In June this year I wrote on my blog that Jacob Zuma was “fading fast” and that his presidential bid was “done for”. Now, less than a week before the Polokwane conference, it is perhaps appropriate to eat humble pie and admit that I was spectacularly wrong. Even if Thabo Mbeki manages to win — which seems almost impossible — it is clear that Zuma’s presidential bid has real traction with the rank and file of the ANC.
What follows is an extended version of my article that appeared in Business Day on Friday in which I really try to understand why I got it so wrong. Being a paid-up member of the chattering classes obviously has its drawbacks … Here goes:
A journalist phoned me the other morning to ask “just a few questions about some constitutional technicalities”. Driving to work past the shacks where phase two of the N2 Gateway Project was supposed to have “cleaned up” the area but where the inhabitants have so far resisted removal to far-off Delft, I clutched my fancy cellphone while the journalist fired away.
“When members of Parliament are convicted of a crime,” he said, “they lose their seat in the Parliament, hey? So, will Jacob Zuma lose his position as president if he is convicted of fraud and corruption after being elected president?”
My first reaction was that this was a clear sign that the chattering classes (of which I am, of course, a paid-up member) had woken up to the nightmare of a Jacob Zuma presidency. It took about one week, but there it was. After the initial glee and even delight expressed by many in private and in public about the heavy defeat of President Thabo Mbeki in the provincial nomination process, panic about a possible Zuma presidency is now setting in among many in the middle and upper classes of our country.
The subtext of almost all the conversations I have been part of, and perhaps also the subtext of the journalist’s question, is that it is “too ghastly to contemplate” (as Prime Minister John Vorster said of majority rule in South Africa) that an “uneducated” peasant with 20 children, several wives, at least one mistress and a coterie of aggrieved hangers-on could possibly take over from that other guy we do not really like either. Then there is that shower head growing out of his head that will make us the laughing stock of the world.
It is a bit like progressive Americans hearing that George Bush was killed in a plane crash and thinking: “Thank goodness we are rid of Bush,” only to realise after the initial euphoria has waned, “Oh my God, now we are stuck with Dick Cheney!”
So much has been said about Jacob Zuma’s various moral weaknesses (and I have contributed my fair share to point these out) that it is difficult to keep a level head on the matter. When I read that Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka reportedly said this past weekend that people should vote for someone who would rule the country correctly and that there were some who aspired to govern the country but had no “understanding and sophistication”, it is difficult not to conclude that this is also about snobbery and class prejudice.
Is this smug middle-class chauvinism that assumes that an “unsophisticated” person like Zuma cannot rule the country “correctly” not at least a bit shocking and embarrassing for us who are supposed to believe in the egalitarian society envisaged by our Constitution? Is it not perhaps the very reason for Zuma’s popularity with the ANC rank and file who, after all, may also not see themselves as “sophisticated” but rather as down-to-earth people without the airs and the self-righteous arrogance of a Mbeki or a Mlambo-Ngcuka?
This kind of superior attitude — which seems to underlie much of the antagonism against Zuma within some ANC circles — seems to me completely counter-productive. Such remarks just make the anti-Zuma lobby come across as know-it-all, arrogant snobs that look down on the ordinary people who vote for the ANC.
The problem is, of course, that the ANC has — with some laudable exceptions — refused to judge ANC cadres negatively unless a cadre had been convicted of a crime. The “innocent until proven guilty” mantra came to subvert and eventually delegitimise another kind of morality, a morality based on whether a person acted wisely and ethically, or at least whether a person had not acted completely selfishly, stupidly or morally reprehensibly.
By refusing to consistently judge ANC cadres for moral reprehensible behaviour unless they had been convicted by a court of law, the ethical bar was set so low that Zuma’s misdemeanours seemed rather tame. The highest court of the land may have confirmed that the deputy president of the ANC had taken more than a million rands from a convicted fraudster and then did some favours for that fraudster, but they were friends and in any case comrade JZ is “innocent until proven guilty” and therefore cannot be ethically judged. Why can police National Commissioner Jackie Selebi be friends with an alleged gangster, “finish and klaar”, and Zuma cannot be friends with a fraudster whose brother was in charge of the arms deal, nogal?
When Mbeki then fired Zuma as deputy president of the country even before he was charged with any crime and definitely long before there was even the remotest possibility of him being convicted, it seemed deeply unfair and, I would suggest, sent a signal that the “sophisticated” snobs were dealing with the “unsophisticated” Zuma, that man from the farm, because he was becoming too “uppity”. Thus Zuma’s presidential campaign was born.
All through this debacle those of us in the chattering classes cheered on the Zuma prosecution for whatever reason, and now we find ourselves with a terrible middle-class hangover.
In any event, I told the journalist that he had it slightly wrong. Section 47 of the Constitution states that members of the National Assembly cease to be eligible for membership of the Assembly only if they had been convicted of a crime and had been sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine. That is why the Travelgate MPs who made plea bargains that excluded a prison sentence are still in our legislature.
If Zuma is to become president, he will have to become a member of the National Assembly before he is convicted and sentenced for fraud and corruption (crimes which carry a 15-year mandatory prison sentence). Once elected by the majority of the members of the National Assembly, he will immediately stop being a member of the National Assembly and will cease being subject to section 47 of the Constitution.
Once elected as president, he would not automatically stop being president just because he was convicted and sentenced to more than a 12-month prison sentence. He could, of course, resign or the then pro-Zuma national executive committee (NEC) of the ANC could ask him to resign. Or the National Assembly could institute a vote of no confidence in him and his Cabinet, which would only happen in our electoral system if the MPs were so instructed by the then pro-Zuma NEC.
Finally, the president could be removed from office in terms of section 89 of the Constitution if two-thirds of the members of the National Assembly passed a resolution in this regard on the grounds of a serious violation of the Constitution or the law.
The fact that these issues are being discussed means those who cannot imagine a Zuma presidency are perhaps once again hoping that the National Prosecuting Authority and the courts would save us form the man from Nkandla. So far, all the best efforts of the NPA and its political bosses in this regard have failed, so I would not count on a conviction.
Maybe it is time to brush up on our class sensitivities instead.
Mr De Vos welcome to the real world of poor people’s politics. The unsophisticated voting majority who “ate the National Party cows and still voted ANC”, as Vavi put it today.
This time around, they will eat the Mbeki people’s sophisticated salads and vote Zuma.
There are things, my friend in Africa which remain sacred to a grown man. And when the gods delivered madness to Mbeki’s people to expel Zuma, they dug a grave at the bottom of the valley.
I am not disturbed by the sound of humble pie munching, instead I fear the gnashing of teeth, as the gods arrive to gather the bodies who have defiled the motherland.
President Jacob Zuma. Sounds good to me.
Ok, you are not talking about the black middle and upper class. Damn boy, do you still believe that we are against the president? You do know that the media made up that garbage, right? Yuo must be talking about the glee showed by white people. Don’t misinform the masses because the masses will remember.
Hmmmmm … and whites (his lawyers) have kept him out of jail as per the office gossip at his lawyer’s office goes.
If he becomes president the charges will never be put against him. His deputy position has saved him so far.
I guess Shabir can look to an early pardon.
What I notice from Azania2010, Liansky and Sandile’s post the other day that the masses expect a big change under Zuma. The masses expect northern hemipshere people to leave and wealth to be redistributed. Is the great rainbow coming to an end? Am I wrong in getting that impression?
Not all of us get it wrong, Pierre.
THE WITNESS
21 Nov 2007
Zuma for president
Graham McIntosh
I am not an African National Congress member so I can comment freely on the process of nominations and election for the presidency of the majority party. It is good to see the democratic way in which it is proceeding.
Apart from the damage done to our nation by Thabo Mbeki’s maverick Aids views and a nasty streak of racist herrenvolkism, he has done a good job, but 10 years is enough. For him to stay on as president of the ANC while Parliament elects somebody else as president of the Republic of South Africa, is a recipe for conflict.
Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale have maturity, struggle credentials and political experience and will have more balance because they have moved outside of the realm of elected party politics during the past five years. Either would be a fitting president. However, it seems that the only bulls in the kraal are Mbeki and Jacob Zuma. So we have to make a choice, unless one abstains, which would be a cop-out.
I would vote for Zuma. My assessment of Zuma is that he is not corrupt but was naïve and too trusting. The “struggle” earned Masinga, as he was known, some shaky friends, but Nelson Mandela also has had those kinds of friends even though, in an understandable effort to retain Mandela’s iconic status, the issue has been swept under the carpet. I think Zuma is wiser now.
What politicians, or anybody for that matter, do in the privacy of their bedrooms is none of my business. What was hugely impressive throughout that sordid rape trial, which was an ordeal for Zuma, and indeed for everybody involved as well as the nation, is the respect which he accorded the court process and the judge in his meticulous attendance and his dress. At his rallies he never railed against the system but submitted to its authority. He demonstrated the virtue of ukuhlonipha (respect, dignity, courtesy) under very trying circumstances. As a president, I believe he would respect the institutions and laws of our society.
As somebody who served on the Estcourt/Wembezi Peace Committee and saw the terrible reality of the inter-party violence, I am enormously grateful for Zuma’s work as peacemaker (umlamuli). I think he was the only serious leader of the ANC who could gain the confidence of the Inkatha Freedom Party. South Africa owes him an enormous debt, which is probably why Mandela asked him to take over for a time as the mediator in the Burundi conflict.
Zuma has not had a formal education, but he is intelligent, shrewd, courageous and is able to make decisions. He is not a great administrator, but that is not important in a president. Winston Churchill was not a good administrator either. Zuma will look for help and he will get it from the nation. When he was the Minister for Economic Affairs in KwaZulu-Natal, he welcomed the assistance of the business community in administering his office.
Zuma is a man with a real appreciation for the rich and diverse talents of the rainbow nation because he is secure in his own cultural background. One of our problems in South Africa is that there is a small minority of our people, including blacks, who are not at peace with themselves and their identity. He would appoint South Africans of real ability and only afterwards look at the colour of their skins. That has not been Mbeki’s approach. Zuma would be a real nation builder.
The struggle song Umshini wami should not be seen as a threat. Just as Bok van Blerk’s song De la Rey stirs white South Africans, but not into aggression, so does Umshini wami appeal to black people. Zuma is a liberated human being, he is not politically correct, has a great sense of humour and can even make “K” jokes. He is not ideologically driven and is no communist as Jeremy Cronin has observed with alarm, and as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange discovered last week.
Despite his faults and contradictions, which all of us have, Zuma is a man who fears God and acknowledges it. The fear of God is the beginning of wisdom. South Africa would be a much more relaxed country under a Zuma presidency.
• Graham McIntosh is a former Democratic Alliance member of Parliament.
I was wondering the other day on the possibility that if JZ become ANC President but still get prosecuted and convicted for fraud, thus not eligible for the SA presidency, who would he recommend as SA president? Also, if he is ANC president, will the NPA be “instructed” (early next year?) to stop investigating him? If not, what is the possibility that he, or his supporters, will request that the NPA also investigate Mbeki (or any of his supporters) for alleged fraud in the weapons deal / or any other large deal such as Oilgate or the recent Eskom deal? A behind-closed-doors deal whereby the prosecution of Zuma is stopped in exchange that prosecution of Mbeki (or his supporters) will not happen after 2009.
Overall, I have seen too few proper analysis of what Mbeki and/or Zuma will do after Polokwane for the next year or two. We still have at least 12 months, probably more like 18 months, of a Mbeki presidency, no matter what happens in Polokwane.
How easy it is to laugh at our northern neighbours and yet we face the same possibility. Thabo Mbeki or Jacob Zuma this country is on its path to destruction. One needs to just look at the current Mbeki cabinet and the possibility of Cde Vavi becoming the Minister of Labour to understand the crisis. Besides a few shining examples like Trevor Manuel the majority of Ministries are led by incompetent people. I’ll give examples;
Health: Under Manto our public hospitals are in a sorry state. I wouldn’t even want to get into the HIV/Aids issue.
Public Enterprises: One needs to jus remember the bolt & sabotage theory mentioned by Mr Erwin, SAA and the current ESKOM power crisis.
Education: The standard of matriculants is on the decline, drugs & alcohol abuse in schools, under-utilsation of resources. For example the Eastern Cape dept of Education underspent & returned R340m to treasury whilst kids learn under trees.
Local Gvt: Service delivery has reached a crisis hence the protests countrywide. Nepotism & corruption is rife in Municipalities & nothing is done about this. Why? Because ANC municipal managers are appointed with total disregard of merit. Tenders are awarded to ANC cronies who don’t have a clue about the construction business.
Water Affairs: Once one of the shining depts, under Sonjica this dept is in disarray. For example the sanitation crisis in Delmas & the bucket eradication programme. The Minister failed to advise the president that the programme depends on availability of water.
Safety & Security: criminals are in control with the help of our police commissioner. His friendship with a convicted criminal tells a lot about his lack of judgement. Zuma was fired when his corrupt friend Shabir was convicted, why not Selebi?
I can go on and on about the rot in the current government but again imagine Fikile Mbalula in cabinet. Scary hey!
Hey Pierre,
I guess maybe you came to realise what most ‘middle-class’ or ‘rich’ people in this country never ever realise- that we’re not the centre of the South African universe.
I’ve been telling my Sunninghill friend with a BMW to stop living in her cushy mental space coz she thinks the opinions of her high-paying law firm is everyone’s common sense.
It reminds me of a moment at university when she said to me, ever so confidently and ignorantly, that YFM and 5Fm had the largest listenerships in the country and were the most important radio stations…
HA HA HA… I laughed at her soon-to-be Black Diamond ass… and she still maintained her OPINION (she thought it was fact because after all, she loves YFM and 5!) which was not only uninformed but struck me as totally arrogant and naive….
So when I corrected her and said no… the Nguni language stations have the largest followings… she was like “no no no… nyeh nyeh nyeh… you haven’t heard Y blah blah blah”
I was like WHERE AM I… and she disagreed all because she came from wealthy Joburg, the centre of the world, and I didn’t…
Afterall, since she listens to Y, the whole world must too!
And I fear, she’s displaying the same patterns of thought on the whole Mbeki/Zuma saga…
sigh… so much for education….
oh dear…
I don’t think the masses are so naive as to expect dramatic changes under Zuma – they’ve already had over a decade of ANC rule and what has improved did so in the first few years already. I think they just want to be acknowledged and to get just a little bit of leverage and Jacob Zuma can possibly do that for us.
I am not suprised by your earlier analysis about Zuma(OF COURSE before you humble pie decision) because that is how SOME white middle clss and of course the so called black diamonds think about Zuma, the good think about you is that you acknowlege your mistake of underestimating the masses (illiterate and poor as they are ) and your self righteous and judgmental and prejudices should be lesson that masses will revolt against snobs and cum gender advocates like Phumzile who was given a position on a platter (thanks to her husband ) now she has the audacity to be authority on sophistication when the Mbeki regime wasnt when dealing with opponents abusing state resources
Can you imagine the country under Jz?
The legacy that Mandela left and some of us fought for will just go down the drain of History books.
With his corruption and fraud cases it just simply shows that to criminals Crime do pays.
I just feel sorry for us SAs if the country is led by JZ.
Lucky,
I once wrote in one blog “Many a false man in the name of the analyst have given us the most biased view of things ”
As long as you thought you were on the right path. There are not many who will eat this pie, bitter and ice cold as it may be. you are not the only one, but many are too proud to own up
As for the Deputy President I wonder what “understanding and sophistication” she’s talking about coz if she wasn’t an ANC activist and Mbeki’s lapdog she could be a teacher at some rural school in KZN.
have anyone thought of the possibility of JZ and his ex-wife being at the helm of the ANC as President and Deputy President respectively? scary thought isn’t it?
Tke likes of Vuyo talk of the Mbeki regime abusing state resources and power, it is funny how people forget that Jacob Zuma was part of that regime from 1999 to his dismissal in 2005. Indeed, he was second in command of that supposedly authoritarian regime! Some one is clearly being economical with the truth.
Facts are as follows:
Zuma has not been found guilt of corruption so he should contest the ANC presidency; innocent until proven guilt. By the way even if Jesus was found guilt by a judge, He was not guilt- it was a lie!
Crime needs a new strategy; person like Zuma who everyone is able to listen to and willing to enforce law equally; to foe and friend.
AIDS denial disqualifies Mbeki. SA has the largestAIDS prevalence the whole world please get that straight.
Land issue – unless we have lead who will be willing to deal with this issue now diplomacy may be too late. Zuma is able to speak anyone and listens.
The major problem with political analysts, media, etc, in South Africa, is that they judge every scenario on the basis of the popularity thereof. Granted, there may be egg on Pierre’s face but it does not discount the validity of his earlier analysis. Democracy is supreme and must be respected, but let us not assume a legitimate democratic outcome can be equated to a morally/ethically correct outcome. Hitler, George Bush Jnr, R Mugabe, are all products of popular outcomes.
What is fundamental, in deciding who must lead us, is that we look at the consistent conduct of each policy director, not merely popular utterings and outcomes.
Too many words spoil the content, so I will be brief. You are dead right. And oh, a reminder: I do not think Reagan was that sophisticated (according to theories of potry and economics a la Mbeki) but ruled the most powerful nation in the world. Its down to wisdom, stupid.
A lot of doomsday prophets have emerged from what is termed the succession debate. This contradicts the democratic approach that guided the process. When the majority voice their choices, they are labelled ‘naive’ and that they might have not gone to the level of scrutinising what the so called moral authorities describe as appropriate and idealistic for us. This is the same chorus of ‘civilisation’, that disregarded difference and choice.
JZ is the choice of the majority, not only the poor, uneducated and uncivilised. The leaders and members of the ANCYL, COSATU, SACP, ANCWL, MKMVA and the majority in the ANC spoke with a loud voice for change, and that collective change Zuma is the face. Lets respect the decisions of the majority, Thabo is accepted as president of the country and the ANC because of majority rule, let it apply consistently with Zuma.
All the hullabaloo around the charges is unsustainable. There is no charges on his head, for seven years and no convincing evidence, theres a rat somewhere. Let Zuma govern, let the people govern. elitism must collapse and participatory democracy must be a reality.1
I don’t fear Jacob Zuma. Although I feel he is ethically challenged and his decision-making faculties in need of a major service, and therefore ethically not a suitable candidate for the presidency, I have no doubt that he would be a good president (or, at least, not worse than Mbeki). I believe that Zuma would be a conciliatory figure, especially in race relations.
I don’t fear Zuma. It’s his sidekicks I fear. And I’m concerned about whether Zuma will be “naïve” again in allowing his coterie of hangers-on to cash in.
The saying that politicians thrive on the ignorance of the masses is really spot on: If we are experiencing a revolution in SA as one youth leader will say when misleading the ordinary masses. 1. why is Sexwale, a hard core capitalist accepted by Zuma? 2.What does a so called future head of state want from the Texas boys, a trip that was organised by shady American intelligence operatives.There are other examples that can be mentioned, people need to be analytical and read between the lines. I am not going to go through political education of South Africans. This has happened in other African states and they were caught napping.I thought S Africans where more sophisticated and cleverer. Perhaps let South Africans, particularly ANC members make their mistakes and learn from them. One day chickens will come home to roost and when they cry for the return of Mbeki he will be gone just like Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana. Ask the people of Ghana. Infact other Africans cannot believe what is happening in SA.
i’m very dissapointed by the comments made by the current deputy president of South Africa(Mlambo- Ngcuka). It seems to me the people who are uneducated are not expected to have a say in the affairs of this country.
This is extremely painful in the sense that, we are where we are because of these uneducated people who fought tooth and nail for us to get this sophisticatiOn she is talking about. Her comments are depressing and very unfortunate if one looks at the struggle of this country and the people who were involved.
REf to article : Talking on you cellphone while driving, surely thats not allowed….especially when it is a fancy cellphone. Surely, U should be fined!!!!!
South Africa faces a threat of being invaded by forces that were warded off with skill and vision by the Mbeki government hence his unpopularity in some quarters. The western world does not like Mbeki but there is one thing certain, they respect him.
My input does not seek to support him to become a president of South Africa again. However, a third term as ANC president could have been proper for these strategic reasons:
1. South Africa could have been assured of a female president coming into office in 2 009
2. The skill and deep understanding of foreign policy issues and how to play the strategic international chess game in order to maintain the right equilibrium in the balance of forces at a global level would be imparted to his would be successor such that the much needed legacy is kept intact.
If South Africans cannot realise these home truths I rest my case. Truth will survive the test of time, that I am confident of.
Being a little whitey I was initially terrified of Zuma and his machine gun. And then I started thinking that maybe all these accusations against him were possibly fabricated to bring him down. Now recently he made a plain statement about crime. That if the people wanted the death penalty back they must say so. I have new respect for JZ – it sounds like he is going to be pragmatic and put our real, everyday problems first. Not like Mbeki who denies crime is a problem and that its a media fabrication! I might even forgive him for his lack of sophistication regarding HIV/Aids prevention. Hope he’s on top of things there now though and has had an HIV test.
The question that most people overlooks is, who will be the main benefitiaries of Zuma’s victory? Besides Vavi, Blade, Fikile and Shake’s, I think parties like DA and ID will most likely enjoy the majority of votes come 2009 especially in Gauteng & Western Cape. Whoever wins in Polokwane, ANC will split and the loosing ‘camp’ wil either not vote or vote for another party.
It will be interesting if, as SJ points out, a JZ victory in Polokwane give the opposition parties a chance to increase their voter base in SA. I dont think opposition parties are strong enough to unseat the ANC in most provinces (maybe only the Western Cape) or nationally, but if, say, they decrease the ANC from a 70% to a 60% or below share in the national parliament, then that would strengthen democracy, will it not? We should remember, that the vote this week is only the vote of the ANC members, not the SA public, who will only vote in 2009. As ANC member, Mbeki will be obliged to campaign for the ANC in 2009, even if JZ is ANC president.
What a shocker it will be if, say, Mbeki and his allies dont get good positions in the ANC NEC, they decide to use the next walkover period to split from the ANC and start a new party or join another? That would be very, very interesting….
Oupoot, just imagine your competitor giving you free points of his winnings; in fact the ANC would be really happy to finish the useless opposition and they govern based on the peoples mandate. I think they would also welcome a strong opposition, that offers real challenges to them. The opposition must agree with the ANC on many basic truths, like the Democrats and the Republicans do.
What is this obsession with a woman President?
I think this woman President thing is really sexism in reverse. For that matter I think the most ideal President is one with both male and female organs.That would be a real peoples choice.
Yam, I am sure you do not want to hang us poor black criminals.
Jack Monde, I agree with you.
Mbeki should not have stood for the ANC presidency. He should have backed someone else since his economic and social policies while well thought out are about as clear to the common man as most of his speeches. But as for some of his political views it shows that the one aspect to Mbeki that is his undoing is his stubborness in sticking to a position.
JZ may represent an alternative to some but I believe he is a disaster waiting to happen because he reminds me of another likeable, poorly educated “peasant” with corrupt tendencies who went on to bring another promising African country to ruin. Arap Moi of Kenya. Like Moi he says exactly what people want to hear (whether its umshini wami to the SA blacks or pronouncements of the death sentence to the SA whites). Fact is JZ is not in it for anyone but for JZ himself and this is what SA will discover when he gets elected – as his buddies Shabir Shaik and his other backers already know all too well.
South Africans must give JacobZuma a chance,he helped liberate SA and he is a human being who can err just like his most vocal critics.A lot has been said about his lack of formal education but intelligence is about purposeful behaviour not just academia.Zuma will consult widely and avoid behaving as a know it all leader,most educated politicians and their people just learn by rote judging by the way they fail to deliver practically.
“Zuma will consult widely” but at the end of the day decide. Mbeki sure had his advisers but at the end of the day had to decide.
I am still uneasy about Mr Zuma’s reaction to Mr Shaik’s conviction on that fateful day. Does he think Mr Shaik is innocent.
Mr Mbeki has one thing about him consistency. He shielded Mr Zuma from the NPA leading to the “prima facie” explanation for taxpayers money “wasted” by Bulelani Ngcuka. He has shielded Jackie Selebi the same way but like Zuma not for ever.