Any negotiator worth his salt will tell you that when you have a man in a corner always make sure that you leave him with a back door from which he can escape. If you fail to provide that you leave him only one option ie to come straight for you with all guns blazing.
In terms of the Zimbabwean negotiations Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC as well as the splinter group afforded Robert Mugabe and the Zanu-PF a back door and a get out of jail free card all rolled into one. Yet somehow they seem reluctant to grab it, make their escape and regroup for another day. Instead we are seeing the same old posturing and intransigence that had a home in days gone by, when Zanu-PF still had a few trumps left in their hand, but which now will result in their total demise.
Just to recap their position:
Despite using every trick in the book they still lost the election. In other words a free and fair election would result in the splinter party getting more seats in parliament than them.
In terms of the presidential election the prognosis was so bad for Mugabe that wholesale murder became the only tool left in the box capable of derailing a run off.
The ballot being out of the question how does the bullet look?
The SADC and South Africa in particular are no longer going to allow this impasse to continue indefinitely. The stakes are too high financially for the SADC and the humanitarian crisis too pronounced for even the AU or UN to keep ignoring it.
In addition the cost of fighting a full scale civil war with the international community assisting the “rebels” is something that the Zanu-PF is incapable of sustaining for any length of period.
The economic position is untenable and is something that not even the Zanu-PF and all the intimidation in the world can conceal or circumvent.
So if they can’t go to the ballot and they certainly can’t sustain a shooting match what next?
What if they stand still?
This is already imploding their entire infrastructure from education to banking. Their police and army unpaid will leave them open to owning the bullets they bought to use on the population. The final irony?
In essence the Zanu-PF is playing Russian Roulette on their own where five of the six chambers have bullets.
Sooner or later their only asset ie the peaceful transition being afforded by the deal, will be considered too high a price to pay for Zimbabwe. If that happens we’ll be looking at Nurumberg revisited and the demise of the Zanu-PF. Unfortunately the birth of the MDC monocracy as well.
The power sharing deal was structured to afford the MDC day to day control of the economy. The international community needs that to be implemented. This means Home Affairs and Finance go to the MDC. It really is that simple.
Zanu-PF must step back from the abyss before it is too late.
This week?
Traps
I asked my husband some time ago what ministries he thought Mugabe should get and he replied “None- he lost the election.” We tend to forget!
When they can no longer pay the army – they will disintergrate and return to the villages. It has happened before in Africa.
There is an increasing lobby saying no more Aid should go to African states where there is no good governance, as it is used to feed the armies.
“Zanu-PF must step back from the abyss before it is too late.” Too late for what??
Economic misery is at his best: inflation at an all time high (Guinness book of records), production at an all time low, hunger all around.
What next? Let them keep negotiating? It could be safer than walking away from it.
Call in the US and AU troops to “assist” in peace keeping? Zim people can kill each other more effectively and cheaper than the US ever will.
One wonders if Mugabe has the support from some or other global superpower: US? China? UK? Russia? Will we ever know?
The whole thing has become so bizarre with poor old Thabo in the middle. African patience?
One day, someone will wake up and kill Mugabe. I hope Mugabe himself is that man.
Traps,
Of course you’re absolutely right in your assessment of the situation. Zanu-PF needs to step away from the abyss before it’s too late. But I don’t think it will.
I know you’ve heard the story of the scorpion and the frog—I’ll repeat it for those who haven’t—where the scorpion asks the frog to take him across the river to the opposite bank and the frog says, “I can’t do that for you’ll sting me and I’ll die.” And the scorpion replies, “If I sting you I’ll drown and we’ll both die. Now why would I do that?” So the frog agrees to take him across and the scorpion jumps on the frog’s back. Halfway across the scorpion stings the frog and the dying frog says, “Why did you sting me? Now you’ll die too!” And the scorpion replies, “I know. But I can’t help it. It’s my nature, you see.”
I truly hope I’m wrong and that reason will prevail. Perhaps with some intense pressure from the SADC and South Africa, and the other players, Mugabe and his generals can yet be persuaded to see reason.
But I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Only Mugabe’s death can ever break the impasse.
I take exception with you assertion that the humanitarian crises is too pronounced for the AU and SADC to ignore.
They have been doing a good job of that so far, to the extent of providing Johhnie Walker Whiskey to Zanu as they deliberatly starved their population to death.
And at the moment the Zim refugees are being denied asylum in SA because the “deal” means everybody is fine in Zim and should go back there.
And Mbeki is quoted as saying that “there is no deadlock” , just like there was no crises.
And the AU has made no statement recently about the Zim Bank shutting down the banking system so that the NGOs cant pay their staff to distribute food.
And I haven’t read anywhere in the African press (apart from Zim blogs) about Zanu War veterans and police stopping the MDC from giving food to orphans recently, stating they didn’t have the right “licences”.
And I haven’t read anywhere that the SADC were planning on sending food or doctors to deal with the widespread appearance of Kwaskiorkor, Pellagra and Cholera (amongst others) in Zim.
All whilst the EU is donating 20 million Euros that they are currently trying to get past the bankning system that Zanu has seized in order to steal everyone’s foreign currency accounts.
So, the AU and SADC are quite able to ignore the situation for another year or so and another few million dead and refugees, just like they have been doing for the last eight years.
Traps
The supreme arrogance of Bob and his Wailers (all the heavies surrounding him)has induced total hearing loss, other than a carefully filtered version of his truth. Nothing will get through.He IS the solution – it’s that simple.
Only ‘heroes’ fall on their own swords to save people and their own dignity. He never was one.It seems the measure of his success is just how many people he can exterminate, through murder or starvation, while continuing to flip the world the bird. Heartbreaking and sickening to watch.
The only ‘escape route’ is asylum for Bob and his mates somewhere in Africa, if rejected they must be assertively told that they are on a ‘crimes against humanity’ list and will be prosercuted when caught.
Nothing else at this very late stage will work and tough no nonsense talk is all they will listen to.
Brent
Zimbabwe – if it werent so tragic, with millions facing starvation, it would make a fantastic comedy.
We have HONEST (I wouldnt be able to sleep if I knew the elections were rigged) BOB, a geriatric imbicile clinging onto power with his farmer buddies (previously known as military officers). On the other side we have MORGAN, the trade unionist, not too bright but can see the opportunities power offers. In the middle, like the Jack Russel trying to catch the frisbee we have ARTHUR whatshisname, apparently a rocket scientist, but seems somewhat short of direction.
They endlessly discuss how they will all share in running their country – conveninetly forgetting who won, lost or brutally cheated in the last two elections. Supervising the party we have an ex President (who is well known for his support of quack remedies and useless submarines).
Finally we have the party venue – a tiny impoverished nation ruled over by a boy King with many wives and a collection of fiercely loyal uncles and fancy motor cars.
How can talks for a democratic solution to Zimbabwes problems take place in one of Africa’s least democratic nations? Did Bob choose the venue to show Morgan and Arthur just how other African countries are run. Unfortunately he forgot to order his minions to provide Morgan with a passport, so poor Morgan doesnt get to see how democratic Swaziland really is.