Professor Steven Friedman, in his article on the potential direction of South African politics during 2008, looked at four possible scenarios pursuant to the charging of ANC president Jacob Zuma.
Like his astute assessments at Polokwane, where his analysis alongside Justice Malala was most welcome, his knowledge on the mechanics of democracy and the South African political arena and its players is beyond question.
As he rightly points out in his article: “The charges against Zuma raise the stakes of 2008’s political battles: they may decide not only prospects for unity in the ANC and our chances of building a stronger democracy, but whether everyone, no matter how powerful, is subject to the law.”
Prior to dealing with the potential four scenarios arising out of the above, he states: “There are four possible scenarios, whose impact on democracy would range from very positive to very negative. But the most positive is virtually impossible, the most negative is probably unlikely, leaving us to muddle along in the middle.
Accordingly, while it’s not all sunshine and roses, it’s certainly no cause for alarm.
In light of the author’s credentials and proven record, it’s very good news for South Africans and even parties considering us as a potential vehicle for investment.
In this article I propose widening the focus in sketching, what is for me, a worst-case-scenario if the division of the ANC into two competing factions, arising from this particular conflict, is allowed to continue unchecked.
It is by no means meant as a challenge to Professor Friedman, or indeed anyone else, but rather my deepest, darkest fears that may perhaps be allayed by his good self, Justice Malala or indeed members of the general public.
Accept as a given that in a more mature democracy such as Australia, Britain or the United States, I have no difficulty with the concept that withdrawing charges against a powerful political figure, based on grounds of expedience, for this is what it would amount to, would weaken the democracy, with people believing that some are beyond the law.
We are, however, just 13-and-a-bit years passed apartheid. The vast majority of our people, through no fault of their own, were not afforded the right to vote until 1994. Their experience with the “democracy” that was apartheid and events post-Polokwane are giving them grave cause for concern.
Accept also that, in my humble opinion, people in this country have forgotten, when dealing with this particular issue, not only the demographics of our country but also just how violent this fledgling democracy is. While crime is the major cause of our violence, transplanting it into the political arena seems to me merely a hop, skip and a jump away.
At present the majority of our people believe that Jacob Zuma, the champion of the poor and oppressed, is being victimised by the president and a faction within the ANC who currently hold the sway in government. They, rightly or wrongly, believe that certain elements within the government, as it stands, are using the organs of state to further their own private agendas.
Accordingly, it is not the state versus Jacob Zuma in their eyes; rather it is the faction versus Jacob Zuma aimed at rendering him powerless in the political battles ahead.
Support for Zuma comes from all quarters: from the poor through labour, right up to the rich and powerful. The ANC president was elected by the delegates, in a democratic way, at Polokwane, ready to govern but for what they perceive to be unfair singling out.
Indeed they point to many other members within the party who they claim to be just as, or even more, sullied by corruption and crime who appear to be immune from prosecution.
Which leads to ongoing attacks by one faction against the other, with the public sandwiched in between — all the while not knowing whether this is democracy in action or just another round in the ANC succession battle.
A good current example would be AfriForum’s contracting the Institute for Security Services to compile a report on whether the government is carrying out its constitutional duty to combat crime. In the ordinary course this is an example of checks and balances in motion; at present, an attack on the government and in particular its poor utilisation of state mechanisms in dealing with crime, which coincidentally the NPA just happens to form an integral part of.
Paranoia?
Maybe, but unfortunately, in my mind, this sniping may get a whole lot worse and quickly. It will feed upon itself and climax as we get closer to August — the month set for the Zuma trial. Remember, we are still basically on holiday and most groups are spread out all over the country and abroad.
What happens when they start returning to work?
The government will come under increasing attacks from labour, from the masses on the ground, in particular the poorer segments of our population and those powerful elements, within and outside the party, who support the ANC president against the national president.
Considering the other problems the government has to deal with in the ordinary course of business — for example, World Cup 2010, crime and inflation — the burden is going to prove too onerous; Eskom will not be the only one involved in power shedding.
Frustrated by the government’s refusal to back down on Zuma, increasing calls will be made to remove pro-Mbeki members and replace them with supporters of the new president.
The more effective the government is in reigning in these elements and staving off a changing of the guard, the more frustrated the Zuma camp will become. Democracy perceived to be a rich man’s toy that can be overcome by possession is nine-tenths of the law principle. When you’re in power you can manipulate the system to thwart democratic forces.
The police and army become focal points in the issue of the ANC succession debate rather than in combating crime and protecting the country.
The media will highlight the increasing tension and throw a spotlight on each incident of violence, thereby increasing the frequency thereof.
Capital flight, reduction of investment into South Africa and a brain drain the likes of which we have yet to experience are occasioned by the uncertainty surrounding the political divide and the direction South Africa is taking — the toll on the economy and thereby the ability of the government to sustain growth and stability is vastly reduced.
Which is then highlighted by the faction opposing government, which increases the struggle both inside and outside the party.
Which leaves us where?
The issues of whether we are strengthening our democracy in creating a precedent by withdrawing charges against Zuma and serving the interests of justice thereby, fallen by the wayside, replaced by a desperate need for someone or something that can bring stability.
Anyone or anything?
Moreover, the very question of whether democracy is the right system for South Africa may well overshadow other takes on what are the crucial issues facing our democracy.
I wonder what American philosopher, commentator and author Francis Fukuyama — whose 1992 work The End of History and the Last Man sees the end of the Cold War as the final point in mankind’s ideological evolution; liberal democracy is the final twist in the tail as opposed to Karl Marx’s classless society — would make of all this?
(Fukuyama has many many critics who you can Google at your leisure.)
That, then, is my worst-case scenario (my worst fears), why I believe the ANC must think long and hard before its meeting on January 7. It should set out in clear and concise terms the way forward for the party and the country, because we all know what nature feels about vacuums.
What is happening in Kenya — considered one of the most stable countries in Africa — must serve as a warning to South Africa that hubris and self-interest really are a recipe for disaster.
As I have repeatedly said, there are far brighter stars in the South African analytical galaxy — perhaps by setting me right they may go some way to allaying the fears of many of us on what lies ahead.
While you’re at it, maybe you can also predict when Derby County will go a game without conceding a goal in injury time.
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40 Responses to “South Africa — a worst-case scenario”
Michael -
The problem, as always, comes of starting from the premise that SA is a ‘democracy’. Once it is seen and accepted that SA is a monocracy - ie ruled by one party - at least the endless intellectual confusion and perhaps even some of the agonising can go away.
One of the many distinguishing features of monocracy is that it cannot, beyond a certain point, solve the problem of dissent, because it can never constitute its own opposition.
This is why monocracy degrades in so many instances into authoritarianism or outright autocracy, rather than changing towards a more open society. The examples current and past around the world are far too obvious to require repeating here.
Notice the word ‘changing’, as opposed to ‘progressing’. There is no need to assume that ‘progress’ is inevitable in human affairs, especially in the short term, which is why Fukuyama’s thesis was seen as naive. There is no escalator that moves automatically to ‘democracy’ and no country is or ever was on one. ‘Democratic’ gains can be and are frequently reversed.
Much of what happens next depends on the vision and quality of SA leadership, but as we all know vision often goes out of the window and quality is in short supply when power beckons. Mbeki could have avoided this crisis by the simple process of being a real (or proto-) democrat instead of a monocrat - have you considered that? He could have announced that he was not running again for the presidency of tha ANC.
It may not have been in the situation; it certainly was not in the man.
My fellow ANC members chose cde Zuma in full knowledge that he was criminally tainted. Now we have to live with the consequences.
It has been my view that as much as the ANC needs cde Zuma ( unifying leader, warm fellow etc), he needs the ANC more, as a sheild. He has cunningly succeded in making his personal problems a national issue.
It might be that many other such leaders are tainted, and therefore he is being victimised. We are yet to see information to that effect so that they too can be prosecuted.Thinly veiled threats about the existance of this information have been circulating for some time but nothing concrete has emerged.
Increasingly threats of grassroots violence are getting louder.Mass resistance movement, it has been called. Remember we’ve been here before. The IFP used this threats of violence effectively in order to bark more then it could bite.The Zulus will revolt, it was always said.After a while we saw through the smoke and carried on with the National Democratic Revolution, there was no civil war.
When voices are raised and revolutionary songs are sung, reason rationality and common sense are not so common. We have to sift through the noise now.
Our leaders (including the SACP, COSATU and the Youth League) must constantly be challenged with regards to whose interests they are serving. If their utterances and actions are not in aid of the National Democratic Revolution and therefore the nation, then we should have no interest in them.
Our country is relatively stable, threats of violence and worst case scenarios must not be encouraged but we cannot wish the danger away either.Rather let us confont the issues head on.
Let us remember that even the turmoil with regards to service delivery eminated from a certain political enviroment, linked to the ’succession debate’. For example, Khutsong, was fuelled by the the SACP and the Young Communist League.Splinter groups developed and could not be controlled, hence the chaos.Those who went to Polokwane seeking change, were the cause of the chaos in the first place.
We voted for democracy, this is democracy.The Constitution should be respected and the law must take its cause.This means even those who suspect foul play must bring their evidence to court to be tested.Adv Kemp attempted doing so in Bloemfontien at the SCA, with comical results.He could try again, this time the conspiracy theory should have more weight or else it will fail again.I wish him well.
Cde Zuma is a respected leader but not at the expense of all of us. If cde Hani died and we exercised restraint for the collective good of the nation, why should we fail here?
Poverty, health,(un)employment and crime are our main challenges not individuals posed for the presidency.The masses might be angry and therefore easily persuaded by song and dance but after a while they will realise that such will not give them bread and do the right thing.
We are now undermining our own collective intelligence, our will and resolve to make this country prosper.We should not do that, nor should we walk around looking for signs indicating the end our dream but rather solutions to our issues in the quest for a better life for all.
That means upholding the constitution and the rule of law, respecting the judiciary to do what the law prescribes.After all, was cde Zuma not acquitted of rape charges?Why then would the masses think that if he is not guilty of the current charges he will not be acquitted?In the same breath if he,his allies or anyone for that matter has information on anyone else with regards to corruption etc it should be brought to the fore.Why is it being with held?Does it exist?
I expect the likes of cde Motlanthe to show what they are made of in this situation. This means not hiding in obscurity, like he did when he was SG in order to preserve his own personal ambitions, but rather to lead from the fore in sorting out this political mess.They wanted to lead, let us allow them to do so.
It irks me that we are now dealing with worst case scenarios etc when we have so much to do to improve our lives.
[I digress now, fellow members of the ANCYL should call for the national conference, which was cunnigly postponed last year August, so that a new leadership can be voted in in order to start work with regards to issues that affect the youth.]
All in all, we should not fear the future. Democracy means that we as a nation should be constantly engaged in an effort to improve our living standard. Why are we allowing side issues to sidetrack us?Wishfull thinking?Perhaps.But so was freedom in our lifetime.
I agree with Paul.
Most South Africans dont really know what democracy is and need to be re-educated. Democracy in African terms is more like a Stokvel than a Kingdom. The ANC unfortunately seem to want to treat our democracy like a Kingdom. The charismatic Jacob Zuma may make a good king, but would you want him looking after the money belonging to a stokvel?
Unfortunately the ability to “think hard” to “reason” has now become unlikely.
Events are indicative of the point where the heart has subdued reason. There are only two scenario’s :
(1) The cycle escalates, erupts and comes to it’s violent and destructive conclusion.
(2) A force yielding more power intervenes and interrupts the cycle.
It is clear that no potential body with the necessary force/authority is likely to intervene.
So we only have scenario one to look forward to, the intensifying of emotions, jumping to a period of civil violence, which will either come to it’s conclusion when total victory is achieved by one party, or world authorities intervene - at this stage the violence would have to be so reprehensible and over the top to mobilize global intervention. Likely we will see a state of affairs similar to zimbabwe, bad - but just not bad enough to mobilize any greater intervention.
South Africans should really read these warning signs and think logicaly rather than through their hatred and undermining of comrade president Jacob Zuma. This case has devided the ANC and the tripartite alliance and if South Africans think its just justice at its best then one day we will wake up in a chaotic South Africa. Unfortunatley SA democracy is not 96 years old just like the ANC. People who are against Zuma were dealt harshly by members of the ANC.
Look, peace, stability and reconciliation should be superior than the rule of law. Take a closer look at Khutsong, Mbeki failed to understand that people of Khutsong want to remain in Gauteng, he acted against their wishes, he is again actingt against the wishes of South Africans to drop the Zuma charges and charge Selebi, he is playing with fire, lets face it Zuma enjoys a lot of support in this country and a case like his should have been handled with care instead of trying to settle a personal vendetta.
I am not saying Zuma never received the bribes, however a lot of people received some kind of bribes during the arms deal including Mbeki himself, and think about the impact on governance when Zuma calls Mbeki to testify for the arms deal, SA wake this is not just a simple case of counting chicken and eggs.
Kenya as a country has no stability WHATSOEVER. The Maasai Mara have been relegated to the position of tea-boy, they have been told that there is but one door towards civilisation and they must leave themselves behind in order to enter the super-structure of a society that is rapidly been conditionally homogenised and broken down like a n obsolete machine - and the so-called economic growth has falsely insinuated the fact that even if Kenya appears to be stable on paper, the loans, the trade and transfer injustices, the economic policies posing as politics etc etc have created slums (left and right) lack of water and waste sanitation, human trafficking and organ banks etc etc The government functions almost incestuously and has deprived large portions of the people re: access to facilities - the bulk of loans are pilfered within the first month and public infrastructure, education, health care, pensions etc are locked up in vaults, except and unless certain tributes have been paid into the right pockets.
Meanwhile, the Maasai and other indigenous people are forced to watch as their land is enclosed, the heritage stolen…they are being suffocated -
In other news:
Be Like Mike
Be Like Mike
Be Like Mike
As a specialist criminal attorney I think that you should do an article on Zuma’s charge sheet and tell how he is going to be found not guilty of at least tax evasion as it looks like he is in a ‘catch 22′ situation. If it was not fraud then he should have paid tax on the income.
Paul is right. A split in the ANC will create a democracy in SA and it will probably have some ‘birth pains’ but that will be a good thing for southern africa.
Dear Traps,
Sounds like u are running scared of the inevitable, nice positioning though. For all your experience and intelligence I sum up your sentiments as “Lets all be adult and pragmatic, suspend any notion of being a modern democracy - cause were not, we have the trappings and the constitution to show the world, but lets not fool ourselves lets just do the African thing man! Lets all pretend we are a happy bunch and hope the frigging place does not disintegrate cause I like my life in the sun”. Hell Traps the ANC promised the masses the ‘chicken in the pot’ the inevitable result is we are Africa, not Europe. Steven a rigourous intellectual an African, when do and did rigourous intellect count for much in the African context. Its not intellect that’s missing its simple history look at the continent and forecast forwards from that perspective. Now that’s pragmatic and adult!
Geeze boet is this the best you can do? All this civil war, violence, yada – yada, don’t you get tired? And who do you take us for, savages?! These uncivilized blacks are going to kill each other over Zuma. This is the crux of your argument Trapido, hiding behind some long winded words does not absolve you of your low (and racist) regard for black people. FYI we have more important things to worry about, like good educations and jobs.
Who is this “majority” you talking about? The last time I checked, 40% of ANC members voted for Mbeki, and Zuma has no support among Coloureds, Indians and Whites. Combining the Mbeki supporters with Whites, Indians and Coloureds, you end up with more people who have no faith whatsoever in Zuma and who think he must be prosecuted. The majority of South African wants Zuma prosecuted and jailed if he is guilty and released if he is innocent.
And, what happened to the Freedom Charter’s: All Shall be Equal Before the Law!?
Are we now going to have laws for members of the ANC NEC and laws for the rest of the citizens?
Zuma must show his much hyped leadership skills and explain to his supporters that he needs to go and explain him self in court. And he must tell them that if found guilty he will go to jail because all guilty persons must go to jail regardless of their status.
Lastly, people who resort to conspiracy theories, talk about majorities that do not exists, to advance their arguments are cranks. And Mr Trapido you are fast becoming one of them.
Michael, y not rather predict when Derby County will go a game w/out conceding a goal period and whether they’ll be able to string five passes w/out losing the ball b4 the end of this season!!! You’d probably come closer to the final eventuality than you will with ANC politics, just like Derby the ANC hotshots seem to have lost the plot of why they are where they are…simply to represent the ppl and not one man over the other.
Everyone has their own views on how to handle the situation. The current situation is precisely one that played itself out in the Roman empire time and time again. A popular leader is accused of corruption. The state may succeed with prosecution, but at the cost of riots or even civil war, and this while the barbarian armies are taking more and more of Rome’s territories. All I can say is, that often Rome survived, but was considerably weaker, because of such factional conflicts and entire territories were lost while the Romans fought amongst themselves. A good example, is Tiberius Caesar Augustus who did not distance himself from a corrupt mob of people that had inflitrated Rome’s top structures. When this mob finally came to power after assassinating him, an unprecedented period of instability ensued where countless military dicators ruled Rome. Each either assassinated, corrupted or destroyed by smaller factions within Rome. In our current situation Zuma isn’t a mere politician, he is backed by a huge mob. That is why I feel South Africa is now entering the most dangerous period in its existence. Civil disorder that could cripple its future leadership and Democracy forever as various factions try to gain power.
I think it was Mad Bob Mugabe who sneered at the Bush-Gore election as an example of weak democracy. I submit that it holds an interesting precedent for SA.
In an election where the candidates presented very little difference (albeit subsequently they proved to be of very different character) the resultant cliff-hanger was decided through the legal process. Despite the inferior character emerging the winner, helped by some cronyism in the Florida legal process, the constitution proved robust and all citizens accepted the result. Compare & contrast with Kenya, where constitutional rule is less robust. It now looks as if Bush’s Mbeki-sized hubris will lead to a Republican drubbing, but that’s what goes around coming around.
What happened at Polokwane was democracy in action. As a result of his Bush-sized hubris, Mbeki received the drubbing he deserved. An analysis of the ANC membership shows that the biggest gains were in the rural Eastern Cape (Zuma territory), in contrast to the declines or disarray in Mbeki strongholds (W Cape, Free State). Zuma and his team had done their homework; Mbeki and his cronyies had become out touch. In addition, Zuma was the only candidate to “take on” Mbeki (no-one outside HIS hubristic circle of toadies & cronies believes the vote was anything but an anti-Mbeki backlash), the other so-called leaders within the ANC preferring to cringe on the sidelines; even Sexwale lost courage at the last moment.
Since the ANC is a collective, the persona of the president assumes less importance when it functions. Zuma has indicated that, while his rule will in economic terms be more of the same (Washington consensus)and gone out of his way to reassure investors, he will be more responsive to crime, AIDS and poverty. While many thought that the ANC government would be like Harold Wilson’s soak-the-rich Labour we got a Tony Blair enrich-the-crony conservative regime that Maggie Thatcher would have been proud of (but not the neglected masses).
My worst case scenario: Hope raised by the ANC to be dashed by Mbeki the masses believe in JZ; when he fails to deliver (as he surely must: SA just does not have the wealth, skill or infrastructure to provide a better life for all) they turn to a real populist, a la Germany’s Hitler or Mad Bob (anyone notice that Winnie was #1 on the NEC list?)
My best case scenario:
The ANC allows the legal process in respect of Zuma to take its course. JZ, in a fit of pique, follows the “Samson option”, taking others with him and spills the beans. The whole truth about Armsgate is revealed, purging the ANC of its rotton core. Mbeki, Ginwala, and all the other coverers-up and covered up are exposed and removed from the corridors of power for good.
The Reserve Bank recovers billions from Swiss and other off-shore bank accounts which SARS goes after via the Asset Forfeiture Unit.
Despite whatever the incumbent at Union Buildings, whoever he or she may be, says or does the dollar continues to slide as the USA mortgage bubble corrects pushing gold up; China continues its trade liberisation destroying our over-regulated light manufacturing industry. The growth of India and the rest of the East reinforces this tendency. Because of political uncertainty the rand also slides, protecting jobs of SA workers; locally produced food and clothing will be less affected than imported toys for the rich.
You say in a more mature democracy such as Britain, America and Australia you would have no problem withdrawing the charges against those in power in the interests of expediency. And you are a lawyer? Hopefully I misunderstood you.
I feel it is vital the media maintains public awareness to prevent repetition of the misuse of public funds as occurred previously (see article published in the M&G.21 Dec. 07) The media is not merely an organ serving to encourage violence as you appear to think.
Why this suspicion of our country’s ability to handle difficulties. I hope greater confidence in the people of our country’s ability to handle difficulties rather than this overriding fear or expectation that things will fall apart. The greater concern may arise from global circumstances that may negatively affect our economy. This may well be difficult to predict. The sky may fall on our heads. But then, it might not.
As someone running a small business within a block of the high court in Maritzburg my feelings over the JZ court case are more than pragmatic, they are survivalist:!!
The first hearing of the fraud trail against Jacob Zuma ended 20th September 2006, when Judge Msimang struck the matter off the court role for lack of evidence/lack of preparation by the State
One could argue that this was merely due to the fact that JZ’s brilliantly resourced defence team had put up a myriad of filibusters to the gathering of evidence by the Scorpions - that had frustrated the prosecution and due course of justice.
To those trying to trade or practice in Maritzburg, reality was a daily rolling mass action of thousands of JZ supporters, bussed in from as far as Nkandla who toy toyi’d tirelessly in the streets . By the time of Judge Msimangs ruling the streets of Maritzburg resembled some sort of KFC mardi gras with ululating crowds, bands playing, streets blocked and business closed early for the week/month.
So August/September 2008 should be a blast!!. Maybe KZN tourism could justify alleged provincial funds spent on bus-in-rent-a-crowd by advertising a guerrilla theatre Rio style carnival that would bring in the radical chic Che Guvarra wannabe tourists in droves - fresh from South America “Reds R’us” packages
I personally could live without it. This could turn ugly and JZ will merely use the entire event as another Mshini Wam rabble rouser for his final glory in 2009. A guilty verdict does not bear thinking about.
Wake up Thabo Mbeki and smell the roses! - Drop the charges; accept defeat gracefully and peacefully. Bulelani Ngcuka told you years ago, that there is no realistic chance of prosecution, despite a prima facie case
Msholozi must face trial just as he faced the rape trial last year. One must remember that his financial advisor is serving 15 years for fraudulently and corruptly transfering monies appropriated from companies that were contracted to supply arms to S.A. Was the the transfer of such funds a politically-motivated act by Schabir to prevent JZ from becoming the President of the country? Or was he made(ie. Schabir Shaik) to lure JZ to accept the money in order to stymie his chances of becoming the CEO of the country? Evidence in Judge Hilary Squires’court points to two people(SS & JZ) in some symbiotic relationship regarding the exchange of money. How in the name of common sense does this translate to some conspiracy, when evidence presented in court is clear for everyone to see?
Remember, as well, that SS appealed to all the relevant courts of the land against his conviction and sentence and each time those courts upheld them.
Where is the politically-motivated conspiracy when someone accepts such monies through his own trusted financial adviser as the court records show? The rule of law is the cornerstone of democracy and cannot be diluted to serve the interests of individual
One is well aware of the unending allegations about other ANC bigwigs who are mired in this arms scandal and that JZ is not alone in facing these allegations. One is also well aware of allegations on how SCOPA was prevented from investigating the whole arms deal saga and was how it was substituted by agencies which appeared to whitewash the probe. One is again well aware of the seemingly untouchable Commissioner of Police to face serious charges that any ordinary would not escape from and of course protected by the very man who talks incessantly about our “National Democratic Revolution” which must be protected. I suppose in taking the auth of office the phrase(quote) that everyone is equal before the law but”some are more equal than others” is muttered rather rapidly.
One is inclined to believe that the arms deal,which was a subject of suspicision from the moment it was stitched-up, has led to this crisis and has also led to years of wrangling whilst ordinary South Africans are crying out for the much-needed public services like education, housing, health, crime-prevention etc. which are neglected. It only shows what kind of breed some politicians are. We thought the lot we have elected are men and women of substance, but alas it was not to be. Lastly, but not least, that South Africans mature rapidly that, come 2009, they will make informed political choices and dilute the romance with liberation struggle politics. African liberation history is littered with examples of liberation movements who when it comes to governance the wheels come off. I sincerely South Africa is not headed that way.
If decent folk don’t stand up and fight for a decent president then we will succumb to mob rule.
Dropping the charges is only advocated if one does not have the guts to fight for what is right.
Africa can never be better if we give in when the going gets tough.
Johnnie come lately - at the next trial show your mettle by erecting a large banner that no one can take down denouncing criminal behaviour. Get the decent folk of PMB to come out in support of anti crime measure. Hold a rally of your own. Your business depends on it.
South Africa is in big trouble if JZ gets his hands on the country. We will suffer from a huge brain drain, foreign investment drain, and increased corruption, and blatant theft from government coffers, as cronyism takes on a whole new meaning. We will also become even more of a banana republic, once the world learns that we have a morally bankrupt and inept president, who openly admits to ’sex’ with a person (who may not have consented) and having a shower to reduce his chances of catching AIDS. Oh dear! This on top of Shabir Shaik, the desperate attempts to block Mauritius releasing docs to the NPA, and a similairly desperate attempt to nullify scorpions search warrants. Not only is he out of touch with HIV, morally doubtful, suspciously crooked, but also publicly sings songs encouraging the machine gunning of fellow citizens of a different color, for historical reasons, no longer valid.
In light of all of this, I honestly don’t care whether he’s guilty of all, or some of the charges, as the only potential benefit, and boy is it a big benefit, is to keep this character from ever having to be addressed as our president. Whether Thabo is influencing the NPA or not, it seems that they have plenty of useful evidence at hand, which may prove what all right minded South Africans suspect: He is a crook, and therefore not fit to lead our country.
Politically motivated or not, the NPA offers South Africa the only possible escape route from the un-educated masses support, which will carry Zuma to the presidency otherwise. Personally, I don’t care how, why, or who stops this disaster, but be it Mbeki, NPA, or the voters (who may have a sudden desire not to follow Zimbabwe, where populist policy and rhetoric has destroyed the 2nd most undestroyable country on the continent) I will be the happiest man in the world if they can pull it off. The alternative is beyond imagination………….
I hope to see the day that South Africans vote for more than a catchy tune.
Musa you have sensible words indeed, but what irks me is the fact that cde Zuma himself does condones Zet Luzipho’s remarks, i mean what kind of callous proclamation is that? “Blood will be spilt”. As a leader who has been democratically elected, he should show us what he is made of!
And please tell me whose blood will be spilt, the judges?
Am I alone in wondering what to believe? I don’t know whether Jacob Zuma is a good honest man who has been set up, or if he is a crook. I passionately hope that the _justice_ system will supply me, and the country, with an answer that we can believe and work forward from.
I feel that this has to come to court, all the evidence be looked at and a verdict be reached. Jacob Zuma must be found guilty or innocent. If innocent, I think JZ will make a good president of the country.
I desparately hope that we avoid a legal procedural battle where the trial is prevented from taking place. That approach may be legal, but it does not feel to me like justice.
Should the trial not take place then Jacob Zuma must be considered not guilty. I suspect this may be the game plan of defence team; it seems to have been their approach to date. For me a not guilty outcome following no trial will not be enough.
Mr Zuma, show me you are innocent and you can have my support. Avoid justice and you will not.
Dave Campbell-Watts on January 4th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Ketwane I find it strange that you accuse Trapido of being a racist whilst present the following unfounded claims about Whites, Indians and Coloureds: “Zuma has no support among Coloureds, Indians and Whites.”
“…what irks me is the fact that cde Zuma himself does condones Zet Luzipho’s remarks, i mean what kind of callous proclamation is that? “Blood will be spilt”. Solethu
Solethu which newspaper quoted JZ condoning Luzipho’s remarks? I wish we could stop misleading each other!
I found it strange - if not downright fear inspiring that JZ has declared “no no I don’t want violence , it is the last thing I want”.
This coming from a guy who whips the masses into a frenzy of singing about a machine gun.
Either he has no understanding of mass physcology, and imagines that he can stir the masses up with a call to arms of that nature and then just switch them off as he pleases - indicating that he has already succumbed to the delusion that he is powerful as opposed to the people who have made him powerful OR
He actually does want the people stirred up into a frenzy. so that they will resort to violence to spare him from prosecution.
The French display an aptitude which is in many ways far ahead of our predominantly WASP mentality. They realise that no leader is perfect; that even the best must have a consensus that ignores their worst characteristics; e.g. JFK and even our dear Mandela who is also not God.
But not absolutely ignore. Democracy started in the village square where everyone had a say. It was never perfect but it was self correcting in that the harmful guilty could be publicly identified and scorned in short time. Democracy died when the square became too small for the number of people and oligarchy or vested interest took control by taking control of the word and dictating the time in the media
This page and others, together with the ripples they create in society, indicates that we have a real time virtual village square. Now we are taking back the word and leading the media.
I do not entirely agree with Traps. But what he says is feasible. Because of him I have it in mind together with the comments above.
And I say “Yes! Great stuff fellows! The field of play is open. Look! We can see that Zuma’s team has wrestled the initiative away from Mbeki. Watch them run! I think Zuma is too fat but his team is certainly energetic. It is up to them. Can they carry his wobbly mass?”
Some people are painting Zuma ‘bad’!Mbeki was feared as well!But Zuma is more ’softer’ than Mbeki! Mbeki had a ‘Biko’ view on things.I even expect that some of the Town names will be saved! There might be a discussion positively.Give Zuma a chance!!
[…] this year. It has not taken South Africa’s political analysts long to begin imagining the worst case scenarios should the popular ANC leader be found guilty. Taken alongside the violent protests against […]
Africa has been destroyed by people they call ‘intelligencia or intellectualls or the educated elite’ who all ‘cant see the trees from the bush’.I think we need to really hit the nail on the head.It is very clear that South Africa has been doing well since freedom in 1994.However , there is one man that is bent on destroying all that and than man is Thabo Mbeki.And sadly everyone is cheering him on like a spoilt child.I can assure you that Jacob Zuma no matter how bad or good the guy is but there is Thabo Mbeki that is willing to sacrifice everything , including South Africa , to stop Zuma from ruling South Africa.Polokwane was a case in point ; whereby all and sundry could see that Thabo Mbeki was not wanted in the party but went all out to try and win the presidency.
As sure as the sun will rise tomorow , Jacob Zuma’s supporters will leave no stone unturned in trying to stop Thabo Mbeki from victimising Zuma.South Africa can easily be sent into a state of ungovernance by the instability created by Thabo Mbeki’s vendetta against Zuma.Truely if you let Jackie Selebi to walk freely then you want to charge Zuma!Jacob Zuma has been investigated since 1999 or 2000 and you only want to send him to a trial in 2008!Truely!If anyone thinks that is justice you might as well think apartheid was just!
But if you care about stability and democracy please stop Thabo Mbeki from doing what he is doing because I am certain there will be blood on the floor.
Ndabenhle, you make valid points about whether this is justice, however the threats of violence seem to come more from the Zuma camp than the Mbeki one. Also, as you said, the priority should be the continued growth and success of South Africa.
Violence, and intimidation from the Zuma rabble, don’t bode well for our fledgling democracy. I’m more comfortable with Mbeki style leadership, which doesn’t pander to the toy toying masses nessecerily, but promises a long term strategy for our nations competitiveness, and therefore survival.
Nobody gains from another Zimbabwe………Bob was also a man of the people, and very charismatic, before he went mad and left his people dreaming of the ‘good old days’ before liberation. It didn’t have to be that way…..
Dear Rohan
I am grateful for your comments regarding my last post.I am also grateful that you have brought in Bob Mugabe into the discusion.Lets now open our minds.
In April 1980 when Bob Mugabe became the then Prime Minister of Zimbabwe he sought to silence for good the opposition in the form of ZAPU.He even went to the extent of killing 50 000 Ndebele/Zulu people who were seen as the main supporters of Zapu.These killings went on from 1981 to 1987 when Joshua Nkomo the ZAPU agreed to a biased towards ZANU-PF unity accord.Why I say biased is because to even at the present moment Ndebele/Zulus have no access to national opportunities because Shona people must have it all.
During all this madness the world watched and never condemned Mugabe.The argument has always been that he is British educated and speaks English very well.Over the years he has never allowed anyone to rise and position themselves to be heir to the throne.He has always said there is no one ready.
I have had a run in with key opinion makers in South Africa in the form of MG and Sunday Times.I truely cant believe that these two newspapers are willing to commit suicide by making it their business to stop Zuma from becoming the next South African president.To me it is back to apartheid!
We must all remember that in South Africa the president has no constituency.What I mean is that there is no national election for the office of the president in South Africa.Therefore Thabo Mbeki has been seconded to state presidency by ANC.However , at the moment he has no mandate from ANC to lead the party.That means his party does not want him any more.But why he stills wants to hold on to power , supported by so called sophisticates , it baffles me.
I love South Africa to bits but if my people cant learn from Zimbabwe and more recently Kenya I am so disappointed.If one cant see similarities between Bob Mugabe and Thabo Mbeki leadership styles , then we have a huge problem.I still insist that if Thabo Mbeki is cheered on doing what he is doing South Africa will either go the Kenyan way or the Zimbabwean way.ANC has never run short of leaders.They have also had good and bad leaders.Truely those that are ‘throwing bones and saying Zuma will become a bad president for the country should have thrown bones and foreseen that people do not want Thabo Mbeki anymore.
Hi Ndabenhle,
Thankfully we are in agreement about desiring success for our country. I am very worried though about the similarities in support base, between mad Bob and JZ. Both these leaders draw their support from the rural, and lesser educated masses. People with no or little access to the web, newspapers, and world affairs are a much more mouldable crowd, as they are less swayed by numbers and facts, but rather by emotion and loyalty. A few catchy phrases about ‘giving the land back to the people’ by Bob, and a few years later, he actually had to do it. He was left with a tough descision to make: Either appease the support base, by giving them land, or anger them by not following through on his threats to white farmers. These options, don’t leave much room to move, once somebody is drunk with power, and unwilling to give it up.
Similairly JZ will find himself owing debts to people whom he has promised much to. Whether he can repay these debts, and give more to the poor immediatly, is to be seen. He may find himself in a similar position to Bob after a few years, where he has to make a symbolic stand against South Africa’s wealthy in some form.
In essence, I can understand that it is unfair for some to wait, whilst others get weathier immediatly, but unless there are some wealthy people, and a decent middle class, the poor have no direction to head in. In South Africa, a child in a township can see first hand on a daily basis, what one can achieve within South Africa. If JZ damages the current growth rate, and increases unemployment by scaring investors with his machine gun songs, then the result will be even more youths with no future to aim at, and the increased disenchantment of people, who turn to crime to survive. Couple this with an increased brain drain (white and black) of skilled South Africans who need to leave to fulfil their potential overseas, due to lack of growth here, and you can begin to imagine the kind of future that a politician such as JZ offers.
Mbeki is no saint, however doesn’t see SA as limited to African standard influence and growth. We need global thinkers, and long term strategies to become a super power. Being content because we are in a better position than any other African nation, is not enough. It is not acceptable to share the wealth artificially, so we all have a low middle class income. We should be emulating the Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan, who 30 years ago, were also in dire straits, and today can support their populations comfortably.
Dear Rohan
Thank you for the discourse.However , all you mention are predictions about Jacob Zuma, negative ones for that matter.
I grew up in the struggle and ANC has had good leaders and bad leaders.All of us in the ANC would have loved to John Langalibalele Dube as ANC President for life or Chief Albert Luthuli forever.But life had to go on, as leadership is a button that is passed from one person to the next.For all you know you might be a good leader in times of plenty and become a bad leader in times of scarcity.
During the struggle I spent a lot of years in Zim although I was a toddler.I can assure you that Bob Mugabe has never been a darling of the crowds or masses, neither did he win an election within his own party to lead it.Picture this Thabo Mbeki has never won an election against anyone but has always walked through unopposed.Then comes the first time he contests an election , he loses dismally!
I must hasten to add that I like Thabo Mbeki a lot , he is my president and has done well,but time has come for him to move on.Someone new must take over.
You and I might argue that J Zuma must be president or not but members of ANC voted and have given us Zuma!By the way they are the ones that gave us Thabo Mbeki.Thats democracy that we fought for bitterly against apartheid.
I was miffed when I read a comment by Habib when he was making remarks about the composition of the NEC.He lamented the lack of Thabo Mbeki’s people.A well led ANC can never have Thabo Mbeki’s people or Jacob Zuma’s people but ANC cadres.
I grew up within ANC and I know in my bones that South Africa and ANC are safe under J.Zuma.When Mandela took over in 1994 sceptics panicked that the country will go to the dogs , but it didnt!When Thabo Mbeki took over more sceptics said without Madiba we will not get anywhere , but here we are!Now Jacb Zuma has taken over and the same sceptics are focusing doom and gloom.I wish them luck but ask myself when are they going to wish South Africa luck with a new leader.
Like the proverbial African saying that when the moon starts rising dogs bark at the moon but it does stop rising!ANC have voted for change in leadership , new leadership it will be!
Thank you too Ndabenhle! I agree that leaders have to change, and that it is a progression, however still find myself concerned about the type of leader we find ourselves facing.
It seems that the people in a good position, skill wise, to lead an emerging nation towards success and growth, lack support becuse they are seen to be too close to business, and too far removed from the ‘people’. I am talking of Cyril Ramaphosa, and Tokyo Sexwale mainly. Either of these guys is well equipped to continue South Africa’s journey, at an equally impressive rate of growth as Mr Mandela started, and Mr Mbeki continued. I find myself wondering whether the JZ’s of this world, grasp the idea that South Africa can only help itself, and help it’s own people, by continuing growth unabated?
I fear that the reality is that JZ is rather looking at what’s in it for him. Also, not suggesting that Mbeki and co haven’t plundered state coffers, but am sure that JZ will make no attempt to reign this in, and may even make it worse, as his cronies are immune from critisism………if you critisize a black leader, it means you are racist and want to go back to apartheid. If you are black, and critisize a black leader, then you are a sell out to those racists.
You are right, in that there’s no way to stop the tide (unless the NPA can make these charges stick, and JZ is found guilty, in time). I really hope I am wrong about him, and that you are right, but fear that I am spot on correct…..
Dear Rohan
Thank you for this very interesting conversation.I feel strongly that this is the sort of conversation that must go on in every household in South Africa.
I must state at the outset that I believe ANC together with a lot of other liberation movements fought for freedom of the people of South Africa , be they black , white , coloured or Indian.In other words all progressive forces came together to fight apartheid and against white domination.
Therefore 1994 was not only the liberation of black people but the end to white domination and by no means black domination.
All hues are now therefore bona fide citizens of South Africa with equal rights to all opportunities.Everyone must feel free to have a say in leadership matters of this country without fear of being labeled a pan Africanist or a racist.Thus South Africans of all colours must feel free to elect anyone of any colour to lead South Africa.If Trevor Manuel can lead South Africa to a better future , vote him in never mind that he is coloured.I am very clear that thoughts that a white must never be president of South Africa are nonsense.
Rohan if you read South African history , especially during apartheid , you will find that business has always had a say in how the country is governed.There is no modern country leadership that does not understand that business interests must be taken seriously.Present day South Africa can not be an exception, and I am certain Jacob Zuma clearly understands that , as a result he embarked on a trip to calm fears that he will ignore business interests once he takes over.
Rohan I am a business man but I understand the role national leadership must play in all facets of national life.
Thabo’s leadership weakness was failure to provide to his own party that gave him the mandate to rule South Africa.His other weakness was his lack of respect for ANC alliance partners.I dont know about Communism(I have a poor grasp of communism as an ideology cause I am capitalist) but surely as a leader you should listen to labour.I will give you an example of USA and Europe , the developed world , there there are regulation regarding minimum wages , working conditions , earning disparities within companies and corporates are heavily regulated.This is how South Africa and the rest of Africa must go.
Therefore nomatter how must one aspect of life of your citizens is doing well your other constituencies will push you.Rohan , you and I must be embarased that our government has a budget surplus year in year out but there grinding poverty that everyone can see, the shacks and all.In my mind Thabo Mbeki’s government havent got the capacity to deliver.There are very sharp people in Thabo Mbeki’s cabinet like Lindiwe Sisulu , Trevor Manuel , Geraldin Fraser ,Alec Erwin but there are hopeless ones like Briget Mabandla , of course Manto Shabalala-Msimang, and Ronnie Casrils, Manisi Mpahlwa.
If you cant judge a leader by people that he appoints and defends their poor performance then I dont know how you can judge leadership performance.
In leadership we say a good leader is one who finishes strong and I am afraid that Thabo Mbeki will not finish strong.He will be remembered as the most vindictive South African president , he will make Botha , Voerster and Malan look like saints.
Ndabenhle Mabhena on January 11th, 2008 at 9:49 am
The insight in these comments has been incredible. Ndabenhle, Arthur Chaskalson was succint
“Putting pressure on the courts by making serious allegations of partiality, uttering threats of massive demonstrations and expressing opinions in intemperate language are harmful to the judicial process, to our constitutional democracy and to our country’s reputation,”
This pressure is emanating from the Zuma camp.
A leader would call for such to cease.
Dear Robert
Thank you for your comment.I have great respect for both George Bizos and Arthur Chaskalson both as leaders and individuals that have fought for justice for all especially against apartheid.However , I feel they have come onto this issue too cold.The whole Zuma issue is not purely legal but political;like what Mathews Phosa said’if you dont believe Zuma’s charges are political , then you are living in your own world.
You must know that I respect the law of any land as it protects people’s justice and freedoms.However , it has been said that the law is an ass, it means that it has loopholes and therefore can be abused.I think in this instance it has been abused.How do you explain a guy that is investigating Jackie Selebi , the police commisioner be arrested.
Scorpions unit is a very noble idea , but the unit must justify its existence that it must not be used as a political tool by anyone including the executive.For example , the unit must find good reasons to prosecute and must now write to the Justice Minister who has the right to say go ahead or dont.What that means is that she can protect people for different reasons; and obviously she will consult the president who in turn can protect his people.The influence of the executives,which are politicians by the way, is why in a lot of countries there are no such units as Scorpions and if they do exist they fall under the Police service.
If Jacob Zuma was charged in a just way I will be the first one to say he should go under.He is not a God.In my eyes you have the executive , who seek to block Zuma working tirelessly with the press in tarnishing his image.How do you explain the front page story with Zuma’s financials!Can you imagine if all politicians , including Nelson Mandela, financials were put in public!I grew up in the struggle and all politicians had their finances looked after by all sorts of volunteers.Maybe you may not understand how these politicians survived during the struggle and imediately after 1994 as they had no substancial incomes.
I think as South Africans we should realise that apartheid is over and we must live in the present and it is our responsibility to build the new South Africa that we want.I must say that the way Zuma was treated it reminded all of us about the apartheid days when people that challenged for power were denigrated one or the other.
And to make matters worse anti Zuma people keep refering to Zuma and Mbeki camp within ANC.The ANC is now led by Zuma, finish and klaar!
Ndabenhle Mabhena on January 14th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Zuma has legal charges to answer, whether or not the case against him is politically inspired.
Mbeki may find one day there are legal charges for him to answer, if he has arguably broken the law and the state - now controlled by his opponents - decides to pursue him through the courts.
At all events both politicians will want to know the judiciary is independent when the time comes.
Those who cannot see this point will not see that the real problem has never been legal but political.
The solution can only be a split in the ANC that leads to a credible party of opposition.
Comrades will then be liberated at last to oppose each other, and what are called ‘the rest of us’ to support our personal choice.
[…] later this year. It has not taken South Africa’s political analysts long to begin imagining the worst case scenarios should the popular ANC leader be found guilty. Taken alongside the violent protests against […]
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By trade a criminal attorney he is now a politcal commentator and journalist full time.
"Traps Report" on the Richmark Sentinel is probably the largest news aggregator in the world. That includes Google, Huffington Post and Drudge.
If you click on the links of the Traps Report you should be up to date on all the latest news worldwide as well as local.
He is a director of the firm Turnbull and Associates.
He was born in Johannesburg and attended HA Jack and Highlands North High Schools. He married Robyn in 1984 (Mrs Traps, aka "the government") and has three sons (who all look suspiciously like her ex-boss).
He was a counsellor on the JCCI for a year around 1992.
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Michael -
The problem, as always, comes of starting from the premise that SA is a ‘democracy’. Once it is seen and accepted that SA is a monocracy - ie ruled by one party - at least the endless intellectual confusion and perhaps even some of the agonising can go away.
One of the many distinguishing features of monocracy is that it cannot, beyond a certain point, solve the problem of dissent, because it can never constitute its own opposition.
This is why monocracy degrades in so many instances into authoritarianism or outright autocracy, rather than changing towards a more open society. The examples current and past around the world are far too obvious to require repeating here.
Notice the word ‘changing’, as opposed to ‘progressing’. There is no need to assume that ‘progress’ is inevitable in human affairs, especially in the short term, which is why Fukuyama’s thesis was seen as naive. There is no escalator that moves automatically to ‘democracy’ and no country is or ever was on one. ‘Democratic’ gains can be and are frequently reversed.
Much of what happens next depends on the vision and quality of SA leadership, but as we all know vision often goes out of the window and quality is in short supply when power beckons. Mbeki could have avoided this crisis by the simple process of being a real (or proto-) democrat instead of a monocrat - have you considered that? He could have announced that he was not running again for the presidency of tha ANC.
It may not have been in the situation; it certainly was not in the man.
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