introduction, which leaves them as the third largest party just a few short months after their establishment. It is also the largest single gain by any of the parties.
The IFP, Independent Democrats and UDM all lost in excess of a hundred thousand votes this time around, which must be of concern in light of there having been an extra two million plus votes.
I’ve also included a comparative done of the 2004 and 1999 elections, as I said above, for the statistically insane. If you compare the increase in voters for the ANC, DA and Cope (first time out) in 2009 in light thereof then all three parties should be extremely satisfied with their showing this time around. The smaller parties on the other hand will need to assess the way forward. Do they merge with bigger parties, amend their policies dramatically or fold?
The links above also include provincial results for those who really want to break down the numbers.
This is not meant as a detailed analysis but simply a look at the numbers of the past three elections.
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52 Responses to “ANC and Democratic Alliance 2004 versus 2009”
Here is the spider at the bottom of the ANC’s champagne glass.
It is not that the party failed to get their two thirds, much less a boasted 70%, from an overall vote that was slightly up on the 2004 Mbeki election. It is not that the DA won the Western Cape outright and that the newcomer Cope, despite the criticism, in fact performed remarkably well.
Something unquantifiable has slipped into SA’s politics and changed it maybe more than the numbers tell. Overnight it is hard to imagine the ANC governing again with the arrogance, much less the impunity, of the past; harder to see South Africans so generously overlooking crude nepotism in government a second time. Zuma has his supporters’ genuine devotion, but his brilliance did not carry this election: the ANC’s ancient claim to loyalty and greater resources did.
The excitement of the hustings is over, along with a final naive phase of fielding a score of one-man opposition parties: SA is moving into an era of hard-fought, professional politics.
The ANC under Zuma seems curiously vulnerable in this tough new world - as if for the first time the party that was sanctified to rule till Jesus comes again has actually been put on probation.
It is quite impossible to predict the future from these results.
Cope has picked up most of the anti-ANC vote from the ID, UDM and smaller parties; this was on the basis that they would win or at least be the next opposition. How will this floating vote respond next time is anyone’s guess.
The IFP, apart from its own misrule (KZN, Home Affairs) lost the ethnic vote to Zuma. What will next time round bring.
The DA/Progs have risen from 1 seat in the 70’s but may have peaked until they penetrate the black community (but then they were once an English-only party with no chance of attracting Afrikaans-speakers).
Zuma also has a dilema: if he keeps AA & BEE in their present form - benefiting the black nouveau riche middle class at the cost of delivering to the black poor, who remain in the majority - the country may yet erupt.
I would agree with Paul especially as the DA gained the biggest portion of the youth vote. We are moving into interesting times and very exciting ones. There are going to be many changes going into 2011. I am heartened by the new dynamic and the fact that we have moved into electioneering instead on confrontation. That is maturity! Bravo South Africa for getting here so fast and so wonderfully!
Mike-did you also purposely overlooked the interesting fact that the ANC-PF lost 4% of total votes despite a record 200 million budget + madiba + sabc progaganda + a dancing populist president compared to 2004 when they had an unfriendly non-dancing president who ran a moderate,uninspiring election campaign without any razzmatazz and but still got a 2/3 majority mandate?
I know there is a lot of negativity about JZ becoming president but I’d like, if I may, to use this forum to note some thoughts about these elections and where we’re heading:
1 - 4th president in 15 years in a post-liberation African country. I’m not going to try too hard but off the top of my head, I can’t think of any others where power is reglarly handed over.
2 - Violence free elections. Sure there was the odd reported incident of intimidation and a reported killing of a Cope candidate, but compared to say Zim and Kenya last year, this was bliss. Can I remind you all of 1994 and Inkatha/ANC violence. We have come a long way
3 - as for JZ, I doubt he’s anymore corrupt than any other ANC politician. I think corruption is pervasive in the ANC and he was made a scapegoat. Why else is there no arms deal enquiry?
4 - Thabo is gone. Everyone was worried about the constitution changing 2/3rds. Let’s not forget that Mbeki was the one vying for a 3rd term as ANC president and thus controller of SA president.
5 - With him went Manto.
6 - say what you like about electioneering and telling people what they want to hear. AT LEAST HE ENGAGES PEOPLE. Thabo didn’t even give us that.
These arent rose-tinted glasses, just thoughts. And 250 words are up!
I agree with you Traps, I think for the first time in a very long time the political landscape is starting to accelerate and change. Of course we will have to thank the ANC for that. They did after all keep the constitution in tact (even when they had a two thirds majority) thereby in effect ensuring that the current democratic disposition is possible
The ANC still draws it support manly from the “liberation struggle” credentials, very much racially based. As the old hero’s are slowly passing on, a younger generation with more practical desires will come to the fore (DA, COPE??) with less emphasis on race, more on the rich/poor divide.
Scandals such as the BEE “industry”, now a 2.1 billion Rand industry (http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&ArticleID=1518-2386-2399_2507342) do assist in opening people’s eyes for the ills of a racially driven society.
In some European countries, the annual liberation festivities after WW2, have been reduced to once every 5 years and will eventually disappear.
The liberation ticket of the ANC will wear out and the party should start presenting itself as a socialist/labour movement. This will create room for middle class and rich class representations (economics based) as in most democracies in the world.
The progress of DA and success of COPE seem to indicate that this is happening.
History has already been rewritten.
ANC members take full credit for single-handedly liberating us. The ANC alone conquered Apartheid.
UDF and other parties are not silent at this “boast.”
Voices are raised to hysteria pitch ranting.
They increasingly demand ‘land’.
The Liberation Struggle politics is going ala “Zimbabwe, sadly.”
SACP yesterday - Colonialism and Capitalism is under attack. This stupidity even whilst the economy is under threat.
Why can us Africans not make life better for everyone instead of “who” are the victors of 15 years ago ?.
Grab whatever still works and then destroy it !
The ANC has noted the loss of confidence and will only get more dictatorial to maintain its control.
Africa is the example set when “liberation” movements can not manage governing competently.
Old, female, paleface on April 28th, 2009 at 7:13 am
I know that a lot of people who voted for the DA (who might have otherwise voted for the ANC) were primarily motivated to do so in protest of Zuma being the party’s candidate.
The biggest worry is that the DA has too much power. Indeed it is not a bad thing to have a white party as the country’s biggest opposition but let’s face it, black people, and especially Africans, who are resident in the Western Cape are in big trouble. We are talking about a woman (Zille) who refuses to acknowledge the blindingly obvious fact that blacks are the poorest in Cape Town, the most unemployed and discriminated against whilst whites are obviously the wealthiest. But Zille, together with “Solidarity” have mostly emphasised “white poverty”. I saw a taxi with the DA stickers on and the driver (an African man) was proudly wearing a DA T-shirt. I’ve seen a lot of blacks (Africans & Coloureds) wearing DA shirts and when I ask them what the DA has done/will do for them they can’t give a straight answer. A young black girl said she was a Masters student and that she was angry with the ANC becuse it undervalued Humanities graduates and left them poor and unemployed. Some poor people say that people employ foreigners because they are easier to exploit and that’s why there was xenophobic violence. People are really concerned about illegal immigrants (3million nogal!) & unemployment.
I disagree, Paul. The ANC ran under the greatest possible disadvantages, wholly confused, and still managed to get roughly what it got in 2004. Zuma has much more control and authority within the ANC than his predecessor had, and there are no longer any internal critical structures — the SACP and COSATU are on board, the open critics have all been kicked out, and the media are much more sympathetic to Zuma than they were to Mbeki.
Basically, what I’m saying is, I think the DA’s success in the Western Cape is an artifact which won’t be repeated, whereas the ANC’s success is structural. I agree with you that the ANC has changed for the worse, but a change for the worse doesn’t mean a danger of losing power.
Other people are obviously worried about inequality.
What I find interesting was how white people generally voted according to their race. Little over 92% of whites are said to have voted for the DA whilst an overwhelming 15% of Africans voted for the DA and less than 72% for the ANC. One can hope that the ANC will now accelarate transforamtion. Blacks want jobs, to be treated with dignity and consideration in their own country and to have as fair a shot at success as everybody else. It is alarming that 500000 tertiary graduates are unemployed. Unemployment amongst educated blacks is conservatively estimated at about 23% and at abhout 4% amongst whites. New recruits are overwhelmingly white. With the countrywide devaluing of Humanities skills, blacks suffer the most. White Humanities graduates have it easier when it comes to finding employment. And what has the DA done. It will indeed be a dismal 5years for black South African Capetonians. A dsmal 5years indeed!
The ANC, for all its denials, was pushing hard for the 2/3rds which, thankfully, never materialised. Hopefully we can now have 5 years of constitutional normality. I’m looking forward to seeing how the ANC behaves in relative to the Western Cape. I foresee budget cuts and delayed payments from national government as part and parcel of the fight back against the DA’s gains.
Its a pity the food-for-votes was not investigated more thoroughly by opposition parties. I believe the fear factor would have played a crucial role in the rural vote.
Some very interesting stats there Traps. It is easy to tell the following;
Cope and DA delivered some knock out punches at ANC with the most painful punches coming from COPE.
ANC managed to stabilise itself by perforating the heart of IFP.
DA also knocked out ID and probably Minority front.
Cope also seems to have been responsible for suffocating UDM.
DA seems to be the sole beneficiary of the estate of the late National Party.
FFP is the only party that maintains a natuaral growth. It is the most stable party so far. The last man standing so to speak.
Where did the PAC votes go? This is a tough one. PAM took just a small pinch, ID is unlikely to have benefited from the slow and painless death of their mother. ANC is the likely beneficiary of this deceased estate.
Christianity is a fast growing religion but the christian parties are all on the sliding slope. Is it possible that Rev Zuma , Rev Dandala poached a lot of christians from the other reverends?
What about the other new kids on the block?
NADECO and PAM suffered from inheriting a very poor deceased estate.
APC is heading straight to parliament but where did they get their votes?
Any party that is in government will always have a challenge of doing a balancing act. We have the majority community fighting for economic freedom and the minority fighting for protection of what they have, so any party will have to choose between the needs of the two.
If the ANC want to rule till Jesus comes it will have to prioritize the needs of the majority first (at list for the next 10 years) They might still earn 60% and maybe above, but on the other hand they will loose some of the minority votes.
The DA on the other hand, if they want to penetrate the illusive but crucial black votes , they need to come across that they take their issues seriously , by way of supporting the BBBEE , AA and Land Reform or any other mechanisms that seek to address the inequalities of the past , but this will have a huge negative impact on their current constituency.
We have COPE on the other hand, who I think will be stagnant or increase by small margins of votes as they to be caught in this dilemma of satisfying all.
The notion that people have moved from voting about the past is the fallacy, cause the reality of the situation is that not much has changed since the darn of democracy.
Look at the celebrations held yesterday, all provinces had them in stadiums and they were packed, but WC had it in the hall which was almost empty.
@Phillipa - the DA, and its previous incarnations are the longest surviving political party in SA.
The leaders of the DA/DP have always been a non racial party, and outspoken about apartheid, and discrimination. The fact that it came into existence as an opposition party to the Nats in a time when only whites could vote is irrelevant.
Another important fact is that many whites were brainwashed by the apartheid regime, and since 1994, most of this brainwashing has become ineffectual. Some have remained with the more conservative parties like FF+ but the majority now accept the existence of a non-racial democracy, and have chosen their new political home in the DA.
My guess is that this is because of the leftist/communist leanings of the ruling party, and many of the smaller parties, while the DA’s policies tend more towards a free market economy with slight socialist leanings. Many white South Africans are acutely aware of the suppressive acts perpetrated by communist regimes around the world, and we value the freedoms that our constitution provides for, and hence our reluctance to support the ANC.
Making our voting choices a purely racist issue is a red herring designed to discredit the opposition parties, and those who vote for them.
I disagree with Paul when he does not credit Zuma with contributing anything the ANC victory. No politician could have survived all that was thrown at Zuma and prevailed. KZN alluded both Mandela and Mbeki and Zuma won it convincingly. WC was never won by ANC outright. It was only with the help of NNP that ANC governed WC.
Simple and objective reasoning is that the goal of contesting elections (just like in sport)is to win. Unless you support the Gauteng Lions wherein you play to lose. I do not understand why are we saying COPE has achieved any success, except failure. Did the DA not put up posters that read “vote to win”? According to my standards a pass is above 50%. There is not difference between 7% or 16%. They are both dismal performances.
How can it be said that the DA improved from 2004 when the ANC still achieved 4 times the votes achieved by the DA?
Why are ANC black voters accused of “blind” loyalty when the DA white voters are not accused of the same crime? Why did white voters not vote for COPE even after COPE agreed to do away with BEE and AA? Why has the DA not targeted KZN - the province with the biggest population but targeted Wastern Cape, the province with the 5th biggest population. Was it not because of race and cultural demographics perculiar to WC? In that case, how is the DA different from the Freedom Front Plus?
The DA did well in the Western Cape and got the votes of most of the minorities across the country. It is interesting that a lot of minorities votes DA rather than ID, MF or FFP. This together with claims that the DA got the majority of the new voters vote must be good for the party. However, it must still ask itself why it is not getting more black support? We will not know if the “Stop Zuma” Campaign cost them 2-5% of black votes or won them 2-3% of the minorities vote.
Cope, according to some analyst got more support from working class black communities that would suggest that they are more of a threat to the traditional ANC support base and that they could not convince other minorities/middle class voters. Was this largely a result of internal ANC squabbles or “poor people” giving up on ANC? We don’t know and if they are an ANC-lite (just disgruntled ANC members with disgruntled ANC supporters) what would happen if they lose momentum, disband or join ANC before next election? What does the figures then say - ANC + COPE is potential next ANC vote?
The ANC lost ground in all the provinces except KZN. How much did the Zuma factor help them? Would another candidate have lead to less support for Cope (Polokwane losers’ theory) and more for ANC?
They are have been given a chance to run the provincial government in the Western Cape. At least give them the benefit of the doubt in the same way that I am giving it to the ANC.
The fact of the matter is that the ANC have only themselves to blame for losing the Western Cape.
Kind Regards,
GS van Zyl
PS - It seems to me that you have a severe negative prejudice against anything that can be connected to whites - luckily for us Mandela did not share this unfortunate attribute of yours.
At the end of the day the elections are over and it would be interesting to see how Cope position itself as an opposition party and what the DA does with WC. In would also be interesting to see how the ANC deals with Cope in parliament and the DA in government.
Will Cope leaders take to the opposition role in parliament (less perks) or would some be tempted to go back to ANC - will ANC take them back. Will their supporters stay or go with leaders? How do they maintain momentum - they are outside of government and so far not part of any coalitions, will they be vulnerable to same opposition dilemma where they only critise and have nothing to show for it? Will potential poor performance of ANC and more ANC defections before next elections be enough to build support?
What is the meaning of the “devaluing of Humanities skills”? If the ANC is doing this I can only applaud the ANC.
We are a developing country and what we NEED is a large number black engineers, artisans, builders ect. ect. qualifing each year. It will be them that will lead the the black population to equality - not those with “Humanities skills”
Kind Regards,
GS van Zyl
PS. Go read Ayn Rand - Somewhere between her views and yours the truth can be found. The world you live in seems a bit lopsided.
The most impressive part of COPE’s achievement is the fact that one cannot deduct from results per voting station whether the particular voting station is in a previously white- or black area. I have done the exercise in the Tshwane Metro and it is amazing how the ANC gets overwhelming support in “black” areas while the DA gets overwhelming support in “white” areas. COPE however gets steady support in all areas, with the exception being areas that have become cosmopolitan (Sunnyside, Arcadia, Pta West), where COPE support is higher than anywhere else. This means that COPE has already succeeded in drawing support from all racial groups, changing our history of racial politics and uniting South Africans like no other party has been able to do before. Interesting one to watch for the future!
Phillipa, you are conveniently ignoring the fact that the mess in the Cape Province has been created by the ANC, they are the ones that neglected the province,as well as neglecting everything else in the country, yet you expect the DA to overturn things in five years. Mark my words, your dear ANC will do its upmost to sabotage the DA.
The reason why the ANC votes (percentage, not actual votes) went down is more about high voter turn out of people who did not bother to vote, particularly in 1999, the whites and middle class in general who normally vote for the DA, thus altering percentages. In fact the actual loss of votes could be to Cope rather than the DA, that is, black people who previously voted for ANC voted for Cope. The actual votes that the DA gained were from the smaller opposition parties mainly ID (Coloreds) and FF+ (former NP conservative voters who went to FF+ rather than the DA when the NP collapsed. The bottom line is that the DA did not take votes from the ANC, their rise could be attributed to the participation of all those who never voted for the ANC before (either not voting or voting for other parties) who saw in Hellen Zille somebody who had a potential to unsit the ANC. I am looking forward to a day when we will have two main parties where the main opposition will have more than 40% of votes and the ruling party limited to under 60%. When that happen we will know that the racial patterns are over.
@ Phillipa Lipinski
Could you please quote your source stating that 15% of blacks voted for the DA? If your that were true, and we add the 92% of whites, the DA would have achieved more than 23% of the vote nationally. I am unable to find a single voting station in Tshwane Metro that is located in a previously “black” area where the DA achieved more than 4% of votes cast.
@ Phillipa— You make it sound like it is against the laws of the world for a person of colour to vote DA.Get used to it-you will sometime in the future as well.You are still young –There are a lot of DA votes still left inside you.In any case,in 5 years time blacks in the Wcape will be better off than their Brothers in the Eastern Cape where the ANC has been mismanaging for the last 15 years or Mpumalanga or the Freestate or……….you get my drift.
The DA managed Cape Town for a year and they win the Western Cape convincingly. If they are able to deliver in the next 5 years in a way the ANC cannot it will be very interesting to see what happens in 2014.
Crime out of control,education in a downward spiral,endemic corruption right to the top of the ANC, Hopelessly unfulfilled promises,Incompetence and non-service delivery, Poverty worse than pre ‘94, conservatively 400 000 unnecessary HIV/AIDS deaths, corroding of the NPA and Judiciary,repeated attacks on the constitution and the fundamentals of what law abiding citizens stand for, the Scorpions….and so it goes on..and the perpetrators of this..are still overwhelmingly voted back into office !!…The mind boggles !!
Good comment ,Paul.
Maybe the ANC is just the lowest common denominator..and that is a sadness.
Hopefully,”Times are a changin!”
There is now a significant divide in the voting patterns of the rural poor and the better-informed urban dwellers. Sadly nothing will change as long as the rural traditional Chiefs can “deliver” their electorate largely en masse to the ANC as in Limpopo. So we have moved from a black/white divide to a rural/urban divide and it will be interesting to see how the nuance of this plays out. Will Cosatu accept it is now part of the urban elite and that their actions actually hurt the rural poor?
@Phillipa - Are Cape Town’s Black people not perhaps poor because they are rural people who were cynically bussed into the Western Cape to act as voting fodder for the ANC - and then abandoned. And now Helen Zille has to pick up the pieces?
Phillipa Lipinsky, I have far more faith in the DA uplifting the WCape poor than the ANC doing so. That said, I sincerely hope that the poor will be uplifted in the other eight provinces ruled by the ANC. It’s going to be an interesting few years ahead. I’ll eat humble pie if the service delivery riots don’t strike before two years are up … and I do hope I shall have to eat it!
Perplexed – you’re probably right in most of what you say - speaking negatively and possibly, like me, standing in previously privileged (probably still privileged) shoes. What about 2.8 million RDP houses since 1994, electrifying and upgrading roads in townships, hundreds of schools built - thousands more black graduates in all spheres - an outstanding economy coping more than adequately in a catastrophic world situation, highest profile sporting events happening on our door step, a film industry going from strength to strength internationally, our country highly regarded on the world political stage - we lay claim to possibly the greatest statesman of all time - a healthy tourist industry - peaceful, free and fair elections four times round - magnificent countryside and amazing weather - a fabulously diverse, interesting people - I could go on and on and on. It took me a while to step out of my “white” shoes and into the rainbow shoes of the majority of people living in South Africa. It was a painful journey - I had to take off those darkly shaded sunglasses and put on a pair of yellow tinted ones - Nope! I don’t appreciate crime one bit - or corruption - but I guess poorer folk have different priorities, particularly if they are living in a shack,(or street) struggling every day, eating bread if lucky and battling to get their children to non fee paying schools or to hospital when they need care. Let’s not become like the “when we” clan from Zimbabwe…. so unproductive and self indulgent really! Forward!
@ Andries Keun. Your use of the term “black” shows both your ignorance as well as your arrogance, Sir.
It’s actually much more than 15% of black votes that the DA got. I use the term black in its broad and CORRECT sense to include Africans, Coloureds and Indians.
@ Van Zyl: So are you saying that it’s OK for whites to overproduce Humanities graduates even though they are not necessary but that it’s wrong for blacks to study in the Humanities? White accountants are only four times the number of black accountants (after almost 350years of priviledged education you would expect whites to have done better than that and after so many centuries of subjugation you would have expected Africans to have done worse). Indians have done exceedingly better than whites when it comes to technical skills. Indian accountants and engineers are about only a quarter less than whites (Indians generally had the second best education next to whites).
There is generally a world-wide shirtage of technical skills. Not even 1st World countries are producing enough (hence the “brain drain” phenomenon in the third world). People of all races are generally more interested in the Humanities so you (van Zyl) can’t or, rather, shouldn’t say that only blacks should suffer because of their carreer choices.
I think what you’ll see in coming elections is the emergence of a new generation of voters with no real experience of life under Apartheid, if not already. These are the voters the opposition will have to work towards winning. This is where the next stage of post-Apartheid politics will be set.
Time came at the end of the Cold War for Africa’s “Second Liberation”- but not all made the transition to multiparty democracy. Some have been lucky never to have had coups (Senegal), others have made the transition successfully (Ghana).
India also presents a good example. The backlash following the “emergency” rule of Indira Gandhi in the 1970s led to the defeat of Congress for the first time in 1977- when liberals, socialists, conservatives and Hindu fundamentalists united into the Janata Party, which didn’t last but forever altered the pattern of Indian politics to the competitive environment we see today- although with a trend towards communal politics based on region, ethnicity, religion and caste.
Of course, they’ll vehmently deny it’s a form of Apartheid… but just ask Muslims in Gujarat or the scheduled castes about where they stand.
“Are Cape Town’s Black people not perhaps poor because they are rural people who were cynically bussed into the Western Cape to act as voting fodder for the ANC - and then abandoned. And now Helen Zille has to pick up the pieces?”
Bernard, i think thats a very narrow view. Its more like they moved from the Eastern Cape, which has the largest budget and the largest underspending. They came here because even though they have the biggest injection, the bulk of it disappears because of the heavy corruption which happens there anyway. So maybe because the ANC failed them in the EC and failed them again in the WC they voted DA.
You should noticed by now that there are about ten times more blacks in the country than whites (give or take). If (by your numbers) there are “only” four times more white accountants than black accountants, you are actually saying that if you are white you are 40 times more likely to become an accountant than if you are black. So if the populations were equal in numbers there would only be 2.5 black accountants for every 100. Capeech? Or am I going to fast?
You should also take note of the fact that there was various efforts by the accounting profession to train black accountants to fill the void that unfortunetly exist.
I do take note of the fact that you see it yet again as your prerogative to demean whites.
And no - I did not say that is alright for any race to overproduce Humanities graduates. What I am saying is that Universities should produce the graduates needed by the country - no matter which race. At this specific point in time there need to be a bias towards the training skills not related to the humanities, the country needs it!
The graduate with a Science degree asks, “Why does it work?” The graduate with an Engineering degree asks, “How does it work?” The graduate with an Accounting degree asks, “How much will it cost?” The graduate with an Arts degree asks, “Do you want French fries or baked potatoes with that?”
The previous two elections did not have large turn outs. These results should therefore be compared to 1994 not to 2004. People have even said that this is the first time they voted since 1994.
M&G online editors, I think I have a right to know why you arbitrarily censor some of my contributions. I get this right from the fact that (1) if you are still in partnership with mweb, I pay for this subscription. (ii) You claim to stand for freedom of expression - should you not then have the decency to inform me why you are withholding comments that do not in any way break your rules? I really am perturbed and taken aback by your actions, which smack to me of censorship, something that you as the media jump up and down about. I will not allow anyone to away my right to be an engaged citizen! Not even you.
COPEs results are very impressive, considering their virtual lack of an election campaign. Watch them closely, but I still think they are really nothing more than ANC lite. DA starting to make inroads to non-white/coloured voters (I am one of them). Very impressive by them as well. ANC- I am not convinced, I heard way too much about
Chris Hani and too little about TODAYS SA! I think that approach appealed to old ANC loyalists, and I think this will slowly change. Personally, I feel that the biggest progress in this election is a move away from purely race based politics to the addition of socio-economic divisions. DA DA DA!!!
Phillipa,
I’m curious to know whether you have a qualification - and whether you feel ashamed because you - as a white person - took away a learning opportunity from a black compatriot ?
from 1999 to 2006 the DA achieved an average of zero growth staying static at about 1.5 million votes. between 2006 and 2009, the DA doubled its support from 1.5 million to just under 3 million votes, on the back of the profile of Helen Zille.
clearly the DA’s restructuring (2006 - 2009) brought no benefits as evidenced by the 16% brought in by the branch structures in 2006 and the 16% brought in by the bogus “constituency system” in 2009.
the DA, COPE and the IFP made significant gains in 2009, while the ANC has been on a consistant downward trend since 1994 in terms of the number of votes it has polled
and yet the fact is that COPE is taking votes off the ANC and the DA IFP and ID are splitting each others votes - one wonders how long it will be before the big cahunas realise that the current status quo is bad for business?
“I use the term black in its broad and CORRECT sense to include Africans, Coloureds and Indians.”
Nonsense: all residents of SA, regardless of race, are Africans.
You strike me as one of those right-on struggle bunnies (rich white girls guilty of daddy’s wealth but safe in the knowledge that daddy would always pay their bail and for the best lawyers) who I encountered at Wits in the 1980s.
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Here is the spider at the bottom of the ANC’s champagne glass.
It is not that the party failed to get their two thirds, much less a boasted 70%, from an overall vote that was slightly up on the 2004 Mbeki election. It is not that the DA won the Western Cape outright and that the newcomer Cope, despite the criticism, in fact performed remarkably well.
Something unquantifiable has slipped into SA’s politics and changed it maybe more than the numbers tell. Overnight it is hard to imagine the ANC governing again with the arrogance, much less the impunity, of the past; harder to see South Africans so generously overlooking crude nepotism in government a second time. Zuma has his supporters’ genuine devotion, but his brilliance did not carry this election: the ANC’s ancient claim to loyalty and greater resources did.
The excitement of the hustings is over, along with a final naive phase of fielding a score of one-man opposition parties: SA is moving into an era of hard-fought, professional politics.
The ANC under Zuma seems curiously vulnerable in this tough new world - as if for the first time the party that was sanctified to rule till Jesus comes again has actually been put on probation.
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