Quiet diplomacy was seen as a failure, but it also was a venomous snakebite that left Zanu-PF splattered into pieces, divided and with nowhere to hide.
If President Thabo Mbeki forced Uncle Bob to adopt radical changes in reforming the electoral system, the vampire regime would have told Mbeki to go to hell and accused him of being part of the Western agenda to oust the Zanu-PF-led government.
Mbeki presented a dossier/report to SADC leaders on his diplomacy in trying to break the political impasse that existed and still exists in Zimbabwe. SADC leaders hailed his diplomacy as a success. Many critics said that Mbeki was saving his face by presenting a report without breaking the Zimbabwean political stand-off. But the question to ask is: What was meant by the success of quiet diplomacy?
The success of quiet diplomacy can be pinned on two points.
Firstly, Mbeki convinced Zanu-PF leadership to relax some of its ferocious and barbed laws that would have made it difficult for Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC to campaign freely. If the laws were not relaxed, it would have meant that the MDC had to apply to the police to hold its rallies. Sometimes holding rallies would not be authorised for minor or fake reasons. But barbed laws were removed and the MDC was able to campaign within the change-hungry Zimbabwean electorate.
Secondly, Mbeki managed to convince the adverse Uncle Bob to make sure that a sense of peacefulness would render the elections free and fair; thereby bringing a sense of genuineness to the electoral process. Thus the vigilante group of Zimbabwe and Mugabe’s youth militias and war veterans was restrained from behaving like intoxicated morons during the presence of SADC observers. If the vigilantes were to misbehave, then the peacefulness of the elections would be questioned, thereby rendering the elections not free and fair. But there was no violence; it gave opposition parties space to campaign for change.
Uncle Bob blinked to Thabo’s suggestions held under the aegis of quiet diplomacy. It was a known fact that Tsvangirai’s MDC had mass appeal, looking at the economic hardships faced by the people of Zimbabwe. By opening the campaigning space as per Mbeki’s prescription, Zanu-PF had thrown itself into the mouth of an anaconda because it never survived the onslaught from Tsvangirai’s MDC.
Mbeki was clever enough to see to it that the campaigning space be opened enough for both parties to campaign freely, so that the unheard MDC message would echo within all of Zimboland. For sure, Tsvangirai got away with the trophy. The MDC has the majority in the House of Assembly, meaning that it controls the House. The Zanu-PF government has suspended the announcement of presidential election results, leaving people to guess that Uncle Bob was trounced by Morgan.
So who outwitted the other: Mbeki or Mugabe? Critics used to say that Mbeki was wasting his time in his quiet diplomacy because Mugabe would never listen to him. But, as it stands, it would be better to assume that Mbeki is the man of the moment. Even the Tsvangirai MDC has agreed that the South African president must be given credit for a job well done in opening the political space within the Zimboland (Sunday Times, April 6).
Since Mugabe agreed that he would accept any outcome of the elections, why is he deploying the Machiavellian tactics of trying to return to power by all means? The SADC, AU and international community should rescue Zimboland from Zanu-PF’s vampire operation, whereby the party is willing to shed blood in order to remain in power.
Thank you, President Mbeki, for your tactical and outwitting persuasiveness. Zimbabweans must be thankful to you.
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35 Responses to “Mbeki outwitted Mugabe”
I think the gratitude to Mbeki is a bit premature. Anything can still happen. Personally I think Mbeki can only be praised if he can say with certainty what will happen next, otherwise it means that it is not his plan, things are just happening by themselves. I think things are happening because Mugabe undermined MDC because of its split. Even his proxy Makoni did not perform well.
Are you serious? There is no excuse for having a spineless president. And making excuses for him just makes him look worse. He showed just as much “tact” and “quiet diplomacy” when he refused to comment on the preposterous utterings of “Doctor” Manto Tshabalala-Msimang. Beetroot indeed.
Very interesting indeed, Takwana, and certainly not implausible at a shallow first glance. I will be fascinated to read the opinions of more informed analysts than myself.
Some years ago the M&G published an angry letter I wrote after the murder of the father of a close friend of mine on a farm in Zimbabwe, in which I rudely condemned Mbeki for his ‘passive’ stance on Zimbabwe. That judgment was formed in the heat of emotional suffering, but perhaps it was premature…
I do understand the psychology of reverse psychology. I lost mr Mbeki in his action or non action. The current Zim happenings look like Mbeki has lost it, whatever. Where from here?
Well said Makaya, the quit diplomacy may hav fail at times but it has worked, becoz we were not going to impose our way into Zimbabwe but we open way so that they can dicide & indeed they hav buy voting out Mugabe. i too Thank Thabo M Mbeki.
Only when there is a decisive outcome can we congratulate anyone.
In the meantime we watch another African Catastrophe unfold… unless of course what you say manifests into a mutually beneficial solution…
A well written article, and to some extent, you are probably right, i think we are seeing some of the fruit of mbeki’s labour.
You can cut a tree down with a chainsaw or an axe. Just because the axe works it doesn’t mean it wouldn’t have been much better to use the chainsaw.
Mbeki, the AU and the SADC are a disgrace. Zimbabwe is in absolute ruins, and will take years or decades to rebuild, if it can ever be achieved. Mbeki will quite rightly be remebered for having ‘fiddled while Rome burnt’.
Uncle Bob does not care about silent diplomacy.
As a matter of fact he cares only about one thing
and that is to stay in power as long as he can,
come hell or high water.
His latest stunt to use war veterans to expel
white farmers shows that he is not going down
without a last show of force.
His reluctance to accept defeat is reminiscent
of Hitler who also in the face of looming defeat refused to surrender.
“Cool down,” I heard this evening that the “War Veterans,” invading farms and evicting farmers, not only are victimising “White” land ownwrs, but also anyone suspected of having voted for “Mad Bob’s,” opposition, including “Black” farm owners.
The outcome was predictable; typical of the African political mind set; viz. “Stuff you _ I’m alright, Jack.” Mugabe has the military advantage and he will use it. Meanwhile, like the proverbial rat, desert the sinking ship to let all the old crew drown.
Roland Osborne.
P.S. The rest of the world’s population, including the majority of which who do not know Africa exists, let alone Zim, does not give a tinker’s curse about Mugabe, Zimbabwe, et al. So what’s all the fuss? “Let them eat cake,” the Zimbo’s that is.
Dear Family and Friends,
Well never thought I would have to do this email, do not know if it may be my last from Chidza Farm, Masvingo, Zimbabwe! At 3.30pm today (Saturday), a lorry load of warvets arrived at our gate to take over our land, equipment and cattle.
It is now 6pm and they have been singing their war songs at our gate and more and more of them have arrived.
We managed to get Alison (our daughter) and baby John to town and for now it is just
John and myself and our dogs in the house, now on the farm. They have said that our labour will not work tomorrow and that they want us to kill them a sheep, which John refuses to do, so no doubt they will kill one for themselves.
Graham Richards was under siege at the same time as us, so it has to be orchestrated. The Goddards and Deidricks are in the same boat. They have
already taken over PaNyanda Lodge, Graham and Callie Richards are in town.
Alison is at Lorna’s in town and Carl is expected back from Bulawayo tonight!
an d will go to Lorna.
Please pass this email on to as many folk as you would like to. If you know of anyone in the Media all the better. We have to let the world know what is happening.
Well done to Zesa (the state electricity company). As they load shedded us
and I phoned my friend in the Zesa
Faults and he phoned Harare and they have switched us back on.
So for now please keep all of us in your prayers and we will send a follow up tomorrow if we are able.
Our love to you all.
John and Joy Borland from Chidza Farm.
An email from a friend on April 8th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Yeah tell all this to those who have lost loved ones in the last 8 years. I think for them quiet diplomacy has been a total failure. Mbeki has the time and inclination to play machiavelian tactics but innocent children are dying everyday. It looks to me (and most of the world) like he has simply washed his hands of them!
…..outwit?? By the look of things, Mugabe has “outsmarted” Mbeki. Even the MDC calls on Zuma for support. Have not seen TM’s weekly letter either. Very quiet diplomacy indeed.
This is an unusual spin on things. There I was thinking that Mugabe was being helped along by the ANC government with Thabo and Azziz spearheading the silence and keeping the lid on the massive human rights in Zimbabwe. I must have been mislead by reports of South Africa, on a number of occasions, lobbying for “no debate” motions at the UN on the human rights abuses in Zimbabwe. Then of course there was all this progress in Zimbabwe talks from 2000 to date as painted by Mbeki or Aziz when Mbeki was too embarrassed to face the media. And of course, the success of quiet diplomacy gives lie to all the statistsics suggesting economic implosion. Lies,lies, damned lies screached mugabe and all along, 150,000% inflation hasn’t happened, lifespan for a woman hasn’t dropped to 34 years, starvation isn’t a reality, 65% of Zimbabwe’s wildlife has not been slaughtered since 2000, niether has 85% of Zimbabwe’s Stud stock or dairy herds been destroyed, and the bumper harvests advertised today as the mother of all harvests on Zimbabwe broadcasting are true. Quiet diplomacy has been great for Zimbabwe and even today I read that South Africa is telling the UN not to bother coming to Zimbabwe because everything is under control.
In your dreams Takwana, in your dreams !
As you wrote your praise for Mbeki’s fantacy, thousands of militia are being deployed throughout Zimbabwe and are under the command of the military. There is a coup in progress and it is under Mbeki’s quiet diplomacy that Mugabe can hide another launch of more of his atrocities. The bashing has begun and it has been increasing on a daily basis.
As far as the people of Zimbabwe are concerned, with friends like Mbeki, who needs enemies?
At the end of the day, Zimbabweans are the true arbiter in the problems they face. No-one, Mbeki included, can solve the problems of Zim for Zimbabweans; we tend to ask for or expect too much from others sometimes.Collectively we will solve our own problems in our own way.
If this was a monument to delusion, it was a big one.
There was lots of ‘quiet’ and no ‘diplomacy’, and the net result is that Zimbabwe, and the entire sub region is in trouble - bad trouble.
I’m sure those (literally) poor souls forking out for the 1 million dollar banana, are immensely grateful for Mbeki’s help.
That one man can ravage a country so completely, while another - who has the power to do something something - watches, and yet another another praises him for his brilliance, is beyond satire.
If indeed this is the case, saying Thabo outwitted Bob is hardly saying much, is it?
The truth is the South African government is a cowardly shower who are not prepared to make the same brave stand against despotism that many countries and individuals made on behalf of the liberation movements when the Nat regieme still afflicted us.
Somebody better get the UN security forces to Zimbabwe soon because it looks to me like the people had voted Mugabe out fair and square and he is now ruling illegally. There is going to be bloodshed either way it seems… And old Thabo just keeps denying, denying, denying everything that’s right infront of his eyes. Can he not see the rest of the world sniggering at him?
My! My!
There is a great deal of small minded hatred in the posts above.
I have no doubt that many who hate so blindly contributed towards Zimbabwe’s downfall for it is always true that it helps the greedy little mind to find somebody else to blame.
I suggest those so keen to blame must be made to fix it.
But then who would want to deal with these people?
An election has three phases: pre-poll, actual poll and post-election. In this regards we should refrain from giving Mbeki our full credit when there’s strategic procrastination on releasing the presidential outcome. (It appears the result will never be released). We should also not forget that Mbeki’s qualified progress was significantly abetted by the fact that Pretoria worked with Harare within the SADC multilateral framework. The upcoming SADC summit on Zimbabwe then becomes critical – even though it appears none of the SADC countries has the will and capacity to speak out against the revolutionary Uncle Bob.
I do agree, Bob was smartlt outwitted by Mbeki in this case. The whole nation and the international community know Bob was thrashed by Morgan. Bob doesnt want to admit the people of Zimbabwe spoke. He is taking the battle to Morgan personally. I hope the Zambian emergency SADC meeting comes up with something. Please can someone get an explanation from Mr Mwanawasa, why he allowed BOB’s fleet of bullet proof top of the range cars worth 3 million euros(about R30 million rands)to be shipped from Europe to Zambia, and then driven overnight to Zim on the night of Saturday 5th April9while Zimbabweans were anxiously waiting for election results). This is a true story which someone need to expose.
We don’t actually know what the people of Zimbabwe have voted for, and i don’t mean the ZEC haven’t released the numbers.
As usual Mugabe (clever b*stard that he is)has us arguing over when the figures are released but we seem to have already forgotten the 1000’s of voters registered on derelict land, the 3m extra ballot papers printed, that the armed forces voted a week before the public (and arrival of observers) and had to put the forces number on the back so that their commanders who know who they had voted for, that Tsvangerai couldn’t visit the voter because his helicopter and pilot were impounded etc etc.
If, even after this and so much more, he admits that roughly half of the people voted for Tsvangerai, just imagine how many actually did? You can bet your life that it was a hell of a lot more, not to mention God knows how many who didn’t dare to vote (and just look what is happening to those that voted MDC - read the article in the Sunday Times about the women dragged behind a bakkie on ropes for voting MDC.)
(Vonani - perhaps you should also read it, but no doubt they deserved it).
I think we can safely assume the majority in Zim want change, but as you righly say their are idiots who think Mugabe deserves another chance (Oh we’re back to you Vonani, my favourite imbecile)
Please re-read my post. I said “I DON’T MEAN THAT ZEC HAVEN’T RELEASED THE NUMBERS”
I am saying that the numbers they have released are hardly accurate given all the election fixing that went on before those numbers were released. How many of the ZANU PF votes are the extra papers printed, or come from the derelict land voters? The ZEC isn’t independent, it is run by ZANU PF.
I am sure, given your politics, you hate Mugabe, as do I, but you are falling into his trap by legitimising the numbers released by the ZEC. If they now say that 23 constituencies have been recounted and there has been a mistake, that ZANU PF actually have a parliamentary majority, are you going to believe the numbers then?
I think Gordon Brown said it best to Mbeki, “If there was silent diplomacy 20 years ago you would have been dead”……. Of course he would have been called a racist for pointing out the obvious
Amused reader
There were about 9000 polling stations.The MDC
kept count as results were released and they
are close to the figures released so far.
AS president he is not subject to any criminal or civil proceedings, he remains Head of Government
and the army.
The most powerful institution is the Senate.He who
controls the Senate controls the rest,can use
the Senate to make reduce rest to lame duck status,
‘improving’ legislation or blocking it.It is a
sort of an ‘old wise men club’.
There were four elections which ran simultaneousness,
Presidential,House of Assembly,Senate,Local Council.We are waiting for the Senate and Presidential and might as well while waiting
do some recount.
So Uncle Bob would say,keep your House of assembly,
as long as I am President and control the Senate,
remain Commander in Chief, Head of Government,
I’ll be fine.
No wonder Senate and Presidential results are,let’s say slightly delayed.
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I think the gratitude to Mbeki is a bit premature. Anything can still happen. Personally I think Mbeki can only be praised if he can say with certainty what will happen next, otherwise it means that it is not his plan, things are just happening by themselves. I think things are happening because Mugabe undermined MDC because of its split. Even his proxy Makoni did not perform well.
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