It seems to me that the Polokwane conference has been like a newsprint and analysis vortex, sucking in all commentary into an incessant stream of words around a central thesis of “Will he or won’t he?” Well, now we all know the answer to that question, and we need to drag ourselves out of Polokwane and start looking forward to 2008, 2009 and beyond.
This has been the most hotly contested ANC election in more than 50 years, and undoubtedly a battle between contrasting styles and principles. There is much disillusionment within ANC ranks, and the stench of fear emanating both from traditional business circles and suburban dinner tables is palatable.
The first question is thus: How will South Africa react? In the near term, much of the nation will react with unbridled joy, while others will naturally react with gloom. In the middle, the realists will react with a sense of inevitability. Zuma’s appointment should largely be factored into the stock market, and while there may be some panic moves on the rand in the short term, these should be muted. There will be those who in their gloom will make plans to leave the country, and I wish them well, although I will not be sad to see them go.
The second is: How will the world react? We’ve already seen Zuma doing the international rounds, visiting influential business conferences and key investment banks to share his views of a Zuma presidency. Much of the response from these business leaders has been positive, and one may see a muted response from global business and, consequentially, I hope, in FDI outflows. They will all wait for that first major move. Governments will react with plastic smiles and announcements of congratulations for Zuma, while privately using fleets of interns to find out anything they can about the new president’s likes, dislikes and (gasp) policies.
Zuma will have to clarify his positions on key economic fundamentals quickly, and I would expect him to come out in 2008 and 2009 expounding a commitment to the status quo. He will announce some small potential alterations, adjusting budgets to target poverty alleviation, restructuring the police force or calling for stronger sentences for criminals. There will be much talk of the strength of the Constitution and the need to improve the government’s response to HIV/Aids. There will be no sudden moves, as he will be watched like a hawk. He will rely on Motlanthe and the NEC heavily for much of his policy direction, as well as using the widely respected Motlanthe as a bulwark against those who distrust him. He will undoubtedly schedule imbizos with a cross-section of business leaders, social luminaries and other important national figures, all the while entrenching his “man of the people” status.
Zuma will also look to make moves to unify the party quickly, and this may be his biggest challenge. I would imagine he will pay great respects to Mbeki, showering him with praise and hugging him at any and every opportunity. Mbeki will be visibly sick. Zuma will probably use the newly elected NEC to draft a strategy document on the future of the ANC, subsequently calling a series of regional party conferences to debate the document, and thus draw out some unity behind it.
The 2009 elections will be a critical bell-weather of the damage done to the ANC, and the numbers to watch will not necessarily be the ANC’s total share of vote, but potentially the poll turnouts. The ANC has never faced such a split in member wishes, but there will undoubtedly be few members who will be able to stomach voting for another party, such is the strength of “freedom-party voting”. Markinor studies have shown that Zuma holds only 40% of the ANC base, and this will prove a heavy burden to carry. How we gauge this trend will be in voter turnout, in how many ANC members will essentially abstain from voting as a show of their lack of support for JZ.
Mbeki, on the other hand, will now be trapped in a classic lame-duck presidency, having staked his legacy on this leadership battle. He has used every ounce of his rapidly diminished political influence in this one, alienating many in his party, and he is now in extreme deficit. There will be segments of the alliance that will act vindictively and some that will be more magnanimous. Mbeki, however, will be hamstrung, as the NEC will likely stall any new initiatives until a new party strategy has been set.
It will be a sad end for a man who has given his life for the party, and it will diminish his importance in the relative success of post-apartheid South Africa. To write off Mbeki for his last two years of paranoid leadership will be a mistake. He has done more to advance South Africa domestically and internationally than any other president barring Mandela. Yes, there have been errors in judgement, notably on Aids and Zimbabwe, but South Africa could have been a very, very different country without his steady hand at the tiller.
The 800-pound gorilla in the room is the NPA decision to prosecute Zuma, which looks very likely early in the new year. This will drive Zuma underground, and will play havoc with the party’s attempts at unity as old wounds are reopened. How he, and the ANC, reacts to this may well be the most important indicator of the next decade of ANC rule.
What is important from a practical point of view is how this will impact on service delivery – will local and provincial politicians now start jockeying for positions post 2009, which may/may not cause service delivery to suffer – planned projects / programmes delayed or put on the back burner for quicker and visible gains to score points. Working with local government, we have seen that it took on average about 18 monhts after the last local govt elections for municipal operations to become normal again as local politicians wanted to assert their authority and approval for planned programmes / projects. How will the ANC deal with these issues?
Jonty,
Thank you for your balanced view on the matter, its refreshing.
The ANC has spoken, and now the citizens of this country must speak. We are not lame ducks who should be dictated to by 4000 people. We should seek accountable leadership and promote a stronger opposition and protect the values enshrined in our constitition. Civil society should get off its whiney backside and do something.
I for one think President Mbeki should call for an early general elections, Call their bluff. There is no united ANC,they can choose to live in a state of denialism, but the whole world has seen how “united” they are. President Mbeki will not be able to do anything as head of state going forward. And I do not think he should allow himself to be drawn into the scramble for positions, resources and power that will soon take place. Let them have their cake and eat it because now they have to deal with people who have become accustomed to hooliganism as a means to get what they want.
It is only in South Africa that a self-admitted philanderer with no morality to speak off and a man who have only kept himself out of jail, an in the ANC race, by spending R 12 million Rand of taxpayer’s money on evasive technicalities, can be elected as president.
In statistics-speak this would mean that more than 60% of South Africans have exactly the same morals, or lack of it, than Zuma.
I wonder what could have been done for the poor with Zuma’s R 12 million in legal costs.
I suppose its time to pack my bags, and my family, for foreign shores.
Jonn
Thank you South Africa.
Once again the capacity for maturity and political consciousness in South Africa has been re-inforced.
In any other corner of the globe, such passion and emotions as we have witnessed in POlokwane – would long ago have been expressed behind the barrel of a gun.
Here in South Africa – an obviously dissatisfied electorate, has addressed revolution, and coup-de-tat through political channels……we must justly commend all involved and hope that every other corner of the world can learn from South Africans – once again,.
We can proudly announce than when it comes to politics and tolerance — South Africa has again emerged exemplarly…
Well Done!
Jonty, I think we will get a much better answer to the type of policies and actions JZ may follow if he continues the Mbeki tradition of writing for the ANC weekly newsletter. But maybe that would be one of the casualties. Questions for the new ANC – how will JZ & the top brass communicate with the grassroots post Polokwane?
I’m quite surprised at how few South Africans are celebrating the wonderfull and significant political event we have just witnessed. Members of the ruling party have just changed their leader. Where the political elite in the party were starting to look like tyrants the members of the party have set a precedent which will define the character of our democratic country.
Hats off and the deepest respect for the delegates who have voted overwhelmingly for a new direction. How much longer will the poor and suffering have to wait for a better life. The sick have to try comprehend a ridiculous policy that leaves them with nothing. Mr Zuma is promising universal education. With that alone he deserves a chance.
Ofcourse he won’t be doing very much until 2009 as he won’t be in government – and might be in court. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if Mr Mbeki declared he had understood the will of the people, and for the sake of South Africa immediately stepped down as head of state. He could recapture all the respect he once had and lost and leave office with dignity and move onto better things as a world class statesman. We dare to dream.
Now, does this mean he (Zuma) will stop singing that ‘uyangibambezela – umshiniwam’ – you are holding me back from my machine gun tune? He has his machine gun now, doesn’t he? Time will tell what he will do with it…
And how much time do we have to pack those bags and family for foreign shores?
This is sort of good news for the future. If this rift can turn into a tear (or a few) we could soon have the RANC(Red ANC), CANC (Conservative ANC), HANC (Herstigte ANC), PANC (Progressive ANC), etc.
Instead of the current rancid, cancerous, hancky-pancky political setup…
Can somebody please explain to me what constitutes a scandal in South African politics these days?
From my home across the oceans, politicians can (and do) lose their jobs when they simply fail to report the fact that a junior employee in their department lost a CD of data.
Zuma would have (rightly in my opinion) been consigned to the political junk-heap years ago.
Why oh why does South Africa forgive their leaders so willingly?
As an aside, I am not convinced of this ‘Man of the People’ tag either. I had the ‘pleasure’ of sitting next to Mr Zuma on a flight back from Cape Town roughly 10 years ago. I didn’t even know who he was back then, but as I sat down I looked him in the eye and said ‘Hello, how are you?’ as you would to a fellow passenger – only to receive a cold disdainful stare straight back. Oh well, not the man of my people then…
The fact that Zuma only has the support of 40% of the ANC’s base, plus that half of South Africans think he’ll “bring disaster to South Africa” is extremely significant. Zuma will be the central issue of the 2009(8?) elections, and whenever the presidential candidate of a party IS the issue, inevitably that party suffers at the ballot box. This might be the first election since 1994 which won’t be a racial census. So let’s all calm down, cancell plans to leave the country, register and vote for the opposition. There will be many EX-ANC voters doing the same.
The problem with Mbeki is that he distanced himself from the people, centralised power to too few, had bizarre ideas about HIV AIDS and actively assisted Robert Mugabe achieve his sbasket case. He also treated his alliance partners with distain. No wonder he lost so convincingly.
There is no ‘man of the people there’. He is cashing in on Mbeki’s faults. You only need to look at the way he smiles at his followers with that ‘jah, I knew i would be victorious smug on his face.’
People are foolish to think that he cares about ordinary South Africans and the poor. Zuma is the biggest capitalist, so proven by the millions he received from Shabir in exchange for favours and his million rand mansion in the Johannesburg’s suburb of Forest Town!
I still think there could have been a nomination from the floor for a 2nd or 3rd candidate, but when you look at the votes, you can see that those people went there knowing they would vote for Zuma and the people believed to be in his camp and nobody else.
Anyway what is done is done, only time will tell where we are headed as a country…
Come 2009 the votes will steer into other political parties…
On the question of packing bags in order to shift to some other country out there… it is interesting that many people who have left on the basis of such fears either are coming back or considering doing so. There are better reason for leaving the country than those that are based on who is the new President on ANC. There is risk involved here, yes! But that on its own does not guarantee a loss. Risk also mean potential gain as well, let us not forget.
We had the same thing, when Tito was pointed, when Trevor was appointed… people used to think the country will come to a stand still when Mandela steps down! Actually, I think we are in a better position than under the NP (New or Old).
It is not so much as what Zuma will do as what the economy won’t do. We have run out of electricity for the medium term, so no growth. I think Mbeki will breathe a sigh of relief in knowing that he won’t have to explain to the poor on why the country is going to loose jobs.
JZ is inheriting a major headache. Does he have the ability to deal with it?
“And how much time do we have to pack those bags and family for foreign shores?”
Has Thobeka lost hope about South Africa or is it just a last kick of a dying horse?
This sort of change was absolutely necessary.
What I find disturbing is that each member of the new Zuma Zuma team that was elected received 2300 and a hand full of votes, not one receiving 1952 and another 2519. A little too convenient né. How much political patronage was involved? What positions of office and what money or services were promised? What kick-backs were discussed? (Something that the South African Courts have already ruled Zuma has done in the past)
Oh for a truly democratic South Africa with an electorate who understands that you throw out useless politicians, not change inept ones for corrupt and immoral ones…
thanks Jonty, a refreshing balanced view
Jonty,
I would not underestimate Jacob Zuma or the ANC. They will together get far more than 40% of the vote. In fact I think that in 2009 they will win over 80% of the vote in a massive turnout like we’ve never seen. The ANC may even win a two thirds in every province including the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, where Zuma hails from. Just look at the groundswell of support for Zuma at the Polokwane conference. I think we may see the beginning of the second stage of our revolution. The first being political liberation and the second being economic enancipation. By tilting left the ANC will no doubt be in a much stronger position to govern this country and deliver to the masses.
You can be rest assured Mr. Zuma won’t be touching anything to do with strengthening punishment dished out to criminals UNTIL he knows for sure of his fate regarding pending criminal charges against him! Anyone in his shoes would be a much worse fool to act otherwise. I hope he’s not any worse than he’s proven himself in the past…hehehe!!!
But the man is at the helms now (apparently the “people” have spoken) and should be given the benefit of the doubt…for people change! Hopefully he’ll change for the better between now and the next country elections in 2009 for our country’s sake.
We can yap this yap that all we want about why he should NOT have been the chosen one. However the fact that he is now Presiding over the most influential party in SA remains not matter how loud one screams foul! The longer one takes to absorb and learn to positively live with the fact (denial) that Zuma is the new ANC leader the worse one is negatively affected. One can’t afford that unless they of course have time to waste, life needs to go on…
So, let’s not hate the player at least for now and allow the player time to settle and show his real colors in the game. Then if we don’t like what we see happening in the game in due course, and the player in question (Zuma) is attributable to spoiling the game for the “people”, we’ll mostly know what not to do in the next country elections to chose the next governor. It will be a once beaten twice shy thing, lest we be collectively worse fools! And this time(2009…Unless Mbeki can’t stomach the situation that long) around, the REAL people will be given an opportunity to SPEAK (if things haven’t deteriorated to a point of nothingness) instead of the “Zuma-Zuma Umshini Wam” gang witnessed during Polokwane.
Thanks Jonty for your informative views on the potential sway of things.
In thought I trust.
@ Kevin Hughes >>
80% No flippin way!
@ Thobeka, honestly though, Mshini wam is a nice song, just listen to the beat/rhythm and ignore the words…it’s a catchy tune, serious! hehehehe
Delegates where voting according to a premandated list of positions. 1505 Votes for Mbeki indicates that some positions where changed at the conference.
why will you not be sad to see some people leaving the country? perhaps they had higher standards than the current unacceptable standards (for crime, Aids etc) and their going means they slide even further. I’d be sad to see any South Africa leave. I don’t think it is helpful to say if you don’t like it leave. I really think we need to start being inclusive and more connected as a nation. Or does it all start and stop with the Boks?
The “if you don’t like it leave” song is so yesterday!
It’s no longer only whites who leave the country, black and white are pursuing all kinds of goals all over the world.
For white kids, leaving is in fact the only option for them to pursue a career and has nothing to do with politics. Most South Africans don’t deny that AA is necessary, and in that environment white Children’s career decisions move them overseas. many of them still love this country, support the springboks, drive miles to get SA beer, and will return at the drop of a hat for a holiday, or if a rewarding career move opens up.
Lets not label everybody who moves as being racist, after all we all need to make a living !