Once upon a time there was an African country that after several years of instability seemed to be moving shakily towards reform and democracy. Its ageing despotic president had signed a power-sharing deal with the opposition that created a unity government that would precipitate a new constitution and elections.
Sounds rather like Zimbabwe, doesn’t it? But I was actually describing Rwanda in early 1994 — only months before genocide that would claim almost a million lives. While the Arusha Accords were being haphazardly implemented (but more often than not being ignored), fanatics in the countryside were setting up militia training bases. Arms and military advisers were being flown in to train and equip these ragtag groupings. President Habyarimana’s assassination in April 1994 was the catalyst for 100 days of massacres, rape and torture.
Zimbabwe is in an eerily similar situation to the one that Rwanda was experiencing before its genocide. After a decade of brutality and economic devastation, it is tempting to hope that Zanu-PF’s “partnership” with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) shows that Zimbabwe is irreversibly on the road to recovery.
Sadly, however, what we see in Zimbabwe is nothing but a false dawn: a Potemkin peace designed to lure us into the same indifferent complacency with which the world viewed Rwanda in 1994.
The violent repression that has characterised Zanu-PF’s rule continues, flouting the provisions of the Global Political Agreement (GPA), the power-sharing agreement signed with the opposition in September. Zanu-PF considers the unity deal after its defeat at the March 29 polls last year as a mere speed bump in its path of continued authoritarian rule — a speed bump which creates the illusion that it is prepared to accept reform and genuine democracy.
Don’t be fooled. Activists, lawyers and MDC supporters continue to be unlawfully harassed and detained. Senior opposition leaders face death threats. Opposition members of parliament are being targeted with ridiculous criminal charges by a brazenly partisan police and judiciary. Five have already been convicted (MPs have to resign if they serve a jail term longer than six months).
The Zanu-PF militias that unleashed a wave of brutality on suspected MDC supporters as punishment for the 2008 election result, have been accused by teachers of setting up “terror bases” at schools.
Even more frightening (and chillingly reminiscent of the prelude to Rwanda’s genocide when French weapons were despatched en-masse to Kigali) is the build-up of weapons in Zimbabwe.
Last month the International Peace Information Service (IPIS) revealed that in April 2008, Chinese arms (including several million rounds of ammunition as well as RPC7 rockets and mortars) destined for Zimbabwe reached Luanda, Angola. It has been confirmed that the arms have subsequently reached Harare. Later, in August, an additional 53 tons of ammunition were flown to Harare from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in August 2008.
There’s more. David Maynier, the Democratic Alliance’s defence spokesperson, has revealed that South Africa is seeking authorisation from its National Conventional Arms Control Committee to export ammunition to its neighbour. Maynier has been subsequently vilified by the ANC ruling party, which seems more obsessed by how the opposition MP found out about the application than about what the arms will be used for should they be authorised for export.
President Mugabe has unleashed his military on innocent civilians before — in 1982 he used North Korean-trained troops to torture and massacre thousands in Matabeleland for their alleged support for Zapu, a rival anti-colonialist movement that he eventually forced to merge with his own party.
His army’s abysmal rights record continues, with Human Rights Watch recently exposing the army’s invasion of the Marange diamond fields in November 2008 where it subsequently subjected locals to forced labour, torture and murder.
Two South African MPs, Wilmot James and Kenneth Mubu, who returned earlier this month from Zimbabwe on a fact-finding mission reported that “there are reports from credible sources of increasing paramilitary activity in the countryside.”
They explained: “Under his [Mugabe’s] personal control he has a paramilitary machine consisting of soldiers, thugs, the so-called war veterans and Zanu political commissars. There are the hit squads. The police also collaborate.” They also have reason to believe that in addition to the arms exports uncovered by IPIS “Mugabe is talking to Venezuela, Cuba and Korea to fund a war-chest in preparation for the referendum and election following on the implementation of the GPA.”
While Rwanda’s genocide was powered by ethnic hatred, this was merely a pretext: the tragedy was deliberately orchestrated by a shadowy ruling clique which knew its power was in jeopardy and which refused to sacrifice it at all cost. So while ethnic tensions in Zimbabwe are nowhere near the levels of those in Rwanda in 1994, a similar intensity of hatred exists, as does the same desperate willingness for its rulers to do whatever it takes to remain in power.
The arms flooding in and the paramilitary training in the countryside are deliberate preparations for war — a war to be inflicted by home-grown postcolonial imperialists on an innocent and undeserving citizenry so that Zanu-PF’s rapacious supremacy can continue.
We cannot ignore the warning signs. We know what happened in Rwanda in 1994. The world looked away while almost a million people were slaughtered. Will we let this happen in Zimbabwe?
You are writing fiction, and you know it.
There are people who have invested in Zimbabwe’s failure, and these can be found in the ranks of Rhodesians who think progress is only when farms are returned to them and we move back to the days of “farmer and dog in front and black worker at back of the truck”.
Beat it mate, Zimbabwe will never be a colony again. Zimbabweans are talking after almost 10 decades of meddlesome diplomacy by the West, through their Rhodesian partners in Zimbabwe, which turned brother against brother.
Rwanda, Zimbabwe…..SA?
Or shall we just pooh-pooh the notion?
How would the ANC react to a credible threat at the polls? Think about it.
Joe you are an ignoramus…people like you who cowered away from the truth that was happening in front of them allowed the Nazis to kill millions…
When a nation boasts a life expectancy of 34 years in the 21st century one can only logically conclude that there is a genocide in progress.
Genocides don’t stop on their own. They get worse. Mugabe’s military junta is already fractured around leadership issues. Its likely that these military factions will form themselves into several mini-armies and attempt to violently assert control over regions. My bets are that there will be full-scale civil war in Zimbabwe before this year is out.
Will SADC respond to a bloodbath in the region? I doubt it. More refugees will flood across the border. Xenophobic violence will break out on a wide scale throughout South Africa. Foreign investment will take flight. And Sepp Blatter will move his 2010 show to another country.
Before the selfish saffies point finger at the Zimbabwean people for not fighting back please consider that more than half the remaining 8-9million population of Zimbabweans are children. With a life expectancy of 34 years this fact is obvious. Confirmed by UNICEF which, back in 2006, reported that there were 4.5 million children needing food aid in Zimbabwe.
What can one do but spread the message in the VAIN hope that the more public opinion knows about these matters, the more difficult is would be for the perpetrators.
However, the truth is that NOBODY (of those that COULD make a difference) cares a hoot.
TRUTH NEVER PREVAILS (just see what of the Lockerbie story …)
To Joe the Plumber : I bet you don’t live in Zim, do you ? I can picture a plump plumber somehow … not a hungry and cowering Zimbabwe citizen !
The point at which a genocide ends is when the number of dead/missing people exceeds the living, resident population.
Unless there is early intervention.
Genocides are not always at Rwanda-like speed. Hitler used gas. Kills instantly. Still he didnt kill 6 million people in 3 months. It took him more than 5 years. Mugabe tried instant genocide techniques back in the 80s. He faced the same logistical problem Hitler encountered: mass disposal of bodies. Now Mugabe uses starvation, water deprivation, disease, poverty to cull the masses. And brute force randomly. The victims mostly die slowly. which is why the diagnosis of genocide is equally delayed.
One of Mugabe’s ministers, Dumisani Dabengwa, once bluntly announced : “We don’t need all these extra people. We only need about 6 million people. Let the rest die”. Since then they’ve gotten the numbers down from 14 million in 2000 to under 9 million. another 3 million to go.
How do you diagnose Genocide?
We only figured out how to absolutely diagnose Death of a human around 120 years ago. Before then we buried bodies with bells in case they woke up. Rachmaninov’s prelude in C# minor was composed to describe the horror of awakening in the coffin, then dying a second time.
Diagnosis of Death of a nation, a state of Genocide, equally needs a clinical set of criteria, beyond political opinion. and in my book a life expectancy rate of 34 would register high on the scorecard for genocide.
Interesing point. well worth, a consideration better to say something and have it proved invalid than to cast a blind eye, and look the other way when tradgedy happens.
Genocide?
Not really, as genocide has a specific meaning…race or tribe (geno) killing (cide)
The killing of the N’debele certainly was, as was the Hutu /Tutsi conflict in Rwanda.
Genocide is always political, rooted in polarization and foment of belief that all difficulties are caused by a the actions and existence of a particular race or tribe, and wiping them out will make the rest better off.
Zimbabwe is now about 85% Shona, greatly reducing the potential for mass ‘genocide’
Zimbabwe is a failed state in which the intensification of violence and excess by the state against its citizenry (present at some level in all nation states) has become extreme.
This is not particularly tribal, and does not qualify as genocide.
It is being prosecuted as a desperate course in order for the state to preserve itself at the expense of its citizens, and is the result of abysmal policies and administrative failure.
Civil war is equally unlikely …what distinct civil group would be at war with another distinct civil group existing outside ‘the state’?
History is littered with ‘leaders’ who thought their vision must be imposed upon simple people, unable to be left in peace to run their own affairs, for their own good, while the leadership, their family, friends and connections deserved special considerations and the lions share of everything.
Zim will depart, not with a bang, but with a whimper.
Will Mugabe ever release power – never. Does the MDC have any clout – NO. Guns for Mugabe are to further supress what is left of the oppostion and to ensure a resounding success for Mugabe at the next polls. All with the support of the ANC and SADC. Soon through trumped up charges against the MDC they will be in the minority and despite the fact that they were the majority in parliament, should have given them some clout, all it has done is give Mugabe and his thugs some semblance of respectability.
Governemnt of National Unity – what rubbish! We have a stolen election again with the active help of Mbeki and the ANC. Perhaps one day we will know why?
Land is a national resource and food production is the most valuable resource so it should be owned or farmed by those who know what they are doing.
To set your food store on fire is what Mugabe did to gain votes – yes he got votes but he also destroyed a breadbasket of Africa. Mugabe and his thugs are well fed but few others are.
@ Joe the Plumber
How did you reach your conclusions? There was never any mention by Alex of reverting to a colony or anything like it. And you pooh-poohed his well substantiated theory on only your stated but not substantiated opinion that Zimbabweans are talking to each other again. Alex has written an article expressing concern about the deteriorating human rights situation and the possibility that it will get even worse. He is writing about the possibility, even probability, that people, real people, will be killed on genocidal scale, and you pooh-pooh it without any real foundation.
Seems to me if you take Alex’s article and your comment, then Alex wins the contest 1000-1.
Which, sadly, represents the one in a thousandth chance there is of you being right.
I wonder where this Alex Matthews lives or how he obtains his “facts” on which he makes his ludicrous projections of a genocide in Zimbabwe. Some of us ordinary citizens of Zimbabwe are yet to see the indications of an impeding genocide in Zimbabwe in the future – whether in the short-, medium- or long-term. I suspect Alex spends most of his time listening to, and reading articles by enemies of Zimbabwe in general, and misguided oppoents of Zimbabwe in particular. Insterad of compaling about arrests of opposition politicians who have indeed committed crimes, he should be calling for a similar crack-down on culprits on the ZANU-PF side, for fairness. Otherwise he seems to be advocating for a moratorium on criminal prosecution of anyone or anything alligned to MDC-T. Joe the Plumber is right, Alex Matthews and the likes of Belle sound like they are some of the people who have or are investing heavily in Zimbabwe’s failure. Talking about projections of a genocide by end of year, someone needs to read Christopher Dell’s (former USA Ambassador to Zimbabwe) projection of the fall of the “regime” in Zimbabwe by end of 2007. Well, we are now in 2009, and 2010 is beconnng!
@ Manu … you are spot on there, mate. Im personally investing very heavily in Zimbabwe’s failure, spending nearly R1000 a month of my meagre income supporting and feeding a number of shattered refugees from Mugabe’s violence.
Bless you Belle!
Funny how there are always willing to spread Zanu-PF propaganda and vilify those who ring legitimate alarm bells.
Manu and Joe the Plumber must be well fed by the paranoïd powers that be, or they wouldn’t lie as they do.
Belle . . . . you’re definitely doing a sterling job feeding ” . . a number of shattered refugees..”. However, you’re undoing that great work by being a prophet of doom, betting “..that there will be full-scale civil war in Zimbabwe before this year is out.” because conditions in Zimbabwe do not support your projections. I work and live in a city in Zimbabwe, and have part of my extended family in rural Zimbabwe, whom I visit regularly (no less than twice a month). I therefore speak from a factual position and do not hypothesise, like I suspect you do. By making projections like you’re doing, you’re actually promoting laziness in the purported refuguees that you’re supporting, by giving them a reason not to do anything for themselves and just wait for you to spend (or rather waste) your “meagre income” on them. If truth be told, no one from Zimbabwe at this point in time can support the fictition that there is political violence in Zimbabwe right now. I am prepared to accommodate you and drive you around Zimbabwe, at my own expense, so that you can see for yourself, the situation on the ground. Yes, the economy is in a mess, although things have kinda stabillised since the formation of the all-inclusive govt. The people that you’re presently supporting a most likely economic regufees, and not running away from “..Mugabe’s violence”.
Chris DEHON on August 18th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
I truly DON’T even wish I was “…….well fed by the paranoïd powers that be,…”. However, I am just a Zimbabwean, who just wishes my country well. Well, my offer to Belle is also extended to you, just so that you can speak from a position of facts. I hold no brief for ZANU-PF, or any political party for that matter, so I have no propaganda to spread!
Manu, I understand your irritation with ‘doom and gloom’ takes on Zim. You obviously have income and are able to prosper. Improvements this year have been palpable for Zims in your position. I too have family and friends in Zim who are rejoicing at things like normal inflation, shops with food, petrol. I also understand why the relieved ‘Haves’ are turning a blind eye to the millions of people who have nothing and have not experienced relief from their suffering. All of you have experienced an overload of suffering for a decade. Denialism is understandable.
The majority of zims, who live in high-density townships or rural areas don’t share your cheer. With unemployment at 90% the majority have access to No Cash. People in rural areas who have never even seen a greenback now have to rely on barter. If they have anything to barter, that is.
What’s your objective take on a 34 year lifespan? Do you not see this as indicator of an exceptionally high death rate among your younger population? your future generations? Does it not worry you?
Joe the Plumber was the American in the Obama campaign.
This one is also probably American.
Don’t expect him to know anything except Black Power propaganda.
Belle….. Please don’t get me wrong. I NEVER implied that all is well in Zimbabwe at the moment. I do share your sentiments on everything else, EXCEPT your wild projections of an impending civil war by year end. A lot of what you’re basing your postulations on, such as the activities of the military is all based more on articles by or from people/organisations that have never been known to be objective about Zimbabwe, rather than on actual facts on the ground.
I am therefore saying, while we should indeed strive to point out the messy state of affairs in Zimbabwe, we should refrain from distorting facts to support fiction. I am not one to “..turn a blind eye to the millions of people who have nothing…” because you’re describing members of my own family who live in both urban high-density areas and rual areas. However, I will not be doing such people, or anyone else, any good by making them believe that there is nothing positive to expect from contemporary political and economic developments, by claiming that all will be destroyed by some “impending civil war”. Let’s tell people the truth about what has happened in the past, what is happening now, and how we can use that knowledge to plan the future. Such positivity is what will chart the course of our political and economic future.
Joe the plumber, you are really freakin negative!!