While former president Thabo Mbeki has always made allowances for Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe, things may well take a dramatic turn for the worse for the old man when the South African delegation arrives in Swaziland on Monday. President Kgalema Motlanthe leads a local delegation and will be joined by two other members of the SADC — to be briefed by Mbeki — on the deadlock in the power-sharing negotiations.
The meeting and indeed the current impasse is, as I said yesterday, coming at a very dangerous time for Zanu-PF.
South Africans are angry at the cost of the Zanu-PF to South Africa in terms of playing babysitter to millions of exiles, running into tens of billions of rands, in order for them to continue ignoring the results of the election and making ridiculous unilateral decisions.
The power-sharing deal negotiated by Mbeki was a heaven-sent opportunity for Zanu-PF to regroup in a friendly environment. Their refusal to cede ground in order to improve their position will occasion their total demise.
Motlanthe and ANC president Jacob Zuma are staring down the barrel of wholesale defections from the party prior to the next elections. Alongside Aids, the question of Zimbabwe ranks, in every sense of the word, as the biggest failing of the party.
While the battle for the centre ground begins the ANC would achieve enormous credit by sending Mugabe and the Zanu-PF into oblivion. Indeed, they might even point out that the breakaway faction is the one that had the pro-Mugabe stance while the SACP, Cosatu, ANCYL and other ANC members were hostile.
In light thereof I note with interest Mugabe’s spokesperson advising delegates to Swaziland that SADC can’t tell him what to do.
I’m afraid his timing could not be worse and if we are to avoid landing up with another one-party state in Zimbabwe I suggest that the Zanu-PF leaders, if only in the interests of self preservation, move very quickly to appoint the Cabinet expected by the African and international communities.
Your time is up.
Very well articulated. It seems zanupf could find themselves in a place where they have never been before. Perhaps they might like to read Ian Smith’s memoirs for guidance before it’s too late.
Traps
The trouble is SADC really CAN’T tell Mugabe what to do – they can only advise. I listened to a SADC spokesman waffling on SAFM this morning. They are only an advisory body. They do have NO power.
If the SACP-ANC wants to regain some credibility – they better take some action.
Not only do SADC have no power, they have no WILL. They are not convinced they WANT to set a precedent of acting forcefully and telling Bob where to get off: What happens when they, in turn, fall out of favour?
Traditional African politeness and respect for age is a handy fig leaf.
Once again we have the same anti- Mbeki position. For all its worth the Zimbabwean problem stems not from the Land issue as is the position of SADC and the ANC Motlanthe included. It is a governance problem exacerbated by Africa’s refusal to see it as such. This is the reason that you had Motlanthe calling for the removal of targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his cronies. It stems from the de-legitimising the MDC as representative of the interests of Zimbabweans. So in this instance where all along we they have condoned can they now draw a line and separate the political or the last electoral process from the last eight years.
And is the ANC willing to prove the fallibility,dispensable, vulnerability of a “sanctified” liberation movement at this moment in time. Is the ANC willing to show ZANU PF as just another party without it itself becoming nothing special but just another party.
Traps
Morgan can’t go to Swaziland because Mugabe won’t allow him to be issued with travel documents. Just to remind you – Morgan did win that election!
What words of wisdom from you now?
It’s a nice thought, but hardly likely to happen. What with keeping the campsite swept clean of goggas and the like it is difficult to believe that in the current climate our new erstwhile President will find the time to take instruction, after all who are those that now give instruction, and could it be that he who instructs today will be the same that betrays you tomorrow?
Now this sort of kaka is enough to keep you way too busy to even think about Robert Mc Gabe and the solutions that should have been implemented forever ago. Most of this sort of thing is simply going to have to wait untill a new government is elected and hopefully the new (or re-elected?)president has balls suficiently large enough to give Mc Gabe one where he deserves it…
Lyndall – He was issued with a temporary travel document which he said (quite rightly) is an insult and further proof of games being played.
MT wants the full SADC to be present.
I’m hoping it won’t be necessary and Motlanthe advises Mugabe that if he thinks SA will help him play more games he’d best think again.
Traps
Botswana says the only way out is new presidential elections. They are right – provided that they are monitored this time AND a SADC peace keeping force prevents violence.
Traps,
My understanding is that the temporary passport was issued for Swaziland and not for South Africa. This would have meant that Tsvangarai would have had to rough it overnight at O.R.Tambo, no doubt Mugabe thought that this would be worth a giggle!
I’m not sure we can count on Zuma’s ANC to do much counter to Mugabe; last week he was castigating the MDC for their intransigence, this week (while in the US) he is criticizing Mugabe.
I suppose, this is a measure of what we can expect when he ascends the throne next year.
Dave
Zuma is not called the chameleon for nothing!