The most unfortunate reality at this moment is that our collective fate and future is in the hands of just over 4 000 ANC delegates to next week’s Polokwane conference when the party is facing its worst internal crisis yet. Therefore, the key question we should all be asking is just how this conference can reach crucial decisions not only about who the next president of the ANC and ipso facto the country will be, but also about our deep and unprecedented social crisis and the way forward when the ruling party is imploding before our eyes.
What the media have reported just over the past week alone should leave every one of us — no matter what our own views and party or political affiliations might be — deeply concerned about the future of this country. Reports of dirty tricks and even allegations of ministers bribing branch delegates with money, drinks and other sordid incentives — such as promises of government jobs and contracts — to obtain support for current president Thabo Mbeki have shown the putrid depths to which some campaigners have sunk, though they deny it.
These and many other accusations and counter-accusations between the Jacob Zuma and Mbeki camps in the past few weeks have reached fever pitch and thereby set the most dismal scene imaginable on the eve of the most important conference in the history of the ANC. The decision by the ANC Women’s League to back Zuma two weeks ago has only served to deepen and extend the already seemingly intractable divisions within the ANC and the entire tripartite alliance.
Add to that the serious divisions that support for Zuma has opened up in Cosatu, its affiliates and the SACP and we have on the whole a poisoned and vicious situation within the ANC and its allies just days before the conference. How in such a destructive environment can they be vested with the responsibility to take decisions that will affect our society for the next five years and beyond? In fact, should the conference in the first place even take place in such a deeply negative atmosphere? Probably not. But with months of logistical arrangements and at this late hour it is inconceivable that it could be postponed.
The big problem of having this conference in such a terribly hostile climate is that it makes the likeliness of acrimonious divisions beyond Polokwane that much greater. That does not augur well for the Mbeki administration, the entire ruling party and Parliament between now and the 2009 elections. If Zuma wins the presidency next week, there can be little or no doubt that this poisoned atmosphere between his supporters and those of Mbeki will plague the government, the ANC and Parliament at least until the 2009 elections and probably beyond.
But there are more troubling ironies. A party that has clearly departed from its earlier redistributionist policies and embraced — even if reluctantly — neo-liberalism is now tasked with charting the way forward in a country facing its biggest social crisis yet as a result of it. This is the inevitable consequence of the unrivalled dominance the ANC enjoys despite this reality. And it is a peculiarity we may be stuck with for many more years to come because of the predominantly racial voting trends since 1994 — in a country in which the black population is the overwhelming majority of the population — and the absence of a strong leftist opposition.
This is also the unfortunate consequence of the current political system in which Parliament and the ruling party decide the presidency of the country and not the broader electorate. In fact, it is this constitutional system and the overwhelming mass support it receives that has enabled the ANC to do what it likes and conduct itself with virtual impunity because no matter what it — or more specifically the Mbeki-led Cabinet — says or does, it is finally the political kingmaker.
But for now all eyes are on Polokwane because no matter what, the show must go on. But will it? With several reports about the highly questionable status of many of the delegates who cast their presidential nominations a few weeks ago and the ongoing heated controversy about the status of the decision of the ANC Women’s League to vote for Zuma — especially in the current bedevilled climate and amid reports this past week of various forms of attempted bribery of delegates — we must not be surprised if the conference either does not get off the ground or is aborted later.
How can the African continent’s oldest liberation movement, in the richest and most powerful country on the continent, proceed to have the most important conference in its history, at this most critical juncture in our history, in the midst of its biggest and ugliest crisis ever? For many good reasons it does not make good sense.
It is only the ANC’s most important conference because of the split in views otherwise it would be just another conference.
The ANC is just too broad a church and sooner or later it has to shed some members to another political party so that it can get its focus back.
My view is that this is essential if democracy is to last in this country.
I JUST WISH TO WARN THE SOUTH AFRICANS IN PARTICULAR MEMBERS OF THE ANC TO BE WARY IN KEEPING A LEADER IN POWER.JUST LOOK AT US IN ZIMBABWE WE ARE NOW A LAUGHING STOCK OF THE WHOLE WORLD.THE TENDENCY BY A LEADER TO CLING TO POWER AT ALL COST SHOULD BE NIPPED IN THE BUD.HE HAD HIS CHANCE AS A LEADER OF THE PARTY AND GOVT.OTHERS BEFORE HIM RELIQUECHED THEIR POSTS.WHY NOT DO THE SAME NOW?THIS IS INDEED A DANGEROUS SCENARIO.WHAT IF DOWN THE LINE HE FORCES A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO ENABLE TO STAND FOR PRESIDENT FOR A THIRD TERM.SOUTH AFRICANS BEWARE
I will not quibble on some of the details. Instead, a question. Can the crises create oppoutunities, and who will benifit? Thanks, for a thought provoking article.
The article is excessively gloomy and alarmist. A good democratic contest breathes life into any party. It is great the ANCWL showed that they are are human beings first and have mammary glands second.
Owen, I would not have said it bettr.
Dauti Nyoni, the problem with shallow analysis is that it is “in fact” shallow. The mere fact that the nomination process has shown that an incumbent president can be “rejected” through a democratic process without crisis, should confirm the solidity of democracy in South Africa. Examples are plenty to show that South Africa is unlikely to see the morass that bedevils many developing countries (refer to the NGC in 2005 where democratic processes reversed the decisons of a leadership, more specifically the NWC). The frantic interventions by Mbeki supporters in government to reverse the Zuma tide, democratically, are clear indications of the solidity of democracy in this republic. Suggestions of bribery and intimidation should be dealt with in appropriate forums, which forums in fact exist!
Through a majority vote our president was forced to tone down on his assertions of HIV AIDS (this does not occur in the so-called established democracies)!!!
It is therefore my view, based on the above and numerous other facts, that this fear of dictatorship is merely a red herring, of extraordinary proportions. The President of the ANC directs policy under supervision of the NEC. The president of the ANC is akin to the chairman of the board of directors of a company, the SG is the de facto CEO! Examples aplenty exist to illustrate that a president of the ANC can be overuled both by the NEC, if he overules the NWC, its members need only refer the matter to the NEC whose voice is supreme! Where is dictatorship in such a scenario??? Indeed there is no factual example of an NEC decision being ignored by the present president, yet these fears still exist. Pure falsification of fact.
If Mbeki is elected he will not be able to unilateraly determine his successor (for God’s sake, he has even failed to enforce his candidacy)! Commentators like yurself clearly are in an analytical chasm.
Ebrahim, thanks. I do think that this crisis will lead to a coalescence of leftist forces inside and outside the ANC alliance. So over the medium to longer term I think it will benefit the left, but this depends on how things play out post-Polokwane.
Nothing is certain.
Graham, you worry me if you regard much of what has been happening as a “good democratic contest”. And your comment about the ANCWL – given Zuma’s stated views earlier – is ridiculously and brutally cynical, inappropriate and in poor taste.
I agree with Graham that this article is excessively gloomy and alarmist. It is worth reflecting on the fact that at the very same time North of the Limpopo, ZANU will be holding their conference during which their lapdog delegates will unanimously extend Robert Mugabe’s 27 years of power and (for the most part) misrule.
I’d far rather have SA’s ruling party engage in a democratic process, acrimonious and unsettling as it may be to ensure that no one person clings to power.
Mr Harvey,
1:What is it that worries you in the women’s league vote.
2:The ANC is “leftist:; can there be another strong leftist opposition?
3:I would argue that these “imploding ” are just normal democratic squabbles; kindly see what the Americans are doing. You ain’t seen anything yet
4:I do not think the future of the country is in a worse situation that 1976, 1987-1992
5: You may tell us about the divisions in the Zuma camp. I follow their blog, I think they argue in a very mannered manner
6:But there are more troubling ironies. A party that has clearly departed from its earlier redistributionist policies and embraced — even if reluctantly — neo-liberalism is now tasked with charting the
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If there is anything you should praise them for; it is the fact that they want to steer the party back; even if is at the cost of quarreling
7:If Zuma wins the presidency next week, there can be little or no doubt that this poisoned atmosphere between his supporters and those of Mbeki will plague the government, the ANC and Parliament at least until the 2009 elections and probably beyond.
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I think both Mr Mbeki and Mr Zuma would not agree, opposed to each other as they are. South Africa will not allow this to destroy the country
8:the overwhelming mass support it receives that has enabled the ANC to do what it likes and conduct itself with virtual impunity because no matter what it — or more specifically the Mbeki-led Cabinet — says or does, it is finally the political kingmaker.
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But this precisely the corrective action, which should please you as well
9:But will it? With several reports about the highly questionable status of many of the delegates who cast their
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I am on holiday and read all the papers. I have really come across this, unless you give us proof
10:How can the African continent’s oldest liberation movement, in the richest and most powerful country on the continent, proceed to have the most important conference in its history, at this most critical juncture in our history, in the midst of its biggest and ugliest crisis ever? For many good reasons it does not make good sense.
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I could not make sense of it
Lastly; I was a blogger with thetimes; what actually saddened me there was topics like this one , which have a lot of things presented as the gospel truth, but on closer scrutiny do not hold much water. I might have read your article incorrectly. Do not get too scared.
At any rate no one has yet spoken about the merits of a united political party. stop sanctyfying the ANC. It was always a coalition of people fighting the apartheid government, a movement. For instance the ANC is too much of a cross held organisation that when one talks of a tripartite alliance one forgets that the ANC is the alliance of, broadly speaking, COSATU supposedly representing workers, the SACP and the last less powerful and less organised individuals who do not have the backing of the other two blocks the alliance known as the ANC.
My enemy was apartheid not capitalism. Blade’s (I do not know about Blade)supporters’ enemy is big business. Vavi’s constituency well I do not know?
At any rate look at what a united strong Zanu PF has done to the political landscape of Zimbabwe.
Recently most commentators have been dishing out to the public some tragic comments on the eve of Polokwane. And this is another one.
Anyway we are in a democratic country.
Contestation for leadership as obtains in the ANC bodes well for democracy.There is nothing that is being swept under the carpet.The media does not learn.It vilified Comrade JZ to a point that ordinary South Africans ended up sympathising with the underdog-Comrade JZ.Unlike in my country,Zimbabwe where one leader holds sway in his own party and dominates a pathetically organised opposition;South Africa provides the democratic space for aspiring leaders to challenge the incumbent.At this stage this reflects democracy at its best within the ANC.If Zuma wins,and fights for the presidency with the opposition,the opposition should see this as a godsend-an opportunity to get into Government by amplifying the weaknesses of JZ.Surprisingly and as usual its the opposition DA in SA and MDC in Zimbabwe who want to dictate policies of the ruling party.In a way they are knowingly or unknowingly conceding defeat at the hands of the ruling parties before elections are held.This thinking is naive,stupid and silly and reflects the shortcomings of opposition forces in Africa.Leave the ANC to deal with its internal democratic dynamics.JZ might not be highly educated but don’t judge a book by its cover.Was Ian Smith,John Major etc educated?Only sound policies and a supportive team makes for a good President.George Bush is President of the USA but when it comes to intellectual muscle,he is a non-entity.Does this make him a useless president?
The mass media created a monster by portaying JZ as a rapist despite his acquital by the courts. The ANC has the right to elect its leaders just as all the other parties in South Africa.
The question should be, Why has the sitting president lost the popular support within the ANC? The media presents him as the savior of the country, why has he alienated so many of the ANC members? We hear of all the so called experts on “African Politics” hypothesize on JZ’s capabilities but why did the sitting president appoint him as his deputy president if he had no leadership skills? We keep hearing about corruption charges and not convictions, but how many South Africans have faced corruption allegations? We have corruption in every country including the USA.
JZ has been an effective leader within the ANC for decades and if he wins the election as the evidence seems to suggest, so be it. That is how democracy works.
I am an active supporter of the ANC, I am also a Business Administration professor in the USA. I am also a Zulu and proud of my heritage.
A gloomy article with some unfortunate truths in it. I’d say thank heavens there is the opportunity for a leadership squabble.
It is just desperately sad that the ANC couldn’t come up with better candidates. Running a country as complex as SA requires huge intellect (dare I say education) if the problems in the country are to be solved. The ANC undoubtedly has suitable people in its ranks but unfortunately they cannot compete with a strong populist leader who glibly makes promises that he is incapable of implementing. One would hope that such a populist leader would surround himself with highly competent people but history seems to show that this does not usually happen.
I’m afraid that this election could be the blind rise before the low road scenario emerges ahead of us.
I hope a ‘third way’ miraculously appears at the conference.
Ebrahim, your sister in arms, Charlene Smith, awaits…