The president of the Republic of South Africa is a joke, or so a Facebook group proclaims — almost shouting — “JACOB ZUMA is A JOKE (We are Disgusted and tired)” (sic). The group created after the revelations of the president’s love child with Irvin Khoza’s daughter, currently boasts in excess of 9 300 members (9 312 to be precise). Topics discussed on the board range from the suspension of the president, questions around a potential second term in office and the issue of women’s rights and representation.
However, it would be foolish to claim that (a) all 9 312 members share those sentiments (a cursory overview reveals this) and (b) it is a representative sample of the South African population (limited internet accessibility, via a PC or mobile phone, and self-selection bias negates this possibility).
Despite commentary and articles in newspapers countrywide giving the impression that even staunch ANC members are increasingly disillusioned and disappointed in the conduct of the president and the movement, there has been no credible survey data to suggest a general shift in public opinion.
Even though there might not be a tangible shift in public opinion, as yet, there are real indications within the political circles of the ANC and its alliance partners that the president is walking on thin ice.
Allister Sparks claimed that Zuma is “a lame duck a mere nine months into his presidency“, while internal to the movement reports have labelled increasing tensions as an “open rebellion” against the president. Unionists are increasingly dissatisfied, even lamented their support for the person of Zuma instead of pro-working class policies, and the president’s most trusted side-kick, Julius Malema, even turned against him.
Even the ANC itself is less optimistic in their support of the president and increasing dissatisfaction within the party has potentially damaged Zuma’s prospects of a second term.
Adding insult to injury recent revelations about Malema’s reported lavish lifestyle and rumoured kick-backs from tenders have lead to an equally vehement response on social networking sites, news articles and opinion pieces from supporters and opponents alike.
Interestingly enough most of the vehemence and expressions of disgust on social networking sites have come, not from the “racist white opposition”, but from the ANC’s traditional support base: black South Africans.
If there is indeed a significant shift in public opinion following these recent events, its impact on the political landscape does not necessarily bode well for opposition parties. Only time will tell whether such a shift will materialise and whether we will see a reversal in the trends of partisanship / non-partisanship in the voting age population (VAP). Dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the ANC has, as Collette Schulz-Herzenberg illustrates1, in the past not necessarily led to an increase in support for opposition parties.
While, in 2008, 48% of the VAP were declared ANC partisans, only 12% were declared opposition partisans. Additionally, 40% of the VAP did not vote in 2009, while only 20% voted for opposition parties and 39% for the ANC.
It is clear that even in 2009, even with the emergence of Cope, the imagination of 40% of the VAP was not captured by the alternatives available.
If opposition parties want to tap into these no-voters and potential partisans shed by the ANC, they will have to convincingly demonstrate and formulate effective strategies to position themselves as viable, credible and legitimate alternatives to the ANC.
As Rapelang Ramosa wrote on the “Zuma is a joke” group: “Everything rises and falls on leadership” (John C Maxwell), and “an organisation cannot rise above the level of those who lead it — if that is indeed true, what about a nation?”
If we are to consider the president a joke, then the joke is on all of us.
1 Schulz-Herzenburg, C. 2009. “Trends in Party Support and Voting Behaviour, 1994 – 2009″, in R. Southall and J. Daniel, 2009. Zunami! The 2009 South African Elections.
What a piece of trash. We have gone passed this and attempts to discredit JZ using mass media failed dismally and will always fail.
Lehlohonolo, what Marius is trying to say is that there’s no NEED to attempt to discredit JZ using the mass media. He does a fine job himself. The mass media just reports the end results. And if you can’t see that, the joke is definitely on YOU…
Lehlohonolo – JZ does not need media to discredit him…he is doing a fine job of it all by himself!
Also worth noting is that nearly 20 million (40%) of Saffricans are too young to vote. I think Mandela was making a profound point when he proposed lowering the voting age to 14: perhaps he was indicating that people vote for themselves (their past, their current loyalties), and not for their childrens futures.
Even Kieno Kammies could not give his vote to an opposition party (despite being spoilt for choice, with over 150 contesting parties). And he has children, for whom he professes to be a protective father.
Perhaps I underestimate the desperation of ‘the masses’ … perhaps the DA’s opportunity to demonstrate an effective alternative to ANC governance on a provincial level will swing significant votes away from the ANC in the local elections next year.
… but I doubt it.
JZ discredits himself far more than a Facebook group ever will… Question is, will it matter?
Nope! Not when your voters are all facists!
Zuma …and by association the ANC, is a confused,muddled,poorly rehearsed and meaningless “Stand up comedy weak joke”. A joke,that is being played upon all of us,South Africans. The audience, however,(even those with a bizzare and strange scence of humour) attending this very weak show..and starting to see (as you say)..that the Joke is On Us..and its actually, not very funny . And like all shows, that are weak and fail to impress..the audience will leave and their doors, will eventually close. The ANC’s days are numbered. I am just hoping, there is a happy ending.
It’s worse: Zuma is now a puppet and the ANC faction fighting will once again sap all energies, as they jostle for position. Just like nothing could get done (and no-one could get fired) while the Mbeki vs Zuma back-stabbing was in play. Zuma is impotent. All he can do now is call for indabas and inquiries and audits and etc. More expense and zero outcome. It’s not a good picture. The cost of supporting this non-leader is massive – and we will pay for it in poverty and military crackdowns as the in-fighting becomes fiercer and breaks into the open.
@Lehlohonolo, do you honestly believe that what Marius has written here, “is complete trash”. Do you honestly believe that the country can go on like this? Do you honestly believe that SA can continue to be misruled,corrupted and mismanaged the way it has by the ANC and its cadres..and then,hope to leave a legacy for your children and hopefully, grandchildren,one day. Sit down Lehlohonolo, ..and in a quiet moment…try answer these questions, honestly.
And lastly..when you have…Do you really think , all that is written in Marius’s column and what you read blazoned across many news paper,evey day..is a “Mass Media Plot” ,with the sole intention,to denigrate ZS and his ANC cabul? Dont you think, what is trying to be said, is that:-”We still have a chance..but we ALL, had better wake up quickly!!??”
You laid down your concerns. Fine; what’s next??
How about voting a multi-party government into power? It could create some internal controls between the various party officials. Leaking the results to the general public would be more of a possibility. Transparency will improve.
How do we do that? The standard answer of a Saffer on the question of voting is: “I do not vote because I do not like the ANC and there is no real opposition…and…I will never vote for the DA”. I heard this answer many times when the NP was in power. That is precisely why they stayed in power for so long.
To get a “one party” government changed into a multi-party government, all unhappy souls should (1) vote come hell of high water (2) vote for any opposition party whether they like the party or not, preferably (but not necessarily) a party with some base.
Campaigning should concentrate on (1) “more parties in government will enhance transparency”. (2) A “no vote” goes mostly to the party with the most votes; in our case the ruling party. (3) “no voters” must not complain about the results as they have contributed to the ruling party’s victory.
Try if it works in your own municipality in the coming elections. You might be surprised!!
@Perplexed: The reality is, actually, that I was not even referring to the reports in the mass media, my main focus was on reporting the “complete trash” emanating from social networking sites and opinion pieces, columns and commentary made by real, ordinary South Africans pro- or anti-ANC.