Gerard Baker of the Times of London confirms that in a snap poll held after the first Obama/McCain debate in Mississippi on Friday, the Democrat nominee proved the overwhelming favourite among women while the Republican held a significant margin among men. The columnist puts this down to the fact that McCain looks firm on foreign policy while Obama appears sharper on the economy.
This of course goes right to the heart of conventional wisdom on this presidential race, namely that if it comes down to the economy, McCain will not be the next president of the United States, while if the security of the United States comes under substantial threat, Obama will be left standing on election day.
I would humbly submit that it is factors beyond the control of either camp which will be definitive in this race and while they may respond as best they can this will not influence voters as much as their perception of which candidate is best suited to dealing with those problems.
As we witnessed after a bruising battle for the Democrat nomination, appointment of running mates and even the first debate, one thing is clear — the bounces are nowhere near as compelling as those occasioned by news on the economy or issues which affect the security of the United States.
When the issue of South Ossettia raised its head and dominated the headlines it was the McCain camp which benefited from Russian aggression in dealing with Georgia. The more protracted it became the better for the Republican candidate. In turn, the meltdown on Wall Street has proved to be an enormous bonus to the Obama camp with a strong swing to the Democrat in the polls.
Very little of that can be attributed to the campaigns being run this time out, while an enormous amount will be sourced to the perception of US voters on how historically these parties deal with these issues. In terms of McCain, the fact that George W Bush is to deficits what Moses is to religion has not been missed during the economic disaster plaguing the country right now.
As things stand there is no way back for McCain unless an earth-shattering event of global proportions were to be unleashed on the planet. Two present themselves and would occasion major uncertainty should they occur prior to election day. The first would be an attack on Iran, where McCain has been rattling sabres recently, and the other is Pakistan where the US has been carrying out cross border raids from Afghanistan to attack terrorist strongholds. With the appointment of President Zardari and the increasing anger at this intrusion in Pakistan, Pakistani forces clashed with US forces this week.
Both issues have the potential to become major focal points prior to the election and start the swing back to McCain. Of interest is the fact that the Afghanistan delegation to the UN this week tried to call upon the international community to increase support in their battle against terrorism but could scarcely muster a hearing with the global financial panic going on.
Accordingly, in terms of this election, if there is going to be a war it’s going to have to be the mother of all confrontations to shift US focus from their economy.
Where’s Saddam Hussein when you need him?
agreed Traps. I’d like to point out that I am in the U.S. right now so I’m going to give you the man on the street perspective. The debate was really good, I have to credit to both candidates in that they found found their strengths within the questions so their presentations were quite well executed.
The debates SHOULD help voters crystalize their views but, the problem is that there is a political culture of distorting facts that plays on peoples emotions which will actually define who wins this election. I intend to vote for Obama and i have friends that intend to vote for mccain. the biggest problem is that people have wrong idea about what the other candidate is going to do. E.g. ALOT of people think that Barack is a “secret muslim” and that he is “dangerous for america” and as far as Mcacin is concerned I am not sure what’s going on with him because his commercials are more about Obama then they are about what he is going to do and he lies about Obama periodically. Both candidates are playing hard ball but McCain is playing hard and dirty.
Some Obama sopporters want him to stand up and be more aggressive as McCain has been but his problem is that , this is America where Whites are still the majority and they are NOT , I repeat NOT ready to hear an angry black man who may or may not be a secret muslim tear a vietnam veteran who was tortured for his country and who has a hockey mom vice president, into little pieces. Even though he could.
the debates are great because you get to see what people are ACTUALLY about. But make no mistakes , this election is about fear. Fear of the extremists (which unfortunately here is synonymous with muslims) or the economy (which is associated with “the markets” that are so messed up but so necessary).
Alot of voters have marginal understanding of both these components and as result who ever has the most compelling sound bytes and commercials is going to win and to be more precise whoever has those things within the last few days before the polls open will win.
Pakistan? Not many know why it’s important, but there are terrorists there..get it done.
The economy? Not many know that the bailout package is actually the Govt begging thefederal reserve for a really big loan (considering that the federal reserve is actually NOT constitutionally part of the govt, we just private bankers control of the money and now we owe them a lot of money so we have to keep them involved).
Nah people are interested in quick, surface info and feelings. and the last few days before the elections that’s when you will see REAL feelings and know where this going.
“I would humbly submit that it is factors beyond the control of either camp”……..Have you forgotten that there are still persistent rumours that “9/11″ was -at best- not stopped, if not encouraged to give Bush an opportunity to come out of his initial fumbling. The Republicans could do just something similar to hold the power.
Obama — sparkling and imperious at the Democratic hustings — was incredibly flat and unimpressive in debate.
McCain, struggling with the banking crisis and the Iraq War crisis weighing him down badly, somehow easily batted away the skinny, photogenic black aspirant.
Something went very horribly wrong for the Democrats.
Come on. Admit it.
Jon – I don’t think the debates are going to be decisive. It’s going to come down to which threat the Americans believe is the greater.
Right now it is the economy and if that stays front and centre it’s going to be Obama.
If you read my post on “Hurricane Lehman” I predicted a substantial bounce for Obama who was trailing at the time.
This has translated into a 9 point lead.
If you look at the post-mortem on the debate the view is it was inconclusive.
I believe it was irrelevant for the reasons I gave above. Primarily that voters will look to the PARTY (symbolised by the candidate) who they believe is better suited to those problems.
Economy (deficits) = Dems = Obama.
American presidential elections are, more often than not, decided by the impressiveness of their sizzle rather than the substance of their steak.
Nixon didn’t shave; Kennedy did — and Nixon lost. He was the incumbent high-profile vice-president, his president (Ike) was massively popular. But he lost to a handsomer man who had shaved before appearing on television.
Obama has the world at his feet. His opponent is geriatric. The incumbent president is arguably the worst in all of American history and on the opposition’s ledger.
The election is there for Obama to lose. All he needs to do to win is to breathe through his nose and be quiet.
He didn’t do well in the debate. He lost ground.
5 weeks is a long time in politics. One does not know if the economy will still be the number one problem closer to the elections.
Iran – According to Putin, the Georgian crisis was orchestrated by the White House to help McCain. If this is true, is it possible for the White House to urge Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities? I do not believe that the US is in a good position itself to launch such an attack. The Democrat dominated Congress won’t easily authorise a war with Iran. Would the new Israeli Prime Minister who favour negotiations with Palestinians be willing to pursue this move? Recall how Olmert was crucified for the execution of the war with Hezbollah.
Pakistan – If the US insists on raiding Pakistan without permission to persue the Taliban, theoratically this would be the vindication of Obama’s stated position. McCain lambasted Obama as naive for overtly articulating such a position. However, in practice it may benefit McCain because significant voters vote on personalities rather than policies.
Mike,
Whether one is stupid or not, it was always going to be about the economy. The collapse of the US financial sector has come at precisely the right time for Obama. Of course, when he becomes President, the US coffers will be bare but that’s another story.
Palin kept McCain afloat for awhile but that bubble has now burst and the Republicans are drowning.
BL – welcome back lad. Place is far too quiet without you.
Madoda – Even though Obama said he would attack Pakistan I don’t believe for a minute that he meant it.
If it turns into something dangerous eg Nukes for Terrorists it’s McCain not Obama who will benefit.
The economy will still be front and centre on voting day unless something huge comes along.
Jon – Agreed this one is there for Obama to lose right now. All he has to do is keep breathing and hope WWIII doesn’t break out.
Pundits be it on American TV channels or British ones have tended to call it for Mcain. Unfortunately for them polls are showing that Obama connected well with the people who matter most…the US voters. Every poll has Obama outperforming McCain. Can someone explain this dichotomy? Can it be explained by McCain’s contempt of the other guy? McCain never looked at Obama during the debate. Is there something else at play here? Are some people trying very hard not to notice Obama? My grandmother taught me that only LIARS and COWARDS would avoid eye contact with the person they are talking to.
I watched the debate and, even being an Obama supporter, I felt that the debate was even between the 2 candidates.
Much to my delight, many polls showed that Obama won and that he connected better with voters. People felt that McCain was angry and antagonistic.
In speaking with neighbors and family, many just watched the first part of the debate which was about the economy. Right now, they are not concerned about foreign policy, they want to know what the candidates will do in the financial crisis.
Mike is right, if the economy stays front and center, Obama will win.
And I’ll predict that the VP debate this week will sway some voters away from McCain, for obvious reasons.
McCain
Look! I’m wearing a bracelet…
Obama
Me too
McCain
You’ve been consistently showing your naivety.
Obama
You’ve supported a war that I opposed, and it makes everyone doubt your tactic, decision making and strategic. And we’re spending billions and billions of Americans money while Iraq has billions of surplus.
hmmm
Blame game in its highest order….
My guess – for what it’s worth – is that it may all come down to two key factors: registration and turnout. My gut feel is that the Democrats will do the best job on both these scores.
Jonathan,
I agree that registration and turnout would be the key factors. Specifically, the youth vote would be what would tip the scales in Obama’s favour. Some analysts believe that the youth turnout this year is underestimated in the current polling. Most polls contact voters on fixed lines, whereas most of the youth prefer mobile phone communications.