According to the headlines in the Sunday papers, scattered among the usual hysterical rantings of the Sunday media (Eskom bonuses, the ANC firing premiers and so on), was the news that Kgalema Motlanthe has been put on to the Cabinet by the ANC NEC. This has been touted for some time and has now finally happened — the best news to come out of Parliament for some time.
To call Thabo Mbeki a lame-duck President is to cast an unnecessary insult at both ducks and presidents. After many years of being a fine statesman who can perhaps be credited with much of the success of the country after the 1994 elections (Mandela being largely a figurehead), Mbeki has recently, and to all appearances, completely lost the drum beat. The beyond-comprehension dealings with Zimbabwe are just one example of his failing grip on reality, and his worrying ability to be influenced by who knows what or whom behind the scenes.
That said, Mbeki is a growing (or maybe shrinking) irrelevancy. If the sense that he has stopped giving a shit is created either by the media or simply by the knowledge that his days are numbered, then all apologies. But it does feel that way, doesn’t it?
In his stead has risen, for many people, the spectre of Jacob Zuma, with all the emotional buttons he presses. But behind him is a man who has gone largely unevaluated and underestimated. Kgalema Motlanthe is the deputy president of the ANC and seen, by many, as the de facto power behind the coming throne. If Zuma becomes ineligible to be president (an increasingly unlikely scenario), Motlanthe may very well be the next president.
I was fortunate to attend a recent appearance by Motlanthe in front of a group of business people, school kids and academics at the GIBBS business school in Johannesburg. He agreed to face this crowd solo and simply to take questions as they came up from the floor. My expectation was a group of whingeing whities challenging him to defend Zuma or acknowledge the extent to which South Africa’s future was forfeit thanks to his party.
To a limited extent, these were the kinds of questions posed. However, almost from the moment he started speaking a palpable sense of something settled over the room. By the end of the evening I realised it was a sense of relief, and even hope. That a humble, intelligent and open politician was present this close to the new power structures in the ANC was greeted with something like shock. To many just a name, Motlanthe in that short evening got to the point where his worst nightmare audience was openly congratulating him and wishing him on to the Cabinet as soon as possible.
Like all politicians, Motlanthe has question marks against his name. He is an ardent socialist, which sticks in many people’s teeth. He has been named in some of the more public corruption allegations. However, he has never been charged with anything, and as such must enjoy the presumption of innocence we are sometimes too quick to dispense with.
The fact that he is being “forced” on to the Cabinet should be judged the same way one would judge a cat being forced to swallow a pill. The cat might not like it, but it’s got to be done. The Mbeki Cabinet has stalled in mid-air, lost touch with the population and (at best) become ineffectual. What Motlanthe represents is the rise of the post-Mbeki era, and as such he will be watched closely.
Speaking for myself, I don’t know much about him. But I have had the opportunity to sit 10m away from him and look into his eyes; to hear him honestly admit problems with corruption in the party, speak about the need to refocus on education and emphasise the importance of staying in touch with the rank-and-file members that made the ANC what it is. And he did so in a way that just felt good, in a way that Mbeki’s icy, disconnected and frequently awful speeches haven’t done for a long time.
In order to believe this is good news, you have to have a few basic ingredients in place. First, you have to believe that South Africa is fundamentally OK, despite its many problems. That loses a whole chunk of people right there. Second, you have to believe that the ANC is capable of reversing out of the ridiculous course it has taken on numerous issues in the past year or two under Mbeki’s leadership. Third, that even if Zuma becomes president, he will rely on Motlanthe to do much of the heavy lifting. And lastly, that Motlanthe himself, despite being a black man, is not in fact a corrupt criminal scumbag who only went into politics to line his own pockets.
If you’re still with me, then either you’re an ANC supporter or you’re one of the few who can see through the mire of Sunday-paper hysteria and Talk Radio 702 noise and feel the hope of some inspiring leadership on the horizon. Me, I had a much better sleep last night after hearing the news.
Jarred, have for some time had a good impression of Motlanthe but beware all political parties (left/right/racist/etc) play the good cop bad cop to perfection and the most gullible are business men. Remember how terrified business was about Mandela leaving and who was the voice of reason, intellegence, sanity and economic sense – non other than our present president.
So the ANC is doing what it is best at, public spinning and we will only know how good Motlanthe (read ANC post Mbeki) is when he takes over power.
Brent
Yes, I agree that Motlanthe is a better preference to lead the country than Zuma or Mbeki, not because he is an angel (no politician can be) but because he appears to be a thinker.
To be a thinker is to my mind an important quality in any leader. Of course a leader should have other qualities such as honesty, a good sense of judgment, an open mind, integrity and genuine concern for the wellbeing of the country. Zuma and his supporters such as Malema, Vavi and Mantashe seem to lack the ability to compose their thoughts before making public utterances and certainly seem to lack a sense of good judgment. Their recent utterances can best be described as “shooting from the hip” and appealing to the gallery for short term gain at the expense of the country in the long term. In so doing, they reveal their poor sense of judgment and that is why I and many supporters of the ANC do not have confidence that they will lead this country in the right direction.
The sad thing is that people like Motlanthe now appear to be in the minority in the ANC. That is why I will not be voting for them at the next election.
I don’t know why everyone assumes that Mbeki objects to taking in Mothlanthe. He was very close to Govan Mbeki and his son in the past. Mbeki probably prefers to work with him than with Zuma.
Also why does everyone believe that Mandela was a figurehead and Mbeki did the work? From what I read that was far from true. It was Mandela who toured the world and persuaded businesses and countries to invest in SA. Mbeki allegedly wrote some speeches – which I am very certain Mandela edited – otherwise why the difference between the speeches after Mandela left? Mandela restrained Mbeki – like when Mbeki wanted to interdict the TRC report.Once Mandela was not there – Mbeki became what he now is. Also although Mandela selected Mbeki as successor in 1994, on advice of his colleagues, it appears clear that Mandela had changed his mind by 1996, but it was too late. Mbeki had entrenched himself – and had used smear tactics against possible opponents.
I still think he’s a cunning snake. And he’s very good at what he does.
Are you talking about the same Kgalema Motlante who was the official in charge of ANC structures when they collapsed to their present dire state? Is this the same fellow who failed to alleviate the tensions between Zuma and Mbeki, by playing an outspoken facilitatory/mediatory role, pre-Polokwane? Jarred, I think you expose your naivety with this posting.
PS: “I have had the opportunity to sit 10m away from him and look into his eyes…” WTF!
Ah, another political cult figure is created.
If I had to choose between standing in JZ’s shoes or Motlanthe right now, I’d choose to be JZ any day. At least expectations of him are so low he’s bound to have a much steeper run-in to power – just like his predecessor.
I’d hate to have so much expectation heaped upon me while I still, in all likelihood, 2nd in line. At least you still had ‘Who the hell is Thabo Mbeki’ headlines as recently late as 1999.
Then he kinda grew on the media and the public before his recent calamitous free fall. I’m afraid that Motlanthe’s approval ratings are peaking a tad too soon. Recipe for a much quicker decline as soon as he starts making the inevitable unpopular (with the wealthy) decisions.
He is, after all, a politician.
In all the current chaos it feels nice to hear some positive noise. Experience over the last 15 years makes one feel insecure about the good feeling. We had that before in 1994, so had the poor and suppressed. The poor are still poor and the others are still insecure here…. or maybe less insecure in other countries.
@Ndumiso: I’m sure you’re right. However my point is more that I had a genuinely positive experience of this guy, not via the media but firsthand. You will know from reading my other stuff that I really have nothing but contempt for the mass media and the general public. I am hence overjoyed that I’ve been able to get a firsthand experience of, yes, a politician that has inspired me.
As a matter of fact, Thabo Mbeki had much the same effect on me during the 90′s, and for a good reason. He was an exceptional figure in SA politics, perhaps more exceptional than Mandela in many ways. Why he has gone so far off the charts of common sense is, I suppose, a topic worthy of much discussion. Or perhaps none at all, since his dye is now cast and (perhaps tragically) he will go down in history as something of a failure.
Jarred
My response is STILL “awaiting moderation”.
However if you want another view of Mbeki – read the biography of Cyril Ramaphosa.
First time you guys have taken over 24hrs to moderate one of my comments.
What going on Mr Ed?
Regrettably it is the same Monthlanthe who has been one of Mugabe’s most vocal supporters. Only last year he penned an article demanding for lifting of targeted sanctions against ZANU PF. At the same time only two weeks ago the ANC women’s league was expressing its solidarity with the Zanu PF Women’s League and I dare say congratulating them on their recent “defeat of the British puppets”.
That Mbeki has not been able to change Mugabe but has not followed his populist path, even when he was starring political defeat in the face, says a lot about the man.For all people say about Polokwane, Mbeki gave South Africa Polokwane. Had it not been Mbeki who braved ignominy, Polokwane would have been no contest. Cowards like Sexwale and co were too scared to brave the tsunami. The only failure of Mbeki is he did not create the voter who would vote for him. He ignored the ideological battle leaving it to less capable men like Dali Mpofu. He ost the cultural battle. He either had blind faith or was too naive to follow the stupid do not capaign mantra of the ANC when Zuma was busy staging concerts all over the place.
At the moment the country is in crisis.Really? Petrol is being siphoned off cars as fuel costs bite,metal plaques are being stolen from grave stones as are gates and any kind of metal as a response to rising metals prices, the rich and poor are feeling the effects of rising food prices, only yesterday a major employer was due to announce further job cuts. What place is that? South Africa? No the United States. Who is staging a stay-away in protest. Who is threatening mass action? Closer to home the country has been through tougher times so what has changed? The politics of the country have changed. There is now a popular opposition party that enjoys much of the media and the irony is that the opposition party happens to be the ruling party and its partners.
So Mbeki finds himself deserted by his own party who are hell bent on popularising its new leader as the Messiah who should not go to jail. In the process we have others claiming the victories of the last 14 years and not only distancing themselves from the failures but actually magnifying them and hammering them home.
Mbeki has become the fall guy by a process by a process of popular culture hegemony and manufactured discontent. How else do you explain the agenda of Cosatu over the last two years. who is not sick of seeing toyi toying everyday on TV. 2010 news has become about strikes etc. Even the overweight police cannot protest peacefully or just stay at home. Whose culture is this.
A failure of South Africa’s media has been its deliberate failure to examine the relationship between rebellion against state authority and the ANC power struggle. This includes the undermining of the judiciary as well as the recent attacks on foreigners as a protest voice.
Certainly Mr Monthlanthe has a lot of work to do, to assert himself. Fortunately he is not beholden to Vavi and co unlike Jacob Zuma who if he puts down the Kingmakers risks not only political demise but also losing the shield of protests and mass action against his impending trial. But does he have the guts to stand up to the crowd to save his country.
Mark
The MAJORITY wanted Mbeki out. If he had stood aside there could have been a contest against JZ. With Mbeki in the race any other proposed candidate would have split the vote and Mbeki would have got back in. Which is what Mbeki had banked on – and why he was devestated that the Women’s League was not so dumb as to put up a candidate.
JZ won by default. Meanwhile I notice he is swanning about parts of Africa, like Libya, where his 4 wives and 6 marriages won’t be an embarrassment.