Africa’s illustrious uncle, Robert Mugabe, has perfected the art of political survival using the time-honoured tactic of divide and rule. Mugabe’s most precious lifeline was waking up on the morning of October 12 2005 to the news that the MDC had split into two formations. It was sweet music to his ears. Morgan Tsvangirai should have done everything in his power to avoid the split; sadly, he did not. For his sins, he is now reaping the fruits of failing to hold together the MDC as a cohesive unit.
Long before the advent of the MDC, Mugabe has with such deadly skill always exploited the dynamics that come with the divide-and-rule paradigm. First he divides in order to weaken. Once weakened, he moves in to complete the job, completely swallowing the enemy. In the Zanu vs Zapu years, it was not uncommon to find large contingents of Shona corporals in Matabeleland and equally an inordinate number of Ndebele officers in Mashonaland. Through years of sustained manipulation of sectarian interests, complemented by a long tradition of patronage, Zapu was eventually annihilated in the 1987 GNU.
For Mugabe, the MDC split in 2005 was therefore a godsend. It gave him the one answer he needed to all the vexing problems a united MDC would have posed. Those of us who have long concluded that the GNU talks were fucked the very day the two MDC formations came into being are not entirely off the mark. With the split came the opportunism and expediency sought by the one camp over the other — the very dynamic our illustrious uncle has meticulously exploited at every single turn.
That said, many have vociferously criticised Morgan for indecisiveness, even going as far as calling him inept for his refusal to budge on the so-called sticking points of the power-sharing/power-transfer negotiations. It was literally yesterday when all lauded Tsvangirai for his courage bordering on martyrdom. We regarded him as the embodiment of Zimbabweans’ hopes in what has now become an epic struggle for freedom. Today, Morgan is maligned for exercising his discretion on how to best ensure that the will of all long-suffering Zimbabweans is protected.
Part of the tragedy we share as a continent is that we tend to have such short memories. Far too many countries have lived through the euphoria of change only to be disappointed when the new leaders prove to be no better than their predecessors. If we are impatient with Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe risks going through the same disappointing see-saw of change-has-come-and-yet-nothing-has-changed.
Transformation is a delicate process with a high quality-control requirement in order for it to succeed. A transitional order that does not exorcise the elitist privileges of the incumbents in power, and especially those who will take over from them, will not be sustained for much longer before Zimbabwe reverts back to square one. Zimbabwe is not looking for a change of guard but a change of heart, a change of ethos, a change of destiny; a regeneration on multiple layers of political, economic and social governance.
In the face of the intensifying divide-and-rule tactics that Mugabe is exploiting to negotiate his continued stay in power (including the convening of Parliament this week), the warring MDC parties would do well to reconsider their self-interests. With SADC already disposed of, Mugabe now has his sights set on the two MDC formations, waiting to pounce.
There is a very possibility that by this time tomorrow, the MDC will have morphed from being a truly representative people’s party to one made irrelevant by sectarian interests. Indeed, the Welshmans, Arthurs and Morgans of Zimbabwe’s “opposition” would do well to watch Animal Planet and study the instinctive response of a beleaguered zebra herd facing up to the challenge of a lone predator. The fate of naive kudus sharing the watering hole with a famished lion, let alone a raging one, is a no-brainer.
Imagine what a great African state Zimbabwe could be if Mugabe with all the guile and craftiness, channels his energy into serving his people instead of himself and his hedonistic form of governance.
A split in the party would apply some kind of equality. Neither Arthur’s splinter group from the MDC or Simba’s splinter group from Zanu-PF have any relevance. It is still Morgan v Mugabe, with Mugabe holding the power and the support of Mbeki and the SADC dictators, and Morgan the support of the people – as it has been since 2000.
Interesting, this rejection of Zimbabwe’s Parliament, considering that the MDC is the most powerful party there. Yet another lost opportunity, alas.
Brilliant piece.
How can parliament be convened while talks are yet to be concluded?
It will also be very interesting to see which party the speaker comes from.
Politics are difficult to understand at the best of times. African politics are as transparent as the colour of the average African skin
According to arithmatic, at least one Zanu MP must have voted for the MDC speaker. So that’s a beginning.
And as for Mugabe being Africa’s Uncle. Do you remember what “Tonton Macoute” Stands for and what they did as “Wiced Uncles.”?
Ask the Haitians.
Mbeki and Mugabe’s little ploy to elevate the so called “MDC” splinter group did not work did it? Even Zanu-PF don’t want them – look at the results for the election of speaker!
Yes, Mugabe seems to be running rings around both factions of the MDC, applying his devious machinations with consummate skill. It’s a feature of his modus operandi we’ve become accustomed to.
Robert Mugabe is anything but a fool.
However, with inflation running at fourteen million percent, the country must surely be about to collapse like a house of cards.
And then what?
why are not more like you,africa would be a much better place,thank’s
You posted your view early today. I think the events of today in Zim parliament have backfired on Arthur and Bob. The good news is that Arthur has been shown for what he really is. A politicial would lost his constituency seat but wanted to be a power-broker who thwarts the will of the people as reflected in the March poll. He had overplayed his hand and Bob would no longer found him useful because he could not deliver his own MP’s to the service of Zanu PF.
I am pessimistic that this would force Mugabe to compromise at negotiations. Knowing Bob and his friends, I suspect that next time he will decree that parliament should always vote by a show of hands to avoid the secret ballot. Alternatively, arrest and detain enough MDC MP’s before any crucial votes in parliament to engineer a “majority”.
Morgan’s MDC has to stick it out and keep the eye on the prize. The prime Minister not to be appointed by the “president” but by parliament. The prime Minister should be the head of govt. Prime Minister should be accountable parliament. Prime Minister must appoint Cabinet.
I would venture to say that it is Zanu-PF that is starting to shows signs of cracks.
Morgan must have patience, Bob cannot print money forever to pay his troops, etc. Bob has already done 12 zeroes on the Zim dollar. That makes him the biggest ‘nothing’ president ever.
it’s telling that morgan’s guy is speaker.
it’s also quite clear that the rift in zanu is much bigger than previously thought because without zanu’s help, morgan’s guy would not be speaker.
so this plan is backfiring, from bob’s point of view.
morgan’s determination to NOT be another nkomo is winning him fans in unexpected places, it seems.
Morgan has been fighting for 8 years – his whole country, and all the free world backs him. AND he has the best advisors from these supporters. He will NOT make a mistake.
My friend all moan that why can’t SA have such a leader?
MDC seems to start flexing its muscle, e.g. in parliament, but time will tell whether they can stand up to continued harrassment and start exerting influence. In another context it was pointed out that Bob M has usurped the institutions on which democracy and proper government depends, like a free press, independent judiciary, uncorrupted army and police, and last but not least, a focused reserve bank. Any agreement which leaves significant power with Bob and his minions will hardly be conducive to Zim’s recovery.
The people’s party?
Now there’s an oxymoron of note.lol